NFL Week 1 wraps up with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Giants will take on the Steelers at 7:10 p.m. ET, and the Broncos will take on the Titans at 10:20 p.m. ET.
Let’s look at some of the top DFS options available at each position on today’s slate.
Quarterback
Stud
Ben Roethlisberger is the highest-priced option tonight on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and it’s pretty easy to see why. He averaged over 320 passing yards per game in 2018 — he played just two games last season — and the Giants’ defense was one of the worst in the league at stopping big passing games in 2019. It ranked merely 30th Football Outsiders‘ in pass defense DVOA, and Roethlisberger leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.80 on today’s slate.
The Giants don’t figure to be much improved in that department this year, either. Their big free-agent acquisition was James Bradberry, but he graded out as just the 53rd-best cover corner in 2019, per Pro Football Focus. Their other projected starting corner was last year’s first-round pick, Deandre Baker, but he was released after getting arrested for armed robbery.
The one real X-factor to consider with Big Ben is his drastic home/road splits throughout his career. Roethlisberger has historically posted a Plus/Minus of +5.00 when playing at home, but that mark drops all the way to -1.62 when playing on the road (per the Trends tool).
Value
Ryan Tannehill came out of nowhere to post one of the most impressive quarterback seasons in 2019. He led all passers with an adjusted yards per attempt of 10.18, and he led all QBs in terms of passer rating as well. That translated to solid fantasy success as well; he posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.03 in 13 starts as a member of the Titans.
It’s never fun to play in Mile High stadium, but Tannehill did catch a break with the injury of Von Miller. That’s a massive blow for a Broncos’ defense that finished 14th in pass defense DVOA last season.
Quick Hits
Drew Lock impressed as a rookie, posting a 4-1 record as a starting QB, and he gets to face a Titans’ secondary that finished 22nd in pass defense DVOA last season. That said, Lock could be without two of his top pass-catching options in Courtland Sutton and K.J. Hamler.
Daniel Jones has a brutal matchup against the Steelers, who were arguably the best pass defense in football last season after acquiring Minkah Fitzpatrick. Still, Jones is always a threat to do some damage with his legs, and he had four games with at least 32.18 DraftKings points in 2019. That gives him a solid ceiling, and he’ll likely be the lowest-owned option at the QB position.
Running Back
Stud
James Conner isn’t the priciest running back on the slate, but he stands out as the top target. The Steelers are the largest favorites on the slate at six points, and the point spread has historically been a good indicator of fantasy success. RBs that are favored by a comparable amount have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.03 on FanDuel.
Conner also figures to be heavily involved in this matchup. Head coach Mike Tomlin recently dubbed him their “bell cow,” meaning he should be on the field for large stretches. That includes third-down and goal-line situations, which are historically the most valuable touches for RBs.
Conner leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.20 on FanDuel, and he also stands out as one of the best pure values given his Bargain Rating of 95%.
Value
There aren’t a ton of value RBs to consider on this slate. The Giants, Titans, and Steelers all figure to heavily utilize just one RB, which leaves the Broncos as the lone possible exception.
They brought in Melvin Gordon during the offseason, which leaves Philip Lindsay’s role in question. That said, it seems unlikely that Lindsay disappears completely after logging at least 1207 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. Gordon will probably get the majority of the backfield touches, but it could be something like a 60/40 split.
The Titans are a tough matchup for RBs — the Broncos’ runners own an Opponent Plus/Minus of -2.2 on FanDuel — but no one outside of Conner really has a good matchup today. I’m definitely willing to roll the dice on Lindsay on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 97%.
Quick Hits
You can’t really go wrong with either Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry. Neither player is in a great spot, but both guys are dominant fantasy RBs. Henry is a more traditional back, leading the league in rushing yards and rushing TDs in 2019, while Saquon is a more modern RB who can contribute in the passing game. I would give the slight edge to Barkley for that reason, particularly on DraftKings given the PPR scoring.
Gordon is easily the best pure value at the position on DraftKings, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. That makes him just $200 more expensive than Lindsay, and I will gladly spend the extra $200. Even if he doesn’t dominate the touches between the 20s, expect him to handle the majority of work around the goal line.
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Wide Receiver
Stud
This sets up as an absolutely elite spot for JuJu Smith-Schuster. He disappointed a bit in 2019, but it’s hard to blame him for the struggles. The Steelers used Mason Rudolph or Duck Hodges in 14-of-16 games last season, and both guys were dreadful. Rudolph ranked dead-last among qualified QBs in terms of adjusted yards per attempt (5.7), and Hodges would’ve been the worst at the position if he saw enough pass attempts to qualify (5.0).
Things should be much better for Smith-Schuster now that Roethlisberger is back in the lineup. He’s averaged 16.47 DraftKings points per game in 32 career games with Roethlisberger in the lineup compared to just 11.66 in 11 games without him. Add in the fact that most of his 32 games with Roethlisberger have also come with Antonio Brown in the lineup, and Smith-Schuster looks poised for a huge season if Big Ben stays healthy.
The Giants are also an elite matchup. They were absolutely putrid against No. 1 receivers last season, ranking dead last in DVOA vs. the position.
Value
It’s tough to trust a rookie WR — particularly given the limited offseason in 2020 — but Jerry Jeudy could be forced into a monster role for the Broncos. Sutton is a game-time decision after injuring his shoulder in practice earlier this week, and No. 3 WR Hamler is also questionable. If both players are unable to suit up, it would leave the Broncos without two of their top pass-catching options.
Jeudy also doesn’t figure to be a traditional rookie. He enters the league with a big pedigree after being drafted in the first round out of Alabama. He isn’t a physical freak like most first-round WRs — his adjusted SPARQ score put him in just the 38th percentile during the pre-draft process — but he makes up for it with some of the best route running at the position. Jeudy averaged at least 86 receiving yards per game in his final two collegiate seasons despite playing at just 19 and 20 years old against SEC competition.
He has a nice matchup today against the Titans, who were pedestrian against the pass in 2019. They finished just 29th in DVOA against No. 1 WRs and also struggled against slot WRs. That said, they were excellent vs. No. 2 WRs, so Sutton’s injury status will be important.
Quick Hits
Three of the top five WRs in terms of projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings play for the Titans: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, and Adam Humphries. Brown is the most obvious target in the group after bursting on to the scene as a rookie in 2019, but Davis and Humphries make for sneaky GPP plays. Davis is listed as questionable but is expected to play after practicing in full on Friday and Saturday.
If you’re looking to pivot off Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson and James Washington are nice ways to still get some exposure to the Steelers’ passing game. Johnson figures to work the short-to-intermediate part of the field, and his $4,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. Washington is more of the big-play threat, and two of his three TDs last season went for at least 30 yards.
The Giants WR corps is crowded. It’s unclear where Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, and Darius Slayton will fall in the pecking order, but that uncertainty could make them under-owned in Week 1. All three stand out as excellent values on FanDuel: Tate owns a Bargain Rating of 94%, Shepard owns a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Slayton owns a Bargain Rating of 63%. Tate is currently questionable with a hamstring injury, and his absence would give bumps to Shepard and Slayton in this matchup.
Tight End
Stud
Evan Engram is another player who factors into the Giants’ crowded pass-catching group. He’s the most expensive option at the position on today’s slate, and he averaged a career-best 5.5 catches and 58.4 yards per game in 2019. The only thing that has really limited him is his health — he’s missed 13 games over the past two seasons — but he appears to be healthy at the moment.
That said, I’m not particularly interested in him in this matchup against the Steelers. They ranked third in DVOA vs. the TE position in 2019, and he figures to see plenty of Devin Bush in this matchup. Bush was one of the better linebackers in terms of coverage last season, which is not surprising since he lined up all over the field in college. He’s also a freak athlete, so he only figures to get better with more snaps under his belt.
Overall, Engram owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.6, which is the worst mark at the position on today’s slate.
Value
Noah Fant is another member of the Broncos who would potentially benefit from the absence of Sutton and/or Hamler. He was a first-round pick in 2019, and he had some promising moments as a rookie. His final stat line wasn’t overly impressive — he finished with 40 catches, 562 yards, and three TDs — but TE is a notoriously tough position for rookies.
He should see some improvement in his second season, and he was a popular sleeper pick at TE in fantasy drafts during the offseason. He owns the highest ceiling projection at the position in our NFL Models.
Quick Hits
The Steelers have a pair of viable TEs in Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald. McDonald is significantly cheaper, particularly on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 79%, and he’s historically averaged 8.74 DraftKings points per game with Roethlisberger at QB. Ebron figures to be the starter at the position and has displayed excellent receiving ability in the past, and the Steelers’ beat writers were thoroughly impressed with him during training camp.
Jonnu Smith might be the top TE option on the slate. He no longer has to compete for snaps with Delanie Walker, and he’s another freak athlete at the position. He emerged with Tannehill under center last season, increasing his fantasy production by +2.75 DraftKings points per game.
