On Monday I wrote Part 1 of my Vegas Bargain Ratings (VBR) piece, and this article is intended to be a follow-up. I’ve been tracking Vegas line movement for each player since last week and have four data points: Last Thursday, and then Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week. I’ll post those numbers first, and then I’ll also repost the VBR table since line movement certainly affects those ratings.
Vegas Line Movement for the U.S. Open
The first thing you might notice is that Phil Mickelson did not initially have posted odds, as it was reported that he would withdraw from the U.S. Open because of his daughter’s graduation. He is still unlikely to play, but he will at least try to make it, and many sportsbooks have since released odds for him. His addition back into the field lowers the odds of the rest of the field considering his alternate would have much lower probability of winning. So while the negative movement from last week to Monday seems drastic especially for the top guys, there will likely be another re-correction once Phil officially withdraws.
I posted two differential columns above; one is just the difference between a player’s odds as of today minus their odds last week, and the other is the percentage difference. Because the top high-priced studs all have high odds to begin with, any movement (positive or negative) will look larger than the lower-priced guys. Looking at the percentage difference can place movement for all players on a similar scale.
The players who have the most notable positive line movement so far are below:
- Adam Scott: +0.2 percent odds, 6.25% increase
- Paul Casey: +0.2 percent odds, 10.00% increase
- Jason Dufner: +0.3 percent odds, 20.00% increase
- Kevin Chappell: +0.3 percent odds, 25.00% increase
- Kevin Kisner: +0.4 percent odds, 25.00% increase
- Rafa Cabrera-Bello: +0.3 percent odds, 42.86% increase
- Francesco Molinari: +0.3 percent odds, 25.00% increase
A couple of these players — Scott and Molinari specifically — are already projected to be highly-owned, and it’s likely that positive line movement pushes those marks to even higher levels. I said in the PGA Breakdown that Scott is so underpriced at $8,800 on DraftKings that he’s almost a must-play in cash games and an auto-fade in GPPs. Molinari may not be that highly-owned, but I do expect him to have a top-10 mark this weekend.
Updated VBRs
Let’s see how the movement affects VBRs for this week.
Dustin Johnson still absolutely dominates the field, and I wrote why the VBR numbers are so extreme in Monday’s piece. The more interesting changes are with guys in the $6k and $7k range like Molinari, Kisner, and Billy Horschel. Those guys, and especially Molinari, are quite underpriced, and it’s not a surprise that their odds have increased throughout the week. And since DraftKings prices players so heavily according to their Vegas odds . . .
. . . it makes sense that guys with line movement would become better values. Here’s the new r-squared value; it decreased a little, which hints that there are even more pricing inefficiencies now.
Anyway, look through the data tonight; I hope it helps you find value guys to roster. We will discuss line movement and more in tonight’s FREE PGA live show at 8pm ET. Join us then!
