In this piece, I highlight running backs who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three running backs who rank near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Jonathan Taylor
- Najee Harris
- Antonio Gibson
We’ll discuss why these are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other running backs.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Jonathan Taylor ($9,100 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel): Indianapolis Colts (-7) at Houston Texans (45.5 total)
Jonathan Taylor is looking to pick up right where he left off last season, where he totaled over 2,100 all-purpose yards and 20 total touchdowns. There are questions about how much of a role Nyhiem Hines will have this season, which could eat into Taylor’s workload. Head coach Frank Reich raved about Hines all off-season, which is something to keep an eye on. However, Hines is more of a pass-catching weapon, which should leave most of the carries for Taylor.
Receptions out of the backfield are one of the best avenues for running backs to reach their ceiling, so Taylor’s ceiling could potentially be lower than we’re used to. However, the Houston Texans would beg to differ.
Taylor touched up the Texans defense in each of last year’s matchups. Taylor totaled 158 yards and two touchdowns on just 15 touches in their first matchup last year, and then followed that up by shredding Lovie Smith’s defense once again for 143 yards on 32 touches while punching in another 2 touchdowns.
The Colts are a comfortable favorite in Houston on Sunday, meaning the ground attack should be in full effect. Taylor averaged a comfortable 25.11 touches per win last season, and there’s no reason for that to change this season. Taylor is the engine of the Colts offense, and they should lean on him on Sunday.
Taylor leads our Tournament Model on DraftKings and has the highest ceiling projection among running backs.
Najee Harris ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (44.5 total)
Najee Harris burst onto the scene in his rookie season, averaging 18.9 DraftKings points per game. Harris had double-digit carries in all but one game and consistently saw 4-6 targets per contest. Harris provided a nice floor with the potential to reach a massive ceiling if he had an efficient day.
Harris had five poor performances last year, with five games under 9.5 DraftKings points. As for the other 12 games he appeared in, Harris didn’t drop below 15 DraftKings points, with eight games of 20+ DraftKings points. Many are worried that a quarterback change will lead to a dropoff in targets for Harris. New quarterback Mitch Trubisky has notoriously peppered his running backs with targets, so Harris should still see his comfortable passing game usage.
The Bengals struggled somewhat against opposing running backs this past year. They surrendered the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs, as well as the fourth-most targets to opposing running backs.
The Steelers hold the second-lowest implied team total on the weekend, which could be cause for caution when it comes to rostering Harris. The low team total may ding Harris’ ceiling a little bit, but his high floor in touches will come in handy on a slate with a lot of question marks.
Harris leads one of our Pro Models, as well as our Cash Model on DraftKings.
Antonio Gibson ($5,800 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): Washington Commanders (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (44)
It’s been quite the offseason for Antonio Gibson, as his standing in Washington’s running back room was constantly in question. The tragic news with Brian Robinson will give Gibson a chance to reclaim the backfield, as Robinson is likely out until October. J.D. McKissic will steal some situational work from Gibson, but not much outside of that. Gibson will likely see 15+ touches against a mediocre Jaguars defense.
The Jags were actually in the middle of the pack this past season against opposing backs. They gave up the 15th-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Ten different backs were able to top 15 rush attempts against Jacksonville, with six of them eclipsing 100+ yards on the ground.
Gibson isn’t useless in the passing game either, as he saw at least two targets in all but one game last year. He saw 5+ targets in four different contests, at least proving that some passing game ceiling is there. A handful of targets to go along with around 15 carries against the Jaguars as a home favorite should be enough to reach fantasy value.
It is worrisome that Gibson’s role could be diminished if Washington falls behind, but Gibson was still able to see double-digit carries in all but three games this past year while limping to a 7-10 record. Gibson can still perform in losing efforts.
Gibson leads one of our Pro Models on DraftKings.
Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Christian McCaffrey ($8,500 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel): Carolina Panthers (PK) vs. Cleveland Browns (42 total)
It feels like it’s been forever since we’ve had Christian McCaffrey in our lives. After a fully healthy offseason, McCaffrey should be rejuvenated, running behind an offensive line that is reinforced with multiple draft picks and free agent signings. McCaffrey is one of few players with the upside of totaling 100 yards on the ground and through the air in the same game.
Despite appearing in only seven games in all of 2021 and fighting off injuries, McCaffrey had four games of 24.7+ DraftKings points.
The Browns were pretty solid against running backs last year, giving up the 14th-least fantasy points to opposing running backs. Cleveland did give up a few big performances to opposing backs last year, with Joe Mixon going for 28 DraftKings points and Austin Ekeler totaling 33.9. In McCaffrey’s seven total games with 30+ snaps the last two seasons, he’s averaging 27.7 DraftKings points per game.
The ceiling is sky-high, and if McCaffrey stays healthy, we won’t see him priced this cheap again all season.
Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-5.5) at Atlanta Falcons (43 total)
The days of Kamara seeing 15 targets per game from Drew Brees are gone, but he is still a great fantasy back with a high ceiling. Jameis Winston doesn’t check it down as much as Brees, but he still targets Kamara a good bit. Kamara saw 33 targets in six full games with Winston this past season before Winston’s ACL injury.
Kamara averaged 21 touches per game with Winston under center, and he’s facing off against the lowly Falcons this week. The Falcons surrendered the tenth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs in 2021 and ranked 30th in rush defense DVOA.
Kamara put up 20.4 and 21.2 DraftKings points in his two matchups with Atlanta last year, and a similar score is certainly within reach this weekend.
Aaron Jones ($6,700 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (47 total)
The Green Bay offense may turn into the Aaron Jones show with Davante Adams leaving town. Jones has played in eight games without Adams over the past three seasons. He’s averaged nearly seven targets per game, compared to 3.8 targets per game when Adams plays. Jones also averaged about 22 touches per game without Adams, as opposed to 17 per game with Adams.
With Adams in the picture last year, Jones had 20+ DraftKings points four times and flashed his massive ceiling with a performance of 41.5. Minnesota gave up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backs and gave up over 22.3 DraftKings points in five different games.
Aaron Jones’ ceiling is incredibly high this year, and there’s potential that this is the last time we see him in the $6,000 price range.
Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): New York Giants (+5.5) at Tennessee Titans (43.5 total)
Saquon Barkley appears to be fully healthy, and it seems like the Giants are going to feed him as many times as he can handle. Barkley started slowly in 2021 and then got into a groove post-ACL tear in Weeks 3 and 4 with 21.4 and 29.6 DraftKings points. Sadly, an ankle injury hampered Barkley for the rest of the season, and he never topped 20 DraftKings points for the rest of the year.
The matchup is difficult against Tennessee, as they allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing running backs this past season. However, Barkley should see ample usage. Barkley has been used in the passing game a good bit over his career.
With the Giants’ wide receiver room containing some question marks, Barkley could even see an uptick in passing game usage.
Dameon Pierce ($4,800 DraftKings, $5,400 FanDuel): Houston Texans (+7) vs. Indianapolis Colts (45.5 total)
Dameon Pierce has been a topic of discussion lately, as he won Houston’s starting running back job. We can expect Pierce to handle the early-down work for Houston. With veteran Rex Burkhead likely to see passing downs, it’s questionable as to how much work Pierce could see.
Houston is a big underdog this week, which is also working against Pierce. However, Colts All-Pro MLB Shaquille Leonard may miss this contest, and Houston’s offensive line appears to be underrated heading into the season. The ceiling may not be sky-high, but for a sub-$5,000 price, Pierce doesn’t need too much to pay off.
If Houston keeps this one close, Pierce could see a bevy of touches and pay off his price tag fairly easily.
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