Tight end is one of the most difficult positions to nail down each week. It’s a position where you can spend all the way up, pay all the way down, or look somewhere in between. Tight ends derive a bunch of their value from scoring touchdowns, which can be difficult to predict on a week-to-week basis.
In this piece, I highlight tight ends who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
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Kyle Pitts ($4,600 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)
Just when I think I’m out, they pull me back in. Pitts entered the NFL with higher expectations than any tight end in NFL history, and so far, he hasn’t lived up to them. He did manage to crack 1,000 receiving yards as a rookie, but he’s averaged less than 40 yards per game in each of his past two seasons.
Of course, it’s hard to pin that solely on Pitts. He’s dealt with some of the worst quarterback play in football over that time frame, catching passes from the likes of Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, and Marcus Mariota. He’s also had to survive an Arthur Smith offense, which was dead last in Pass Rate Over Expectation by a wide margin last season.
Pitts should have a much friendlier set of circumstances to work with in 2024. The addition of Kirk Cousins gives the Falcons the potential for the largest boost in QB production in the NFL. Cousins is aging and coming off a significant injury, but he was as effective as ever when on the field last season. Among QBs with at least 350 snaps, Cousins was fifth in EPA + CPOE composite.
With better QB play and playcalling, perhaps Pitts will finally tap into his unlimited potential. From an athleticism standpoint, he’s one of the greatest TE prospects in history. He combines elite size with a 40-yard dash time that ranks in the 99th percentile.
That said, things can never just be easy with Pitts. He was limited at Wednesday’s practice, but he reassured everyone on Twitter that he was completely fine and would be out there on Sunday. As long as that’s the case, he’s tough to ignore at just $4,600 on DraftKings. He leads all TEs in our NFL Models in projected Plus/Minus by a pretty comfortable margin.
Trey McBride ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel)
While Pitts might be the clear-cut No. 1 on DraftKings, it’s hard to argue against finding the extra $100 for McBride on FanDuel. Like Pitts, McBride was an outstanding TE prospect, and the Cardinals selected him in the second round in 2022.
Unlike Pitts, McBride has turned that potential into some fantasy production. He came on strong down the stretch of his sophomore season once Kyler Murray returned to the lineup. Over his final eight games, McBride averaged 8.3 targets and 6.6 receptions per contest. That puts him on pace for more than 110 over a full 17-game season. He also averaged a healthy 67.3 receiving yards per game, and he cracked the 100-yard plateau in two of those contests.
He will have a bit more competition for targets this season with Marvin Harrison Jr. entering the fray, but McBride should still serve as the 1B in an underrated Cardinals’ offense. After Murray returned to the lineup, they were a top-nine unit in most offensive metrics.
McBride’s $6,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a 99% Bargain Rating, and this contest has the third-highest total on the slate. Overall, it’s hard to argue for anyone else as the top option.
Try out our NFL DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
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Evan Engram ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel)
Engram is not going to be sneaking up on anyone this week. He’s projected for the most ownership at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and given the volatility at tight end, it’s easy to just cross that player off your list for tournaments.
That said, SimLabs thinks that would be a mistake. Despite the top ownership projections, Engram is still showing up as potentially undervalued in Week 1. He’s in the optimal lineup in more than 25% of the simulations on DraftKings and more than 23% on FanDuel.
Engram has always had the skill set to be a threat in the passing game, but his time with the Giants was marred by inconsistency. Since joining the Jaguars, however, he’s emerged as one of the top receiving tight ends in football. He racked up a career-best 114 grabs and 963 yards in 2023, giving him a strong weekly floor at the position.
With Calvin Ridley now gone, the coast is clear for Engram to take on an even larger role in 2024. He draws a strong matchup in Week 1, with the Dolphins allowing the eighth-most PPR points to the position in 2023.
Dalton Kincaid ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
The Bills have completely overhauled their passing attack heading into this season. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, leaving an uninspiring group of journeymen and youngsters in their wake. It’s possible that their top receiver might not even be a receiver in 2024: Kincaid.
The 2023 first-rounder was utilized all over the formation in his rookie season, and we could see even more of that in 2024. Two-TE sets with Dawson Knox could become the baseline offense in Buffalo.
The Bills did go a bit more run-heavy down the stretch in 2024, but being the No. 1 pass-catcher in a Josh Allen offense still provides plenty of upside. Kincaid has the fifth-highest ceiling projection at the position on DraftKings, and he’s the No. 6 TE on FanDuel.
Like Engram, Kincaid isn’t expected to fly under the radar this week. He’s projected for roughly 10% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, but his optimal rates also check in above 10%. He showed up at the third-highest rate at the position on both sites, so he’s worth getting some exposure to.
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Jake Ferguson ($5,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel)
With CeeDee Lamb officially signing an extension, the Cowboys’ alpha pass-catcher will officially be in the lineup in Week 1. That said, there are still some extra targets to go around. Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard are gone, and the team didn’t really bring anyone in to replace them.
With that in mind, Ferguson could be looking at a few extra targets per game this season. Ferguson was already a decent fantasy TE – he had nine games with double-digit fantasy points last season – so that gives him a bit of appeal at just $5,200. He owns the second-highest optimal rate on DraftKings, but he’s projected for just 5.6% ownership. That gives him the highest leverage score of the week.
David Njoku ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Njoku is expected to be fairly chalky on FanDuel, where he’s significantly underpriced at $5,900. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, tying him with McBride for the top mark at the position.
However, his poor salary on DraftKings might actually work as a positive for tournaments. Njoku will not be nearly as popular on that site, but he provides the same amount of upside. He cracks the optimal lineup at the fifth-highest rate in our DraftKings simulations (7.09%), but he’s projected for less than 5% ownership.
Brock Bowers ($4,500 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel)
TE is a notoriously difficult position for rookie TEs to find success right out of the gates. However, it’s not impossible. We saw Sam LaPorta become a fantasy superstar as a rookie, and Bowers is arguably a superior prospect. A lot of people thought he was the best player in college football last season, and if not for six QBs coming off the board in the top 12 picks, he likely would’ve gone sooner.
Bowers’ Week 1 role is a bit of a question mark. The team has another highly drafted young TE in Michael Mayer, and both guys will have to catch passes from Gardner Minshew. It’s far from an ideal scenario.
Still, you don’t draft a TE as early as the Raiders did unless you plan to feature them. This is ultimately a play on his talent.
