In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are two wide receivers near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Tyreek Hill
- Tutu Atwell
We’ll discuss why these two are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Tyreek Hill ($8,200 DraftKings, $8,800 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (51 total)
Few players in the league play a bigger role in their team than Tyreek Hill. Hill had 32% of Miami’s receptions and 36% of the team’s receiving yards. He averaged a league-high 3.08 yards per route, which is incredible. Considering Tua Tagovailoa dealt with injuries throughout the season, that makes this feat all the more impressive.
Hill had a peculiar game against Los Angeles last year, catching four passes for 81 yards and a touchdown while picking up a fumble and running it for a touchdown en route to 24.1 DraftKings points. It was one of eight games over 20 DraftKings points on the year for Hill.
His ceiling is matched by few, and Hill had games of 45, 32.7, 34.5, 30.3, and 32.6 DraftKings points.
The matchup is middling, as the Chargers gave up the 12th-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers last season. However, Hill is matchup-proof, as his role and talent trump any defense.
He’s the top receiver in our Cash Game and Tournament Models.
Tutu Atwell ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Rams (+4.5) at Seattle Seahawks (46 total)
Tutu Atwell is likely to be a popular option on Sunday, but for good reason. With Cooper Kupp sidelined, there’s a lot of target volume up for grabs. Atwell averaged about four targets per game in the second half of last season.
He didn’t see any work in the preseason, which shows that Sean McVay was confident in Atwell’s role in the offense and wanted to save him for the regular season.
This Seahawks secondary is legit, as they allowed the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing receivers last year. However, Atwell is extremely cheap, and as nearly a touchdown underdog, Los Angeles should be throwing and playing catch up.
Atwell ranks second in Points/Salary on the weekend and is the top receiver in both Sean Koerner and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
Other Notable NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Justin Jefferson ($8,800 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel): Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (46 total)
In Tyreek Hill’s write-up, I talked about how few players can match Hill’s ceiling. Justin Jefferson is certainly one of those players. Jefferson had eight games over 30 DraftKings points last season, including four times in a five-week stretch. The midseason acquisition of T.J. Hockenson helped Jefferson as well, as he was able to be used deeper down the field while Hockenson manned the underneath areas.
We’re not too concerned about matchups for guys of Jefferson’s caliber, but it’s worth noting that Tampa Bay gave up the ninth-most DraftKings points to opposing wide receivers last season. It’s a loose pricing week, so you should have enough money to plug Jefferson into your lineups.
Mike Williams ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (51 total)
A lot of people will flock to the Chargers and Dolphins game as it is the lone one on the main slate with a total north of 50 points. Mike Williams is underpriced and shouldn’t see too much ownership. He battled injuries in the 2022 campaign but is poised for a good 2023.
Williams sees far more usage against man coverage, with a 31.8% target rate per route run compared to 16.6% against zone coverage. Miami played man coverage at the second-highest rate last season. We saw Williams succeed in this matchup last year, with six catches for 116 yards and a touchdown.
Don’t overthink it, Mike Williams looks awesome this weekend.
Jayden Reed ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+1) at Chicago Bears (41.5 total)
With Christian Watson out, and Romeo Doubs nursing a hamstring injury, Jayden Reed will need to step up for the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, He’ll likely see a lot of work, and we know Jordan Love is confident in him. Reed ran 25 routes with Love under center in the preseason and had a 24% target rate per route run compared to Doubs at 21.1% and Watson at 16.7%.
Reed’s original outlook for this year was solely in the slot, where he played 73% of his preseason snaps. However, with Watson out, it may lead to Reed seeing some snaps on the perimeter.
Chicago got gouged by slot receivers last year, allowing the second-most yards per target.
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My Favorite NFL DFS Wide Receiver Leverage Pick(s)
Amari Cooper ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,700 FanDuel): Cleveland Browns (+2) vs. Cincinnati Bengals (47.5 total)
Amari Cooper and Deshaun Watson weren’t able to get much going last season. However, as touched on in the quarterback article, I’m giving Watson a pass for his play last season. With a full offseason under their belt, I’m confident that the Browns passing game will start the season on a far better note.
Cooper was a very boom-or-bust wide receiver last season, with six games of 20+ DraftKings points and seven games of single-digit DraftKings points. Cooper boasts a high ceiling but is currently outside the top 15 in projected wide receiver ownership.
He makes a great stacking partner with Watson and a solid low-owned option in tournaments.
Zay Flowers ($4,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans (43.5)
Rashod Bateman will likely be eased back into play after suffering a Lisfranc injury, and Odell Beckham Jr. may not have a full workload either. Luckily, rookie receiver Zay Flowers is healthy and talented on an offense that is transitioning to a more pass-heavy approach under Todd Monken.
Flowers ran eight routes in the preseason but caught both of his targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. Houston didn’t see much passing volume against them last season, but they gave up big plays through the air. They allowed 8.6 yards per target and 13.3 yards per catch, both ranking in the bottom-seven in the league.
Flowers is currently projected for 3% ownership but could be the lead target on an offense with a near-four touchdown implied team total.
With guys like Tutu Atwell, Marvin Mims Jr., and Jayden Reed projecting for some ownership at the stone minimum, Zay Flowers, for just $1,000 more, looks like an awesome pivot.
