After an exciting finish at Pebble Beach, we head to Scottsdale, Arizona, for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The raucous crowd at the famous 16th hole followed by a memorable finishing stretch of holes has turned into a Super Bowl Sunday staple leading up to the big game.
The 2022 edition of the tournament will provide plenty of intrigue and an excellent field of 132, including Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Viktor Hovland, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, and Webb Simpson.
TPC Scottsdale is a par 71 measuring 7,261 yards and features Bermudagrass greens (although they are much more of a blend rather than pure Bermudagrass).
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Don’t forget about the other tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, such as the Trends tool and PGA Correlation Dashboard.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Approach will once again be very important this week. In 2020, Webb Simpson ranked first in the field in the category en route to a playoff victory over Tony Finau. Last year, Brooks Koepka was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, trailing only Jordan Spieth, who finished 4th. The greens are relatively flat, and pins should be accessible.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas – $11,000 (7th SG:APP)
- Mid-range target: Daniel Berger – $9,200 (1st SG: APP)
- Value target: Pat Perez – $7,100 (19th SG: APP)
Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
TPC Scottsdale is not an overly long golf course. Distance off the tee is not absolutely essential, but it is a definite asset. A good combination of distance and accuracy should be the recipe this week, with distance still being a bit more important.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm – $11,600 (1st SG: OTT)
- Mid-range target: Corey Conners – $8,300 (5th SG: OTT)
- Value target: Emiliano Grillo – $6,700 (13th SG: OTT)
Strokes Gained: Putting (Firm and Fast)
Greens tend to get really firm and fast in the Arizona desert. Statistically, the greens at TPC Scottsdale have qualified as “firm” and “fast” in every round but two since 2015.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm – $11,600 (11th Strokes Gained: Putting Firm and Fast)
- Mid-range target: Daniel Berger – $9,200 (5th Strokes Gained: Putting Firm and Fast)
- Value target: Denny McCarthy – $7,200 (2nd Strokes Gained: Putting Firm and Fast)
Greens in Regulation Gained
Statistics from previous years at TPC Scottsdale show that Greens in Regulation Gained at the course is much more indicative of the winner at this tournament than the TOUR average. With many bunkers and firm dry areas around the greens, missing the putting surface can be consequential.
- High-end target: Jon Rahm – $11,600 (5th GIR Gained)
- Mid-range target: Corey Conners – $8,300 (7th GIR Gained)
- Value target: Martin Laird – $6,800 (9th GIR Gained)
Opportunities Gained
I am looking for golfers who will get a lot of birdie looks this week. With the winner in the high teens under par on average, birdies will be a requirement.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas – $11,000 (4th Opportunities Gained)
- Mid-range target: Russell Henley – $8,200 (3rd Opportunities Gained)
- Value target: Emiliano Grillo – $6,700 (9th Opportunities Gained)
