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Each week, our Data Dive articles highlight notable players for the NFL DFS slate. For those interested in the afternoon slate, here’s a weekly breakdown focused solely on these games.
Week 1 doesn’t offer a ton of variety, with just three games to choose from, but they’re some of the most exciting ones of the week.
| Team | Implied Live Score | Spread | Game Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 24 | 3 | 51 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 27 | -3 | 51 |
| Miami Dolphins | 17 | 10 | 44 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 27 | -10 | 44 |
| New York Giants | 22.5 | 1 | 49 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 23.5 | -1 | 49 |
*Note: Live scores and spreads are subject to change. Be sure to follow our Vegas page for the latest information.*
DraftKings has some great Week 1 GPPs to enter, led by the $250,000 Afternoon Special. Handing out $50,000 to first place on just a $3 entry fee, this tournament pays out the top 23.6 percent of players. With a $27 entry fee, the $75,000 Gridiron also has a nice payout structure, as the top 25.2 percent of players receive prizes and $5,000 goes to first place.
FanDuel offers a $250,000 Sunday NFL Snap for just $2. Sporting a $20,000 top prize, the contest will at least double the money of 19.5 percent of the field. With a $25 entry fee, the $75,000 Sunday NFL Bomb offers $7,500 to first pace while paying out 19.4 percent of the field.
Now let’s dive into the slate.
Quarterback
Projected Ceiling (pts): 32.5 (FD), Russell Wilson
Currently tied with Andrew Luck for the highest projected ceiling (per our Player Models), Wilson is $200 cheaper on FanDuel. If we’re trying to take down one of the tournaments listed above, we’re going to want to target players with high ceilings and Wilson fits the bill. With the Seahawks favored by 10 points at home, Wilson should have little trouble accumulating points in this matchup. Per Rotoworld’s Rich Hribar, Wilson led the NFL last year with 0.584 fantasy points per attempt. He gets a great matchup against a Dolphins team that Football Outsiders ranked 29th against the pass in 2015.
Projected Plus/Minus: 6.1 (DK), Dak Prescott
Prescott’s $5,000 minimum salary on both DraftKings and FanDuel is enough of a reason to roster him in cash games, but he also has other factors in his favor. Prescott leads all quarterbacks (regardless of slate) in Projected Plus/Minus on DK and FD. He has an outstanding matchup against the Giants, who allowed opposing quarterbacks a +5.6 DK Plus/Minus last year. Almost anyway you slice it, the Giants were bottom-five in most statistical categories against opposing quarterbacks. Prescott’s ownership will be through the roof, projected at 17-20 percent on DraftKings, but he’s rosterable, maybe even in tournaments if you stack him with a contrarian player.
Running Back
Market Share Snaps (%): 62.5, Frank Gore
Playing in what is projected to be one of this week’s highest-scoring games, Gore dominated snaps last season in Indianapolis and should continue to do so this season with only Robert Turbin added to the depth chart this offseason. Gore ranked fifth among all running backs last year in snap percentage. In 2014, the Colts ranked top-three in plays per game with a healthy Andrew Luck under center. Gore should see a ton of volume and opportunity this year, beginning with a fast-paced game at home.
Projected Floor (pts): 10.9 (FD), Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke’s 10.9-point floor projection on FanDuel has him as this slate’s safest running back. Also owning the highest projection and ceiling projection, Zeke looks to be the chalk play at running back, as we’re projecting him with the highest ownership of the slate. His 98 percent Bargain Rating on FD also leads the slate.
Wide Receivers
Projected Ceiling (pts): 22.3 (FD), Odell Beckham
If you’re aiming to take down one of this week’s GPPs, Beckham should be an anchor in your lineups. His 22.3-point projected ceiling on FanDuel ranks highest among all receivers and for good reason. Beckham’s matchup against the Dallas cornerbacks shouldn’t cause any concern, as Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne last year ranked 74th and 103rd among all cornerbacks. Beckham was held in check by Dallas last year, but he averaged over 25 points per game against them as a rookie.
Bargain Rating (%): 91 (DK), Terrance Williams
Possessing a 91 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings, Williams could be a sneaky player to target. No receiver has more than Williams’ 7 Pro Trends, and the Giants corners allowed a +2.7 Plus/Minus to opposing receivers last year. One of Williams’ highest-rated Pro Trends is his top-20 percent ranking in points per dollar, which (per our Trends tools) historically has added +3.11 Plus/Minus to a receiver’s output.
Tight Ends
Bales Model Rating (%): 80.39 (DK), Dwayne Allen
The highest-rated tight end in both the Bales and CSURAM88 Player Models on DraftKings, Allen could be a sneaky flex play in tournaments, as his rating is also than that of any running back or wide receiver. With a terrific matchup against the Lions, Allen goes against a team that was bottom-five in Plus/Minus allowed to the position and one that gave up a league-leading 12 touchdowns to tight ends last year. The Lions were also 29th against the position in DVOA and struggled to defend the middle of the field.
Receiving Touchdown Market Share (%): 18.8, Jason Witten
Leading all tight ends on the slate in Rec TD market share, Witten also has the highest projection this week on DraftKings at 10.8 points. Witten has demolished the Giants over the last three years, averaging 17.3 points per game. He’s scored seven touchdowns in those six games. Even with Dak under center, Witten should have little problem seeing his typical volume and could develop into a consistent checkdown option for the rookie.
