The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Oh yeah! And our SimLabs Lineup Generator gives you the ability to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
You can check out our in-depth SimLabs guide here.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Josh Allen vs. Arizona Cardinals – $8,000 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
In Sean Koerner’s, Chris Rayon’s, and THE BLITZ projections, Allen has the highest ceiling projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In an evenly-blended aggregate of those three projections, which we’ll use throughout these model picks, Allen has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all quarterbacks this week by a significant margin. Since he’s the most expensive QB play, his ownership projection is relatively low, so he actually represents a good source for some leverage as well.
Allen was a fantasy beast last season, throwing for 4,306 yards and 29 touchdowns while running for a career-high 15 touchdowns as well. He has over 4,000 passing yards and at least 100 carries in five straight seasons in Buffalo and is reliably one of the top fantasy producers at the position.
This season, the Bills will have to adjust to the departure of Stefon Diggs, but the new situation could put more responsibility on Allen to create with his legs, giving him a very high upside as a dual threat.
The Cardinals are a very favorable matchup for Allen and the Bills in Week 1. Last season, the Cardinals gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 32 passing touchdowns and five rushing scores, along with 225.2 passing yards per game.
In that good matchup at home, Allen’s Bills have the highest implied team total of the Sunday afternoon games. The Bills will be looking to make a statement that they’re still a force to be reckoned even without Diggs, so Allen should come out hot in Week 1. If you can find value in other places, Allen makes sense as a pay-up play at quarterback.
Top Value: Anthony Richardson vs. Houston Texans – $6,300 on DraftKings, $8,300 on FanDuel
In the three-way aggregated projection, Richardson has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on DraftKings, edging out Jayden Daniels and Daniel Jones. On FanDuel, Daniels has the top spot since Richardson is priced much higher on that site. The price disparity between the two sides gives Richardson a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and makes him too good of a value to overlook.
Richardson brings risk since he is basically still a rookie after losing most of last year due to injury. His upside is apparent from that limited action, though. He started last year with over 20 DraftKings points against the Jags and went off for over 30 DraftKings points in Week 4 against the Rams. In his three games before sustaining a season-ending injury, he ran for four touchdowns and threw for 200 yards in two of those three contests.
He matches the most Pro Trends of any QB on Sunday’s slate on DraftKings and has the third-highest ceiling projection of all quarterbacks. Since he only has the seventh-highest salary, he makes a great value place to start your lineup.
Last year, Richardson did face the Texans in Week 2 and had 35 rushing yards and two rushing scores before sustaining a concussion which knocked him out of that game and the following week. He’ll look to deliver another big game either on the ground or through the air to get this season off to a strong start. The matchup between him and C.J. Stroud should be a very entertaining game to watch and sets up what could be a high-scoring game indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Bijan Robinson vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – $7,700 on DraftKings, $8,800 on FanDuel
Robinson will hope a new offensive system in Atlanta will help unlock his fantasy upside after struggling to get consistent work under coach Arthur Smith. Robinson has the highest ceiling projection of all running backs in the aggregate projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is expected to be heavily involved as both rusher and receiver.
In his rookie year, Robinson had 976 rushing yards but only scored four rushing touchdowns. He did add four receiving touchdowns while adding 487 receiving yards. He averaged over 15 DraftKings points per game, but he often lost work in goal-line opportunities and late in games to Tyler Allgeier, frustrating fantasy owners who paid up for him.
This year, new OC Zac Robinson and new QB Kirk Cousins should bring more explosiveness to the Falcons’ offense. The new-look attack will open the year at home against the Steelers. With Robinson featuring as a true three-down back, he stands out from the rest of the running backs on Week 1’s main slate since several other superstars are playing in primetime.
Top Value: Rachaad White – $6,300 on DraftKings, $7,700 on FanDuel
Rachaad White ties Robinson for matching most Pro Trends on DraftKings in Week 1, and he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all running backs on that site in the three-way aggregated projections. Like Richardson at quarterback, White is much cheaper on DraftKings than on FanDuel in Week 1. He has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has the sixth-highest ceiling projection at the 10th-highest salary.
White had a big year last year for the Bucs, who won the NFC South. He played in all 17 regular season games and racked up 990 rushing yards and 549 receiving yards with nine total touchdowns. He averaged 16 DraftKings points per game and is expected to serve as the team’s lead back this year, even though Tampa added some depth with the draft pick of Bucky Irving.
The Commanders gave up the second-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs last season, so this should be a smash spot for White in Week 1. They gave up 19 running back touchdowns in their 17 games, including at least one rushing score in each of their last six contests.
White looked good in his preseason cameo, and he should be in a good spot to carry the load and return good value at this salary of just over $6,000 on DraftKings.
If you have to dig deeper, there is more risk in the bargain bin of running backs. The projections are split on which cheap plays make sense. Koerner’s indicates Jaleel McLaughlin of the Broncos could be a steal, while Raybon’s and THE BLITZ point to Chuba Hubbard, who I highlighted in my Early Values for Week 1.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Tyreek Hill vs. Jacksonville Jaguars – $8,700 on DraftKings, $9,600 on FanDuel
It’s been a big offseason of big-time receivers getting monster paydays, and Hill got in on the action by restructuring his deal with the Dolphins. He starts the year with the top ceiling, median, and floor projection of all receivers on the Week 1 slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Even though he’s one of the most expensive plays on both sites, he brings good value potential since his ceiling is so high. He has the third-highest Pts/Sal in the aggregate projections on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel.
Hill led the league last year with 1,799 receiving yards and tied with Mike Evans for the league lead with 13 touchdowns. He and Tua Tagovailoa will look to continue to click like they did last year in coach Mike McDaniel’s high-flying, big-play offense.
The speedster always brings a high ceiling with a large target share and plenty of home-run potential. He was dealing with a thumb injury in preseason, but he is off the injury report and ready to get off to a fast start in Week 1 against the Jaguars.
Last year, Jacksonville ranked in the top 10 best matchups for receivers, giving up 19 wide receiver touchdowns in 17 regular season games and an average of over 150 receiving yards per game to opposing receivers.
Top Value: Rome Odunze vs. Tennessee Titans – $4,000 on DraftKings, $5,800 on FanDuel
One of the most exciting things to watch in Week 1 will be the NFL debuts of all the rookie quarterbacks. No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams will make his debut for the Bears, and if he can get the offense firing on all cylinders, Odunze will be an amazing value, especially on DraftKings.
Odunze’s salary on DraftKings is significantly lower than on FanDuel, giving him a 93% Bargain Rating. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers in the aggregate projection on DraftKings, and he has shown an electrifying upside since joining the Bears as the No. 9 overall pick in last year’s draft.
The big, physical receiver has huge upside as a red-zone target and can make big plays after the catch. He showed a strong rapport with Williams in their preseason and his short-term and long-term ceiling is extremely high.
The one major risk factor with Odunze in Week 1 is that he will have to compete for targets with proven receivers Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore. He has a low floor since his target share is shaky, but at only $4,000, he brings enough upside to outweigh that risk, according to our projections.
If you’re looking for receiver value on FanDuel, Chris Godwin has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and a 99% Bargain Rating. Joshua Palmer and DeMario Douglas also appear extremely underpriced and should be heavily involved in their teams’ passing games.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Trey McBride at Buffalo Bills – $6,100 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
McBride has the highest ceiling and floor projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections, along with the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel.
McBride had a huge breakout over the second half of last season, averaging over seven catches per game and scoring three touchdowns in his last 10 games. In the eight games started by Kyler Murray, McBride had two 100-yard games and hauled in 53 of 66 targets for 538 yards.
If Murray and McBride can stay healthy, McBride should be among the busiest tight ends with the highest ceilings most of the year. McBride had a 19.6% target share last season, the third-highest of the tight ends on this slate.
The Bills were pretty solid last year against tight ends overall last year, but Travis Kelce torched them for two touchdowns in their playoff loss. Since so much work is likely to come his way, McBride has a great ceiling in Week 1.
Top Value: Mike Gesicki vs. New England Patriots – $3,000 on DraftKings, $4,900 on FanDuel
This is definitely a “swing for the fences” pick, but Gesicki could be an elite value on DraftKings, where he only costs $3,000. Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts are “safer” values, but I’m ready to take a chance in Week 1 and roll with Gesicki in his Bengals debut.
Gesicki has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in the aggregated projections on DraftKings, and he’ll get some added motivation by facing his former squad in Week 1. He is actually listed behind Drew Sample on the team’s official depth chart, but that may be due to the fact that the team plans to use him more as a “big slot” instead of an in-line blocker. Gesicki also battled a little bit of unspecified “tightness” this preseason and hasn’t seen much action as a result.
He comes into this matchup under the radar, but he flashed some real potential during his three seasons in Miami before struggling last year in New England. With Joe Burrow under center making the Bengals a top passing attack, Gesicki has breakout potential if he gets regular playing time.
Both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have been limited in practice due to their injury and contract situations, and if the Bengals bring them along slowly, Gesicki could get more work this week. He’s boom-or-bust, but at $3,000, I love his ceiling.
If you’re looking to go cheap on FanDuel, Colby Parkinson of the Rams is in play since the Sunday Night Football game is included on the main slate. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the tight ends under $5,000.
