The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Hurts at New England Patriots – $7,800 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
Using a 50-50 blend of the FantasyLabs Projections and THE BLITZ projections, Hurts has the highest ceiling projection of any QB on this Sunday’s main slate by a narrow margin over Lamar Jackson. Hurts is the most expensive option on FanDuel but only the second-most expensive QB on DraftKings. He’ll be taking on the Patriots in one of the later afternoon matchups as a four-point favorite in a game that has a 45-point total.
Hurts broke through with a massive season last year, totaling 3,701 passing yards and 22 passing touchdowns in just 15 regular-season games. His fantasy value also got a huge boost from his 13 rushing touchdowns. Over the past calendar year, Hurts averaged 27.5 DraftKings points and 27 FanDuel points per game with an average Plus/Minus of 3.3 DraftKings points and 4.8 FanDuel points.
While the Patriots ranked in the middle of the pack against opposing QBs last year, they did struggle against mobile QBs, allowing nearly five yards per carry on the ground. His new backfield rotation should boost his production even more since he has some great pass-catching options but is expected to retain his responsibilities near the goal line.
Hurts and the Eagles are one of the Super Bowl favorites coming into the year, and they’ll look to establish themselves as legitimate contenders with a good showing on the road in Week 1.
If you use value plays, you can build around an Eagles stack with A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert also projected to have a good start to the season.
Top Value: Anthony Richardson vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,600 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel
The value potential with Richardson is sky-high in his NFL debut, although the risk is also definitely there since he’s totally unproven. While the No. 4 overall pick didn’t exactly tear up training camp, he easily secured the starting role and will try to give the Colts a look at how bright their future can be as he opens at home against the Jags.
Using the 50-50 blended projections, Richardson has the 10th-highest ceiling projection of all QBs on DraftKings and the eighth-highest on FanDuel despite the fact that he’s priced outside the top 12 options on both sites. Richardson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites as well by a wide margin over value fliers like Baker Mayfield and Sam Howell.
Much of Richardson’s fantasy potential comes from his ability as a rusher, and without Jonathan Taylor (ankle), he’ll be asked to carry even more of the workload on the ground. While there are sure to be growing pains as Richardson adjusts to the NFL, there is the potential for an elite rushing game and plenty of garbage time production against the Jags. His combination of size and speed give him a high ceiling in every contest, and don’t forget that coach Shane Steichen is the one who made both Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts into fantasy assets early in their career.
There’s definitely risk building around Richardson, but his upside makes him my favorite value play of the week, especially for GPP, where boom-or-bust production is rewarded.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Austin Ekeler vs. Miami Dolphins – $8,400 on DraftKings, $9,000 on FanDuel
One of the most exciting Week 1 matchups should be the Chargers and the Dolphins, which has a massive total of 51 points, the highest of any matchup on this main slate. Since the game should feature plenty of offense and points to go around, Ekeler edges out Christian McCaffrey with the top ceiling projection for this week in THE BLITZ projections for both DraftKings and FanDuel. CMC is a little more expensive for his matchup with the Steelers, so Ekeler looks like a good place to take a little savings and actually end up in a better matchup.
Ekeler led all running backs in targets and receptions last season while averaging a robust 21 DraftKings points and 18.9 FanDuel points per game. He will be playing in the final year of his contract, so he should be lined up for a huge workload with plenty of motivation coming into the year.
Even in a new offense, Ekeler should be set up for at least 20 touches (rushes and receptions) and should remain one of Justin Herbert’s top targets. Last year, he averaged 7.5 targets per game, which gives him both a high floor and a high ceiling. That consistent work in a game that should have plenty of points makes him stand out as the top ceiling play this week.
On FanDuel, Ekeler matches a slate-high 10 Pro Trends and no other running back matches more than seven. On DraftKings, he matches a slate-high eight Pro Trends as well.
Top Value: Rachaad White vs. Minnesota Vikings – $5,500 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
The Bucs will look remarkably different this year, and it’s not just because Tom Brady retired (allegedly). In the backfield, the departure of Leonard Fournette should leave White as the lead back. Sean Tucker and Chase Edmonds could get some work, but White looks lined up for 15 to 20 touches against the Vikings in Week 1.
As a result, White has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus of all RBs on Week 1’s main slate on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel, where he’s priced up a little bit. On DraftKings, he has an 82% Bargain Rating, where he also matches six Pro Trends, tied for third-most of any RB this week.
White was very involved as a pass-catcher last season with 50 catches for 290 yards and two touchdowns. Only 11 running backs in the NFL reached that 50-catch plateau, and with more snaps coming his way, he should be even more involved this year.
Based on his expected volume, White should be set to outproduce his mid-range salary point against the Vikings.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $8,800 on DraftKings, $9,500 on FanDuel
There are two elite wide receivers who jump out at the top of the models this week: Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill. Jefferson has slightly higher projections across the board and offers lower projected ownership, offering a chance to pay up for a little leverage. Both are in good matchups, but the Bucs were significantly more generous to opposing receivers last year, allowing the ninth-most DraftKings points to opposing receivers per game.
Last year, Jefferson paced the NFL with 128 receptions and 1,809 receiving yards. He has averaged 96.5 receiving yards per game in his three years in the NFL, the highest mark of any receiver in NFL history.
In Week 1 of last season, Jefferson got out of the gate with a fast start hauling in nine catches for 184 yards and a pair of touchdowns to produce 42.4 DraftKings points. He could be in store for another monster game to start the season since Tampa Bay’s secondary doesn’t really have anyone who should be able to slow him down.
He’s an expensive play, for sure, but he also has the potential to break the slate if he hits his ceiling.
Top Value: Marvin Mims Jr. vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel
There are always great value receiver options available in Week 1, and Mims is one of the rookies our models think will pop with a big Week 1. On DraftKings, Mims is available at the minimum salary with an 87% Bargain Rating and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any receiver on the slate using the blended projections. On FanDuel, he’s a little more expensive but still ranks in the top five of projected Plus/Minus.
With Jerry Jeudy (hamstring) likely sidelined, Mims will get more work alongside Courtland Sutton and is expected to start alongside the veteran in this juicy matchup with the Raiders. With Tim Patrick (Achilles) and KJ Hamler (heart condition) no longer options either, Mims and Sutton will both be heavily targeted on Sunday if Jeudy is out as expected.
The Broncos traded up to draft Mims in the second round out of Oklahoma, hoping he could develop into a vertical threat. He posted impressive totals and averages for the Sooners, with over 1,000 receiving yards with a 20+ yards per catch average in his final college season.
Coach Sean Payton’s offense has made receivers with similar skill sets very successful in fantasy in the past, and Mims definitely has breakout potential immediately in his expanded role.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: T.J. Hockenson vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $5,900 on DraftKings, $7,200 on FanDuel
With no Travis Kelce on this slate and Mark Andrews (quad) also dealing with an injury, Hockenson becomes a great pay-up option for production if you have the salary available. His ceiling projection is behind only Andrews’ on both DraftKings and FanDuel in our blended projections
Hockenson was traded from the Lions to the Vikings in the middle of the year last year, but he quickly became the second option in the passing game behind only Jefferson. He averaged 8.6 targets, 6.0 catches, and 51.9 receiving yards in 10 games with the Vikings, exceeding salary-based expectations in three of his final four games with an Average Plus/Minus of +8.1.
The Vikings committed to Hockenson long-term with a monster contract this offseason, and he should continue to be a key part of their offense this season. The fact that he opens the schedule against the Buccaneers makes him an even better option since Tampa Bay allowed the third-most DraftKings points to tight ends last season.
Top Value: Chigoziem Okonkwo at New Orleans Saints – $3,800 on DraftKings, $5,100 on FanDuel
There are plenty of great value options available at tight end, including Hayden Hurst in his new role with the Panthers and Tyler Higbee, who may have to help pick up the slack in Los Angeles with Cooper Kupp sidelined. There could also be value from the Broncos’ and Packers’ depth charts, depending on how those rotations play out.
My favorite play in this spot, though, is Okonkwo, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both FanDuel and DraftKings in the blended projections. Okonkwo emerged as a threat for the Titans in the second half of last season with at least three catches in six of his last seven games and a pair of touchdowns while averaging 34.7 yards per game. He steps into the top TE spot to start this season after Austin Hooper departed via free agency.
He has the raw tools to be a successful option for Ryan Tannehill, who also now has DeAndre Hopkins to work with. The Saints were usually strong against the TE last year, but Okonkwo still brings too much upside to ignore at this low salary.
He’s a “swing for the fences” play that could pay off in Week 1.
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