Valspar Championship: Top PGA DFS Picks, Values, and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings

The 2025 Florida Swing has already given us some great moments with Rory McIlroy, Russell Henley, and Joe Highsmith, each claiming wins in the Sunshine State. The final stop in Florida for the PGA TOUR this season is at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort for this week’s Valspar Championship. This week’s course is another difficult layout featuring plenty of water hazards and tight doglegs with narrow fairways that demand accuracy with every club in the bag.

The Valspar is another full-field event featuring a typical cut, so there are plenty of good options to choose from as you get your roster together. For more info on the field, the course, the weather, and some key stats, check out this First Look from RotoGrinders.

The focus of this post is strong GPP options who have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding high-leverage plays is critical for GPP success, so the picks here go against the grain, looking for under-owned options.

All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.

Usually, I rely heavily on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean toward players who excel in Strokes Gained: Approach, which is more sustainable week-to-week than a hot putter.

Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk in exchange for getting a higher ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that often lead to large-field success. To find guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.

No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.

High-Priced PGA DFS Picks

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Unless otherwise noted, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced in this article come via the Rabbit Hole.

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Justin Thomas $10,800

Even though JT is the most expensive golfer and has the highest ownership projection, he also is a great source of leverage. He has the highest Perfect% by a wide margin and the second-highest SimLeverage as a result. Even though his ownership projection is high, the numbers indicate he’s worth paying up for, especially with so many options to differentiate your lineup lower in the salary structure.

Thomas has the top median and ceiling projections on the board and the second-shortest odds to win and to finish in the top 10. He is still searching for his first win since the 2022 PGA Championship but has been in great form lately and has an excellent course history at Copperhead.

He has made the cut in seven straight events to start 2025 after making 10 of his last 11 cuts in 2024. Over the last 30 rounds dating back to last season, he ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and second in Strokes Gained: Approach. His iron play has been dialed in this season, resulting in three top-10 finishes. Last week, he started with a 78 but then bounced back with an astounding 62 to make the cut and finish T33 at THE PLAYERS Championship.

In his seven previous appearances at the Valspar Championship, Thomas has made six cuts and finished in the top 25 five times, including three top-10 finishes. He finished T3 in 2022 and T10 in 2023 before tailing off to T64 last year. With such good form coming into this year, we could finally get JT’s return to the winner’s circle, which seems extremely overdue after so many near misses.

Alex Smalley $9,000

Smalley has the highest Perfect% of all the golfers under $10,000 and the second-highest SimLeverage of the golfers between $9,000 and $10,000.

Smalley played in the group with eventual champion Rory McIlroy at THE PLAYERS last week, memorably hitting a shot on No. 17 that bounced along the bulkhead along the edge of the island before falling into the water. Despite his difficulty on that hole, he still finished T14. That finish gave him six top-25 finishes in his seven events this season, including each of his last four dating back to the WM Phoenix Open.

Over his last 24 rounds, he leads the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and second in Total Strokes Gained. His short game has also been excellent, and his form is so strong that I think he’ll be able to overcome his inconsistent course history at Copperhead. He made the cut and finished T27 in 2023 but missed the cut in 2022 and 2024.

He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 11 of his last 13 events, and he’s a strong leverage play in the $8,500 to $10,000 range this week.

Now available: our PGA DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks

All Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.

Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.

Editor’s note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.