This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze five key NHL players in the day’s slate. The series does not provide play or fade recommendations. It provides analysis.
Today we have a nine-game slate that starts at 7:00 pm ET.
All data pulled from HockeyViz.com, Corsica.Hockey, or NaturalStatTrick.com unless otherwise specified.
Brent Burns ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,300 FanDuel)
Brent Burns continues to be the best player in daily fantasy, yet both DraftKings and FanDuel have him severely underpriced. Burns hasn’t put up the same monstrous offensive totals as he did last year (on pace for ‘only’ 13 goals and 52 assists after a 29-goal, 47-assist campaign last season), but when you look at his shot numbers they are almost identical. Even if you argue that last year’s nine percent shooting rate was an outlier (given how far away he shoots the puck on average), this season’s 3.5 percent mark is almost certain to rise slightly. Burns does everything else incredibly well for daily fantasy scoring and is second on this slate to Sidney Crosby in assists per game over the past month. When the true studs at center and winger are almost a full thousand dollars more than Burns, it makes for an easy decision when it comes to who the first priority should be for tonight’s lineups. It is no surprise that at his price on both sites Burns grades out as one of the top plays in our Models. With an uptempo Penguins team in town, expect Burns to be the most popular option on the board tonight. To stack alongside Burns, sprinkle in Logan Couture and Tomas Hertl, who man the second line and play with Burns on the first power play unit.
Vladimir Tarasenko ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Vladimir Tarasenko has been unbelievable this season, overtaking Alex Ovechkin for the league leader in iCorsi/60, or how many shot attempts an individual uses while he is on the ice. We will never see any individual break Gretzky’s official records, but to see Tarasenko do this to Ovechkin may be the closest we see to such utter dominance being overtaken. Ovechkin has led the league in this category as far back as NaturalStatTrick.com goes back, which is over a decade now, to 2007-08, and most years it hasn’t been particularly close between him and second place. Tarasenko, in all fairness, has been second fiddle for the better part of the last five years, but it is still noteworthy and impressive nonetheless. Fun fact that may interest only me: The difference between Ovi and Tarasenko two years ago (Nos. 1 and 2) was equal to the distance between Tarasenko and guys like Jason Zucker and Justin Faulk. There are shooters, and then there are shooters, so while Tarasenko has been knocking on the door of the latter category, this season he blew the door off its hinges and firmly resides alongside Ovechkin as the top DFS forward. At home, Tarasenko is facing Arizona as the biggest favorite on the night. Patrick Kane is a viable alternative going against an off-the-rails Islanders defense, and in years past his talents may have tipped the scales, but with Tarasenko’s legendary shot rate and usage similar to Kane’s, Tarasenko has the slight edge.
Darnell Nurse ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
The Oilers are coming out of their bye week tonight, and with their overall struggles and the recent injury to Ryan Nugent-Hopkins some changes were necessary to their lines and power play units. There is no greater benefactor to these changes than Darnell Nurse, who gets a crack at first power play time alongside Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Nurse this season has established himself as a fantasy-relevant player in addition to a top-four defenseman for the Oilers, averaging 21 minutes, five shots+blocks and three DraftKings points per game on the season, all without power play time. Nurse is a talented player: With his established DFS production, newfound usage, and solid matchup (at home against Vancouver) Nurse warrants must-play consideration in all formats.
Derick Brassard ($4,600 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel)
Center is tricky on this slate, as the strong values on DraftKings aren’t necessarily so on FanDuel, and vice versa. So on DraftKings, I am looking hard at Ottawa’s top two centers, Derick Brassard and Matt Duchene, for strong values against a Toronto team that gives up a lot of chances. Ottawa and Toronto just played a 4-3 game before their respective byes, and the underlying numbers actually had each team underperforming their expected results, so I am a fan of the pace and values here, especially on the Ottawa side. Meanwhile, on FanDuel, these two centers are priced in the mid-$5,000 range, while just a hair above them are Brayden Point and Paul Stastny, each of whom I see as top FanDuel values with their first power play time for very strong teams.
Craig Smith ($5,900 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel)
Craig Smith has stepped up in a big way for a Nashville team that has been starved of scoring as of late, leading all wingers on this slate in shots+blocks over the past month (a handy measurement found on our Models page, and explained a bit more in-depth in an outstanding article by Joe Holka). His DraftKings price leaves a bit to be desired, but against a Florida team playing its second game in as many nights, he offers incredible value at $4,600 on FanDuel. It is worth noting that Viktor Arvidsson will return to the lineup tonight, so Smith will skate alongside Kyle Turris and Pontus Aberg, and Smith should hold onto his first power play time.
Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide updates regarding projected lines and starting goaltenders. Stay ahead of your competition with our Team Lines page.
Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports
