In this piece, I highlight quarterbacks who stand out in our large suite of analytical fantasy tools, most specifically, our FantasyLabs Player Models. While the models are built for DFS contests, this is an all-purpose fantasy article with actionable information for all formats.
As news breaks throughout the week and we adjust our projections (powered by Sean Koerner), player ratings in our Player Models will change as the projections change. For updates, visit the models directly.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Top NFL DFS Quarterback Picks in the FantasyLabs Models
On DraftKings, there are three quarterbacks atop the individual Sean Koerner, Chris Raybon, Cash Game, and Tournament Player Models.
- Patrick Mahomes
- Jalen Hurts
- Daniel Jones
We’ll discuss why these three are popping in our models, as well as take a look at some other quarterbacks.
Top Model NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Patrick Mahomes ($7,700 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel): Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Arizona Cardinals (53.5 total)
The whole NFL world is waiting with bated breath to see how Patrick Mahomes fares without speedster Tyreek Hill on the team. Hill’s departure leaves the Kansas City wide receiver room as somewhat of an unknown. While most may take a “wait-and-see” approach to Mahomes’ fantasy outlook, we’re gladly embracing the uncertainty and endorsing one of the top quarterbacks in the league as he leads our Tournament Model.
Mahomes and the Chiefs travel to Arizona to take on the Arizona Cardinals, and with the total sitting as the highest of the week at 53.5, we’re expecting some fireworks. The Cardinals were the 11th-ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks in 2021. However, a lot of that is buoyed by their impressive performance over the first half of the year. From Week 10 and on, the Cardinals were sixth in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Keeping that same sample size, the Cardinals were 26th in EPA per pass play allowed from Week 10 and on. They also didn’t get after the passer too well, sitting in the middle of the pack at 14th in pressure rate. The Chiefs’ offensive line held up well last year, ranking 12th in pressure rate allowed. Mahomes should have enough time to sit back and find open receivers against this Cardinals defense.
Despite Hill no longer being on the Chiefs, we’re not worried about Kansas City’s weapons as a whole. Travis Kelce is still one of the top tight ends in fantasy, and Mahomes still has a rapport with Mecole Hardman. On top of that, the Chiefs have brought in the cavalry, signing Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling in free agency, all while drafting Skyy Moore in the second round of this year’s draft as well.
Mahomes unsurprisingly leads our Tournament Model on DraftKings, as he boasts one of the highest ceilings on any DFS slate.
There may be merit to looking towards a cheaper option in cash games, but load up on Mahomes in tournaments. At the time of writing, he’s sporting an 82% Leverage Rating in our models.
Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel): Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Detroit Lions (48.5 total)
The Eagles seem to have been one of the more overlooked teams of the offseason. They boast one of the top offensive line units in the league and added star wide receiver A.J. Brown to go along with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert in the passing game. Going into his second year as the full-time starter of this offense, Jalen Hurts may be poised for a breakout season.
The Lions gave up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last year and have already lost cornerback Jerry Jacobs and edge rusher Romeo Okwara to injury. Hurts should be able to exploit Detroit’s defense with his arm, but he should also find success with his legs.
Hurts provides a nice floor with his rushing usage, as he topped 30 rushing yards in all but one game last year and surpassed 55 yards in eight of 16 games. He also showed that the ground game was an avenue toward his ceiling, as he had four multi-touchdown games, with ten total touchdowns on the ground during the year. Detroit was middle of the pack against quarterbacks on the ground, as they gave up the 16th-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks.
Hurts’ usage on the ground, coupled with his dangerous weapons against a middling defense, shows his floor while leaving his potential ceiling sky-high.
Hurts leads two of our models on DraftKings and leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus, making him the best quarterback value on the slate.
Daniel Jones ($5,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel): New York Giants (+5.5) at Tennessee Titans (43.5)
Were you looking for appetizing quarterback DFS picks for this lovely Week 1? Well, you’ve come to the wrong place, my friend. Daniel Jones has had an up-and-down career to this point and is looking to right the ship. After an impressive 2019 where he threw 24 touchdowns, Jones has combined for 21 touchdowns in the last two years while tallying 20 turnovers over this stretch.
If any man can steer Jones in the right direction, it’s Brian Daboll. Accuracy and consistency have been Jones’ downfall to start his career, which is fairly similar to the last quarterback that Daboll worked with in a young Josh Allen. I’m not saying that Jones will have a Josh Allen-like resurgence, but an uptick in performance is definitely in the cards.
The Titans gave up the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season and were only 19th in pressure rate. Tennessee also gave up two-plus touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks in 10/18 games last season, as well as over 290 passing yards in 10/18 games. With their sack leader from last season, Harold Landry III, going on injured reserve this past week, there are certainly some question marks surrounding this Tennessee defense.
Jones was able to flash some upside last season, with three games of 22+ DraftKings points in the first four weeks of the year, with two of them going for 29.46 and 30.78. Jones suffered a concussion in Week 5 against Dallas and never really regained his footing before being shut down for the year after Week 12 due to a neck injury.
It may not be pretty, but Jones should be on your fantasy radar this weekend. He’s flashed some upside in the past, and if there is anyone who can show Jones the light, it’s Brian Daboll.
Jones leads one of our Pro Models this week.
Other Notable NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Justin Herbert ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel): Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (52 total)
Justin Herbert quietly (to me) finished as the overall fantasy QB2 in the 2021 campaign and should only be getting better as he enters his third NFL season. The Chargers aimed to improve their offensive line in the offseason, which will be useful against the Raiders’ fierce pass-rushing duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby. The Raiders’ secondary doesn’t instill the same level of fear that the pass-rush does, as Jonathan Abram struggles in coverage at safety, and new starter Rock Ya-Sin was let go by the Colts without much thought.
Herbert threw for 300+ yards in nine of 17 games this past season and punched in 41 total touchdowns. He’s averaged 311.25 passing yards, and 2.75 total touchdowns per game across his four career starts against the Raiders. Herbert will also be looking for revenge, as the Chargers’ 2021 campaign ended in a heart-breaking Week 18 loss at the hands of Las Vegas.
With one of the highest ceiling projections at the position in a game with a total well over 50, Justin Herbert looks like a solid option this weekend in all formats.
Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel): Baltimore Ravens (-7) at New York Jets (44.5 total)
After an injury-riddled 2021, Lamar Jackson is looking to return to his elite form. Jackson started 2021 hot, with 20+ DraftKings points in each of the team’s first five games, including one of 37.26 and another of 45.88. Jackson boasts one of the highest floors due to his rushing usage. He averaged 11.1 rush attempts per game for 63.9 rushing yards, leading the league in each category at the position.
You’re looking for more reasons to play Lamar? Enter the New York Jets. The Jets allowed the sixth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks this past season and allowed three quarterbacks to top 25 DraftKings points. New York’s defense appears healthy, as Carl Lawson will take his first regular season snaps with the team. This unit could be improved from last year, but it’s hard to expect a massive improvement.
Lamar is squarely in play this weekend as he has the third-best median projection in our models.
Kyler Murray ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel): Arizona Cardinals (+6) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (53.5 total)
Kyler Murray’s 2021 campaign was a tale of two halves. Murray averaged 25.7 DraftKings points per game in Arizona’s first seven games en route to a 7-0 start. For the rest of the season, including the playoffs, Murray averaged 18.2 DraftKings points per game and a 2-6 record in games started by Murray. If 2022 is going to be another tale of two halves, then I sure am happy that it’s the first half.
Murray’s cheapest DraftKings price for 2021 was $7,000, so we’re getting him near that floor. He did struggle without DeAndre Hopkins last season, averaging 16.32 DraftKings points in five games without him. However, Murray’s “stock” is fairly low at the moment, and he’s facing the defense that gave up the second-most fantasy points per game last season in Kansas City.
This game holds the highest total of the week, and Murray shouldn’t see too much ownership. He presently has a 75% Leverage Rating.
Trey Lance ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Chicago Bears (40.5 total)
One of the biggest question marks of the 2022 NFL season is how Trey Lance and the 49ers are going to fare. If you were looking for a bode of confidence, don’t look to Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan was quite transparent about Lance’s struggles in camp. The 49ers could look to a more run-heavy approach, which could lead to fantasy gold for Lance.
In Lance’s two starts of 2021, he carried the ball 24 times, totaling 120 yards on the ground. Lance averaged 17.82 DraftKings points per game in his two starts, which is respectable. If Lance is going to run the ball as much as he did in 2021, he’ll be a productive fantasy player.
With this week’s matchup against Chicago having the lowest over/under of the weekend, His ceiling may not be incredibly high.
However, a quarterback who’s using his legs can access a high ceiling fairly easily.
