Writing Different Versions of the Same Introduction Gets Tiring
I have been studying Vegas implied odds in daily fantasy golf for a couple of weeks now. What I’ve found is that, because of the correlation between DraftKings salaries and Vegas implied odds to win a tournament, using an extreme stars-and-scrubs lineup approach is optimal for PGA Tour DFS contests.
The correlation between Vegas odds and DK salaries is very strong, because of which we can predict what a player’s salary should be based solely on Vegas odds. Measuring the difference between that number and a player’s actual salary, we can find inefficiencies in pricing and create essentially a “Vegas Bargain Rating” (VBR), which can show us the discount or premium available on any given golfer’s Upside.
Upside and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Since DraftKings is now offering Euro Tour DFS Golf, I want to look at VBRs for these contests and see how they match up with those for PGA Tour DFS Golf. As you can see in the table below, Euro and PGA DFS are similar in the way Vegas odds correlate with pricing:
The biggest difference between this data and the PGA data for this week’s St. Jude Classic is that here there are three golfers with incredibly high VBRs (Bernd Wiesberger, Joost Luiten, and Chris Wood), whereas the St. Jude Classic had only one: Dustin Johnson, who led all golfers with a 100 VBR. Additionally, the St. Jude Classic has only two golfers with VBDs of at least 30, whereas nearly half the field hits that mark at the Lyoness Open.
What Does This Mean for Lineup Construction?
Unfortunately, the trio of golfers listed above are just expensive enough that you can’t roster all three together with three minimum-priced guys. Their combined salary of $35,000 puts you at $5,000 per golfer for your remaining three spots, just below the $5,300 minimum. If you want to go extreme stars-and-scrubs, you’ll have to take two of them and build from there.
Your options are as follows:
- Fill three of the remaining spots with near-minimum guys, allowing you to take another elite golfer in the $10,000-ish.
- Fill the four remaining spots with guys priced around $6,700.
It’s easy to apply basic daily fantasy golf tournament strategies from the PGA Tour directly to Euro Tour DFS Golf. And that might be exactly the correct move. However, let’s explore alternative options a bit as we learn the nuances of Euro DFS golf. Assuming that they’re identical in terms of game theory and strategy is a dangerous move, even if that assumption is correct.
Good luck this week for the 2016 Lyoness Open.
