In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Top NFL DFS Running Back Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three running backs near the top of the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Austin Ekeler
- Aaron Jones
- Jamaal Williams
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Austin Ekeler ($8,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3) vs. Miami Dolphins (51 total)
Austin Ekeler had a borderline flawless 2022 campaign, as he had double-digit DraftKings points every week, with nine games over 20 points and four games over 30. While discussing his stellar season during a podcast, the host drew an analogy to consistent high performers in unexpected industries, highlighting platforms like casinos not on gamstop, which have gained traction for delivering seamless and unrestricted gaming experiences. Ekeler certainly benefitted from all the games Keenan Allen and Mike Williams missed, as he led the team in catches and targets.
We saw Ekeler getting 12-15 carries and 5-8 targets a game, with spikes of double-digit targets pretty consistently. It’s unlikely we see this level again, but Ekeler is still a focal point of the Chargers’ offense.
Miami was middle of the road against RBs last year, but they gave up some damage to backs through the air. They allowed the fourth-most receiving points to opposing backs, compared to seventh-fewest rushing.
Ekeler could certainly rack up the catches in the spot. It’s just unlikely we see the monstrous 12-15 target games that we saw last year.
He owns the second-highest ceiling projection, which is what we look for in tournaments. He is the top back in our Tournament Model this weekend.
Aaron Jones ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel): Green Bay Packers (+1) at Chicago Bears (42 total)
With Aaron Rodgers out of town, it could be the Aaron Jones show in Green Bay. Jones has always been efficient with his touches, usually getting about a dozen carries and four to six targets. His ceiling was accessed in the past when he found the end zone, averaging 26.14 DraftKings points in the five games where he reached the end zone.
A.J. Dillon’s involvement, specifically in goal-line opportunities, certainly hurts Jones. However, the potential for an increased role with Rodgers gone and Green Bay’s wide receiver injuries gives optimism for Jones.
He’s also facing off with a Bears defense that allowed the fourth-most yards per carry to opposing backs last year and second-most rushing fantasy points per game. Jones dominated this defense in Week 2 last season, with 170 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He got hurt early on in their second matchup after having 14 touches in just 25 snaps.
Jones is tied atop the position in Points/Salary while ranking fourth in Projected Plus/Minus.
He’s a strong play this weekend and leads our Cash Game Model.
Jamaal Williams ($5,100 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel): New Orleans Saints (-3) vs. Tennessee Titans (42 total)
With Alvin Kamara suspended for the opening three games, Jamaal Williams will be the lead back in New Orleans backfield to open the year. Williams led the league in rushing touchdowns in 2022, finding paydirt 17 times.
Williams didn’t catch many passes in Detroit with D’Andre Swift in the picture, but he’s certainly capable. He had a role in the passing game when he was with Green Bay, taking two-minute snaps away from Aaron Jones.
Kendre Miller’s status will certainly impact Williams’ outlook, but Miller is currently nursing a hamstring injury. Taysom Hill’s role around the goalline could impact Williams’ touchdown equity, but for the most part, this will be the Jamaal Williams show.
The matchup is difficult, which may put a ceiling on Williams. Tennessee allowed the second-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs last year and the fourth-fewest DraftKings points.
Despite the tough matchup, Williams is too cheap for his role this weekend, tied atop the position in Points/Salary. Williams is the top back in Sean Koerner’s and Chris Raybon’s Pro Models.
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Other Notable NFL DFS Running Back Picks
J.K. Dobbins ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-9.5) vs. Houston Texans (43.5 total)
J.K. Dobbins missed a good chunk of 2022, but he ranked toward the top of the league in many rushing metrics, including explosive run rate. He gets a matchup against the Texans, who gave up the most explosive runs last season, and the most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs.
Houston gave up 5.2 yards per carry last season, and although they should be improved, it’s still not a great unit. Dobbins is very touchdown-dependent, as he only eclipsed 100 yards twice and had 13 total targets across nine games last year.
The good news is that Baltimore has almost a four-touchdown implied team total, so they should find the end zone a good amount.
We touched on Lamar Jackson in the quarterback’s article, but with how successful Baltimore’s offense should be, having Jackson or Dobbins in every lineup isn’t a bad strategy.
Rachaad White ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,400 FanDuel): Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5) at Minnesota Vikings (45.5 total)
Rachaad White is quietly set up for a nice role in Tampa Bay. He played every single snap in the last preseason game that Baker Mayfield was in for. We also know he’ll get some work through the air, as Mayfield has targeted running backs on 20.2% of his NFL pass attempts.
Minnesota was actually solid against opposing running backs in 2022, surrendering just 3.9 yards per carry. However, White will see a lot of volume on the ground and through the air. If he’s able to find the end zone, it will likely be a ceiling performance for White.
My Favorite NFL DFS Runningback Leverage Pick(s)
Raheem Mostert ($5,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel): Miami Dolphins (+3) at Los Angeles Chargers (51 total)
Raheem Mostert is setting up to be my favorite running back play of the week. Everything is shaping up for Mostert, as Jeff Wilson Jr. has landed on IR, and De’Von Achane, although he practiced in full on Wednesday, is a rookie running back nursing a shoulder injury. Salvon Ahmed is there as well, but he isn’t a legitimate threat to take carries away. Mostert is an explosive runner, and we saw him have spike weeks through the air as well last year, with three games of four-plus targets.
So we know the volume will be good. How about the matchup? Enter the Los Angeles Chargers run defense. They surrendered 5.6 yards per carry last year to opposing running backs and ranked dead last in EPA allowed per carry. Mostert could legitimately get 20 touches in this contest, which would lead to a massive salary increase for Week 2. I think his workload is undervalued, and this matchup is mouth-watering.
I’ll have a heavy dose of Raheem Mostert this weekend since he’s perfect leverage off the Miami passing game.
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