Browns at Eagles
This game opened with the Eagles favored by seven at home and with an over/under of 45 points. Following the announcement of the Sam Bradford trade, the Eagles are now favored by four, and the over/under has dropped to 41 points. The Browns have the slate’s second-lowest implied total with 18.5 points, while the implied team total for the Eagles is now 22.5.
Cleveland Browns
Writer: Zach Rabinovitz
QB – Robert Griffin
Griffin’s rookie campaign was historically efficient. While producing a league-best adjusted yards per attempt of 8.6, Griffin also added 800 yards and seven TDs on the ground — good enough for RB24 in 2015. Then in 2013 the injuries started mounting. From 2012 to 2013 Football Outsiders moved RGIII down 17 spots in their rankings for QBs both against and without pressure. He’s going against an Eagles defense that last year allowed the fifth-highest Opponent Plus/Minus to quarterbacks. At 26 years old (a year younger than his 2012 draft mate Russell Wilson), Griffin still has hope, but he’s nevertheless in a low-volume offense that will rely on big plays from the wide receivers. Griffin’s ceiling is not in doubt but his projected ownership (five to eight percent) makes him less of a tournament option.
RB – Isaiah Crowell
Crowell sets up as a nice contrarian play this week. While serving as the offensive coordinator in Cincinnati, head coach Hue Jackson was fourth in the NFL in run plays in one-score games (48 percent). In 2015, Crowell only saw 15-plus touches on five occasions but scored an average of 16.7 and 15.5 points on Draftkings and FanDuel, nearly five points above his current ceiling projections. If this game stays close, Crowell could see some run and have a nice outing.
RB – Duke Johnson
As an underdog, Johnson produced an average Plus/Minus of 3.8 DK points in 2015. Despite Johnson’s Consistency last year, his ownership maxed out at 3.5 percent.
However, whereas Duke was often priced down last year, this year he opens above the $5,000 salary mark and $600 more expensive than he ever was in 2015. With this higher salary comes a higher implied point total of 10.74 DK points, a mark Johnson failed to exceed in 66% of his games last year.
WR – Corey Coleman
Coleman comes into the weekend as the highest-ranked wide receiver in the DraftKings Cash Model and is expected to serve as the primary punt returner for the Browns. Despite Coleman’s unimpressive preseason, in which he caught only one of six targets for 10 yards, he enters Sunday expected to be Griffin’s top receiving option.
WR – Terrelle Pryor
At only $3,000, Pryor has an implied point total of fewer than six DK points and one of the highest Bargain Ratings at the position (87 percent). Pryor is in a sneaky good spot, as he’s set to match up primarily with Eagles cornerback Leodis McKelvin, who has been targeted nearly two times more than the Eagles top corner on a per route basis (according to Pro Football Focus). Not surprisingly, minimum-salary players tend to underperform but Pryor’s ceiling projection of 13.1 points makes him one of the most intriguing cheap options on the slate.
WR – Andrew Hawkins
Hawkins will see a slight target bump while No. 1 wide receiver Josh Gordon serves his suspension. Even so, Hawk is at best just the fourth receiving option on the Browns behind tight end Gary Barnidge, Coleman/Pryor, and Johnson. In what projects to be a low-scoring game, Hawkins does not have the market share or touchdown upside (2.1 percent career touchdown rate) to support his current price. Hawkins’ Projected Plus/Minus of -3.6 makes him an easy fade.
TE – Gary Barnidge
Barnidge comes into the week tied for the most DK Pro Trends for tight ends at 11, and he ranks highly in our Models for both DK and FD. Last year Barnidge led all tight ends in receiving touchdown market share at 45 percent and was second only to Antonio Gates in red-zone targets per game. While I expect those numbers to regress, Barnidge remains the only proven red-zone receiving threat for the Browns.
Philadelphia Eagles
Writer: Kelly McCann
QB – Carson Wentz
Wentz is not only a rookie, but because of some fractured ribs he’s a rookie who took just 39 snaps and threw 24 passes the entire preseason. According to reports out of Philly, despite the limited reps the Eagles are “ecstatic about his progress.” Prior to the NFL Draft, Greg Cosell said, “Wentz is more talented than either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota.” Wentz was drafted No. 2 overall after throwing for 42 touchdowns in just 23 games as a redshirt junior and senior. Wentz did play at North Dakota State in the Football Championship Subdivision, so the defenses he will face on Sundays will be a huge challenge. In terms of data, there’s not a lot to go on. In comparable spots last season, Mariota and Winston combined for a +3.91 Plus/Minus with 72.7 percent Consistency.
RB – Ryan Mathews
Mathews faces a Cleveland defense that allowed the second-most 100-yard rushing games last season. The Browns gave up 1,841 yards on the ground (the second-highest total in the NFL), on their way to yielding 18.5 fantasy points per game to running backs — the 11th-highest total in the league. Per our Trends tool, running backs with comparable salaries, while favored at home and playing similar rush defenses, have delivered a +3.58 Plus/Minus on FanDuel with 58.5 percent Consistency. When targeting Matthews, consider him on FD, where he holds the 10th-highest rating in the Bales Player Model with a 99 percent Bargain Rating.
Eagles starting right tackle Lane Johnson is reportedly facing a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs. He’s currently in a Roger Goodell-imposed limbo but is available to play in Week 1 while the league waits to hand down its formal decision. Mathews will have Johnson blocking for him this weekend.
RB – Darren Sproles
When priced between $5,300 and $5,900 on FD (where his Bargain Rating is 82 percent this week), Sproles has produced a +1.30 Plus/Minus with 47.1 percent Consistency. Offensive coordinator Frank Reich wants to get Sproles the football, and running backs targeted between four to six times per game have previously generated a +1.46 Plus/Minus. Keep in mind, however, that the Browns defense allowed 62 receptions to running backs in 2015, the third-fewest in the NFL. That said, the Eagles punt returner offers unique multi-touchdown and correlation upside when paired with Philadelphia’s D/ST.
Additionally, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reports that Sproles could see extra red-zone work a la Danny Woodhead, who played last year under now-Eagles offensive coordinator Frank Reich. Sproles could be a source of unanticipated production.
WR – Jordan Matthews
The Browns pass defense allowed a +2.10 Opponent Plus/Minus to wide receivers last season. That unit remains largely intact, save the addition of PFF’s third-worst cornerback, Jamar Taylor. According to our Matchups tool, Matthews will primarily line up opposite Taylor with one of PFF’s top-10 advantages. J-Matt checks in with a top-20 rating in CSURAM88’s Model and is most attractive on FD with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Wide receivers playing in similar situations have previously manufactured a +2.41 Plus/Minus on FD with 61.0 percent Consistency.
WR – Nelson Agholor
Speaking of poorly-graded cornerbacks: The Browns’ Joe Haden was PFF’s worst-graded corner last season. But because Agholor (projected to line up against Haden) is PFF’s lowest-graded wide receiver, he doesn’t enjoy nearly the same matchup advantage as Matthews does. If for some reason you’re interested in a bad wide receiver catching passes from a potentially injured rookie quarterback, look to Agholor on DraftKings, where he has an 87 percent Bargain Rating.
WR – Dorial Green-Beckham
DGB is still a ‘Titan’ on DK so don’t try to play him there. According to Football Outsiders, the Browns last year ranked 31st at defending wide receivers other than the top-two receivers. Green-Beckham is a physical freak at 6’5″ and 237 pounds. According to Player Profiler, his 90.9 percent contested catch rate was the best in the NFL.
Of course, after a month with the team he is reportedly still learning the playbook. Given that DGB is known for being unstudious and apparently never grasped the offense in Tennessee, DGB’s learning curve in Philly isn’t surprising.
TE – Zach Ertz
Cleveland allowed 10 touchdowns to tight ends last season, the third-highest total in the league. Ertz struggled through frustrating usage in Chip Kelly‘s offense in 2015, but Doug Pederson looks ready to let him eat in the new Eagles offense. Priced at $5,700 on FD, Ertz is currently the fourth-rated tight end in the Bales Player Model. Tight ends with comparable salaries and projected ceilings on FD have generated a +3.08 Plus/Minus with 58.5 percent Consistency. With projected ownership of five to eight percent, Ertz could be a sneaky tournament pivot away from higher-priced options.
TE – Brent Celek
Celek’s $2,700 salary and 86 percent Bargain Rating on DK make him a viable option for those choosing to punt the tight end position in tournaments on that site. While the offensive coordinator in Kansas City in 2014, Pederson’s tight ends (Travis Kelce and Anthony Fasano) combined for 50 percent of the team’s touchdowns, and Fasano (2014’s version of Celek) caught 22 percent of them. At projected zero to one percent ownership, Celek would pay off huge if he’s able to secure a touchdown.
