The PGA TOUR will stay in Florida this week for the 2022 Valspar Championship. Last week, rain and thunderstorms prevented the PLAYERS Championship from being completed on time, so it will be important to monitor how that will impact the Valspar in the coming days.
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook is a par 71 measuring 7,340 yards and features bermuda-grass greens. Infamous for its difficulty, the track will be a tough test for golfers as trouble lurks all over the place. Holes 15, 16, and 17 — also known as the “snake pit” — makes up one of the toughest three-hole stretches in golf and should lead to a captivating finish on Sunday.
The field is comprised of 156 golfers teeing it up. Some notable players in the mix are Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tyrrell Hatton.
For GPP contests on DraftKings, I will be breaking down the key stats (past 24 rounds) and selecting golfers from different price tiers to provide flexibility for a DFS lineup.
For large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Also, our new Perfect% metric is a great data point to use with your roster construction.
If you missed it, we added two new metrics in our models — Perfect% and SimLeverage. You can find an explainer on those metrics here.
The cliff notes version is that you can use SimLeverage to quickly find leverage plays in tournaments, while Perfect% is great for finding the best price-considered plays for cash games.
This analysis may reference Strokes Gained, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models.
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Approach grades out as the most important statistic once again this week. Copperhead really can’t be overpowered and is a second-shot golf course. Historically, great iron players have done really well here, as evidenced by Paul Casey’s back-to-back wins in 2018 and 2019.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland — $10,800 (2nd SG: Approach)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox— $8,100 (1st SG: Approach)
- Value target: Martin Laird — $7,200 (11th SG: Approach)
Good Drives Gained
The long hitters are a bit limited here due to the tree-lined fairways and penal rough. Playing from the fairways will be important, but laying back too far will cause some difficult approaches with firm greens that may not hold shots from long irons.
Golfers who have a good balance of distance and accuracy have the best chance this week.
- High-end target: Viktor Hovland— $10,800 (11th Good Drives Gained)
- Mid-range target: Russell Knox— $8,100 (2nd Good Drives Gained)
- Value target: Martin Laird — $7,200 (1st Good Drives Gained)
Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking
Adding ball-striking puts even more of a premium on tee-to-green prowess in the statistical model this week. Golfers who rank highly in ball-striking are in total control of the golf ball, which is exceedingly important at Copperhead.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas — $11,000 (3rd SG: Ball Striking)
- Mid-range target: Bubba Watson — $8,800 (5th SG: Ball Striking)
- Value target: Aaron Wise — $7,300 (14th SG: Ball Striking)
Bogey Avoidance
TPC Sawgrass may be Pete Dye’s most famous design and for good reason. The course features Dye’s typical shaved run-off areas and tricky green complexes. Pete Dye specialists love TPC Sawgrass and should have a major advantage this week.
- High-end target: Matt Fitzpatrick — $9,000 (11th Bogey Avoidance)
- Mid-range target: Gary Woodland — $8,500 (5th Bogey Avoidance)
- Value target: Nick Taylor — $7,300 (3rd Bogey Avoidance)
Greens in Regulation Gained
I am adding GIR: Gained to the model to further include golfers who can control the golf ball. Consistently hitting fairways and greens will provide golfers with the best chance of winning this week.
- High-end target: Justin Thomas— $9,200 (8th Greens in Regulation Gained)
- Mid-range target: Bubba Watson— $8,800 (4th Greens in Regulation Gained)
- Value target: Matthias Schwab — $6,700 (14th Greens in Regulation Gained)
