The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for Week 1.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Herbert vs. Las Vegas Raiders – $7,600 on DraftKings, $8,400 on FanDuel
To kick off the 2022 NFL season, Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert projects for the highest ceiling, facing a team in the Las Vegas Raiders, who last season were ranked 17th in defensive DVOA, according to Football Outsiders.
In one of the highest totaled matchups on the week, currently, a 52-point total, expect Herbert to continue to employ a pass-heavy scheme, with the Chargers using a 63%/37% pass-to-run play calling script with an up-tempo 24.5 seconds, per snap, which was the third-fastest in the league, according to RotoViz.
Look for wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams to again be the primary targets for Herbert, responsible for more than 45% of the Chargers’ target share. Herbert also has a strong 0.57 correlation to his WR1, dating back to the 2020 season.
Per the Trends tool, when Herbert appears in matchups above a 52-point total, he averages 22.97 actual DraftKings points, with a +1.03 Plus/Minus with a 57% consistency.
Herbert’s preference to move the offense through the air in what looks to be a shootout against an AFC West rival could align for the potential to reach an 85th-percentile outcome.
Conversely, THE BLITZ projects Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson for the highest ceiling, facing the New York Jets in week one. The dual-threat quarterback looks to have an ideal matchup, facing a Jets defense that last year ranked last in defensive DVOA, and as a heavy favorite can torch the less-than-stellar defense through the air, likely targeting wide receiver Rashod Bateman and tight end Mark Andrews
Top Value: Jalen Hurts at Detroit Lions – $6,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts projects to be a top value, priced at a discounted $6,800 on DraftKings for Week 1. Hurts and the Eagles, who are currently a four-point road favorite, against the Detroit Lions, who ranked 29th in DVOA, but accordingly to PFF, rank as the 14th best defense.
Like Jackson, Hurts is a dual-threat option, leading an offense that last year ran a balanced 51%/49% pass-to-run ratio at a 26.1 seconds-per-snap pace. Keep an eye on wide receiver A.J. Brown, who should see the bulk of targets from Hurts and should be the default stacking option, priced at $6,800 on DraftKings and $7,100 on FanDuel.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Jonathan Taylor at Houston Texans – $9,100 on DraftKings, $10,200 on FanDuel
The most expensive running back on the slate, Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor projects for the highest ceiling, facing a Houston Texans defense that ranked 23rd in rushing DVOA last season and could easily produce an 85th-percentile outcome.
Last season, Taylor averaged 19.5 rushing attempts per game and 5.45 yards per rush and was the leader in the Colts’ rushing script, seeing 67.16% of the market share of rushes. Not only was Taylor an integral part of the run game, but he also averaged three targets per game, averaging nine yards per reception.
The Colts are a seven-point favorite against Houston and expect Taylor to play a significant role in moving the Colts’ offense forward, staying on the field for 69% of the snaps (per the FantasyPros Snap Count tool), and could see additional carries toward the end of the game if Matt Ryan and the Colts are ahead.
Top Value: Najee Harris at Cincinnati Bengals – $6,400 on DraftKings, $8,200 on FanDuel
Najee Harris should likely continue his production for the Pittsburgh Steelers, seeing a league-leading 84% of offensive snaps last season, projecting as a top value on DraftKings. Harris, who was responsible for 73.9% of the Steelers’ rushing workload, averaged 3.91 yards per carry, seeing 15 or more rushing attempts in 11 games last season, and looks to be a figure in the Steelers’ passing game, seeing 5.5 targets per game.
Harris’s value on DraftKings should make him a popular option, despite facing a tough Bengals defense ranked 13th in rushing DVOA.
Look for Harris to be a viable bring-back option for Bengals’ wide receivers Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd, and might see an uptick in targets from quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who might opt for a more pass-heavy focus as a 3.5-point underdog.
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Justin Jefferson vs. Green Bay Packers – $7,800 on DraftKings, $8,100 on FanDuel
Justin Jefferson projects for the highest ceiling among wide receivers this week and has extreme potential to reach a 75th-percentile outcome in a classic NFC North matchup with the Green Bay Packers, in what looks to be a close matchup, with the Vikings currently a 1.5-point underdog at home.
Jefferson should also continue to be the preferred option for quarterback Kirk Cousins, seeing 29% of the Vikings’ target share, averaging 9.8 targets, and is a deep-threat option, averaging 15 yards per reception. Green Bay’s defense last season ranked 16th in pass DVOA and looks to be a more ideal matchup for the young wideout and Jefferson should see an uptick in target if Minnesota happens to fall behind late.
Look for Jefferson to also find production in the red zone. Last season, Jefferson had been targeted in the red zone 20 times, putting him ninth among all pass-catchers (per AddMoreFunds).
Given the expected high target share and big-play upside, Jefferson is likely to produce a ceiling game, almost exclusively on targets.
Top Value: Wan’Dale Robinson at Tennessee Titans – $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,700 on FanDuel
New York Giants rookie wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson projects as a top value at the wide receiver position for Week 1, priced at the minimum salary on DraftKings. As 5.5-point road favorites, the Giants and Robinson look to face a difficult Titans defense ranked 11th in pass DVOA.
Last season, the Giants were among one of the more pass-friendly teams in the league, seeing a 61%/39% pass-to-run play-calling scheme, and quarterback Daniel Jones may increase the cadence if behind late in the game, which should signal additional opportunities for Robinson to be a fantasy-viable option but should be a popular choice to unlock high-priced options and stacks.
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at Arizona Cardinals – $6,600 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel
Going back to last season, if Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is on the slate, be sure to give him a strong look. Priced at $6,600 on DraftKings, Kelce projects for the highest ceiling among tight ends, in a marquee matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, in a game with a 53-point total, the highest on the slate.
Led by quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs ran an extremely pass-heavy offense, calling a 63%/37% pass-to-run split. Kelce saw a 21% target share and should see an uptick in production due to the departure of Tyreek Hill. Not only is Kelce likely to see the volume needed for an 85th-percentile outcome, but also has an extreme touchdown upside, targeted 14 times in the red zone last season.
Look for this matchup to be prime for the superstar tight end, despite facing a Cardinals defense ranked sixth in pass DVOA last season.
Kelce is virtually matchup-proof.
Top Value: Cole Kmet vs. San Francisco 49ers – $3,700 on DraftKings, $5,000 on FanDuel
Cole Kmet should continue to see production in the Chicago Bears offense, responsible for 17% of the target share, which was second only to wide receiver Darnell Mooney.
Last season, Kmet averaged 10.2 yards per reception and saw five or more targets in 12 games. Deeply discounted at $3,700, Kmet should easily become a fantasy viable option, especially facing a 49ers defense ranked 15th in pass DVOA last season.
Further, quarterback Justin Fields and the Bears are a massive 6.5-point home underdog and should increase their 57% pass rate from last season to keep this game competitive.
