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Preview
(Written the Friday before kickoff)
People love to overreact to small samples in general, but I think this is especially true in NFL DFS (and especially, especially true in early-season NFL DFS). With only one game per week, 16 games per regular season, we tend to scrutinize single performances in NFL DFS more so than in other sports. And that brings us to Week 2. Already, recently promising players have a disappointing stench they will have to shake off while others have already cemented their status within the circle of trust based on the results of one game.
As always, the truth lies somewhere in the middle, and this week’s trend will seek to exploit that. I’ll be using the Salary Change and Bargain Rating filters to look for players who are mispriced on FanDuel. In using the Salary Change filter, I’ll be looking for players whose prices were dropped significantly after Week 1. By combining that with Bargain Rating, I’ll hope to identify players who are significantly cheaper on FD than on DraftKings. The cohort should consist of truly discounted options.
Quarterback
Here’s this week’s QB trend:
Interestingly, when the Salary Change filter is removed, the Plus/Minus drops to -0.95, meaning that the top quartile of Bargain Rating alone has not generated value at the quarterback position. But when that player’s price has also fallen sharply over the past month, we gain more than 1.50 points in Plus/Minus.
The lone match is Aaron Rodgers, who qualifies by the skin of his teeth. His price has fallen exactly $300 and his Bargain Rating is exactly 75 percent. Based on Opponent Plus/Minus, Rodgers has a bottom-10 matchup against Minnesota this week and is expected to perform slightly below his salary-based expectations. But based on the discounted price tag and his low FantasyLabs projected ownership (available in our Player Models), this may be a decent spot to take a shot on Rodgers in large guaranteed prize pools.
Running Back
This week’s RB trend:
At RB, the Plus/Minus is more encouraging, although it looks like there is a Consistency hit at first glance. However, the baseline Consistency for an FD running back who is projected to score more than one fantasy point in a game is just 40.2 percent. In other words, players in this cohort offer more Consistency at an inconsistent position.
As you can see from the matches this week, the results are almost exactly what I’m looking for. The below players (for the most part) had poor performances in Week 1 and are now available on FD at a discount:
Wide Receiver
This week’s WR trend:
Baseline Consistency for a wide receiver projected to score more than one FD point in a game is also right around 40 percent, so quite a bit of value is added when looking for discounted wide receivers. One thing to note here is that, for the first time, average ownership is greater within the cohort than the overall average at the position. We’re dealing with pretty small samples, but the general trend indicates that we’re more willing to take a chance on a discounted receiver — relative to his own ‘normal’ price — than a discounted passer or runner.
The matches at this position are especially interesting for Week 2:
• Allen Robinson’s price dropped $300 on FD from Week 1 to Week 2 and his Bargain Rating sits at 94 percent. That’s something you don’t typically see immediately following a 15-target game.
• Dez Bryant’s Week 1 performance with Dak Prescott at quarterback is well documented. He is extremely discounted on FD in Week 2, with a perfect 100 percent Bargain Rating.
Results
(written Sunday night)
Quarterback
Rodgers missed his implied total by one FD point, and he avoided a brutal fantasy day thanks to his rushing production. Rodgers’ number of passing attempts per game in 2016 is consistent with his career average, but the next time he exceeds 220 passing yards in 2016 will be the first. Despite the discounted price, most players did not consider Rodgers this week.
Sometimes a player’s salary drops for a superficial reason. Other times the reasons behind the decrease are very legitimate. Exhibits A and B to that argument are Devonta Freeman and Thomas Rawls.
• Rawls has been a clear injury risk over the first two weeks. He ended up leaving Sunday’s game early.
• Freeman didn’t just underperform in Week 1. He had a different role. A workhorse over the majority of the 2015 season, Freeman has found himself in a timeshare with Tevin Coleman to start 2016. Still, if he had gotten into the end zone in Week 2, we would have looked at this as a great performance.
• Frank Gore exceeded value at nonexistent ownership despite the difficult matchup. Since he is a rather unexciting fantasy play, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him match for this trend several more times this season.
• It’s bizarre seeing a healthy Todd Gurley’s ownership at 0.7 percent regardless of the circumstances. Obviously, it didn’t work out here, but that’s a play I wouldn’t mind making again in large tournaments.
Not getting into the end zone cost Dez a huge day, but I bet that Antonio Brown and A.J. Green owners would have taken Dez’s numbers here. Concerns about Bryant after his one-catch (and almost-touchdown) Week 1 performance were probably overstated. It’s possible that we won’t see him this cheap again for the rest of the year
Robinson posted his second disappointing finish in a row, although he did have a tough matchup with cornerback Jason Verrett. With no real concerns about his role in the offense, A-Rob is essentially the poster boy for this trend right now.
Review
Almost every match this week was low-owned and there were a couple of bright spots. Anytime you can roster a player with no workload concerns at a discount, it’s usually going to be worth considering. The key is identifying why a player is on sale and asking yourself what impact that reason will have on his future performance.
