Using FantasyLabs Free DFS Trends Tool

For a limited time, our powerful DFS Trends tool is FREE to FantasyLabs users. This video from FantasyLabs Cofounder Jonathan Bales walks through how to use the Trends tool for any daily fantasy sport.

Our Trends section is perhaps the most unique and powerful tool we offer. You can query daily fantasy situations to see whether specific parameters have historically led to daily fantasy value. We allow our users to see all past results, as well as current matches. You can find hidden DFS value and then apply it directly to your lineup process.

1) Creating a Trend

To create a trend, select “Create a Fantasy Trend” on the main Trends page.

This will generate a pop-up window that says “Add Trend.” This is where you will name your trend and select your position (pitchers or batters in MLB, for example) and site (DraftKings or FanDuel). Then hit “OK.”

You are now in the Trends tool. There are four main sections of the Trends page. Let’s start with the two at the top.

Right under your trend name at the top of the page, you will see five data points: Count, Avg Expected Pts, Avg Actual Pts, Points +/-, and Consistency. Here is a quick definition of each (you can hover over the “i” if you ever need a reminder):

Count: The number of times the trend has occurred in the past (the sample size)

Avg Expected Pts: The average points expected for those players based on salaries

Avg Actual Pts: The average actual points scored by the players who match the search criteria

Points +/-: The difference between the two (actual points minus expected points)

Consistency: The percentage of times the trend meets or exceeds expectations

The top-left part of the page has a column that says “General” and lists filter options. This is where you will choose your filters to create your trend. Let’s create a sample trend.

Let’s query how batters perform when they are 1) priced at $5,000 or more on DraftKings and 2) on a team that’s the favorite and projected to score 4.5 or more runs.

You will need to add three filters. The first one will be a salary filter, so select “Player Filters” and Salary” to start.

This will generate a pop-up window for you to adjust your filters. In this sample trend, you are looking for players who are $5,000 or more, so you will type “5000” into the first box to restrict our trend to those players (you can also drag the slider to 5000). Select “OK” to add this filter.

Our data points mentioned above will then adjust according to this trend.

You will then add in the other two filters – the first is Vegas Filters > Runs > “4.5 to 6.6” and the second is Vegas Filters > Favorite/Dog > “Favorite.” After adding those filters, you have your completed trend:

As you can see, players in this scenario have been historically expected to score 8.98 fantasy points and actually scored 9.43, which leads to a +0.45 Plus/Minus.

Let’s now look at the next two sections of the main Trends page: the 1) chart and 2) past results and current matches.

The initial chart shows the whole trend’s Plus/Minus distribution, but you can also view the performance of the trend over time by selecting “By Day” or “By Month” on the right-hand side of the page.

To read the chart, the height of the bar (or the y-axis) shows the count, or sample size, of the Plus/Minus distribution (the x-axis). You can hover over each bar to see the specific number count; for example, this trend has 838 historical “hits” of players scoring between -10 and 0 fantasy points under these conditions.

To share this trend, select “Copy” and share the generated link. To share the chart image, select “Save Image” next to the link.

Next, you can see each individual historical match of our count (which has 1,533 total matches) by selecting “Past Results.”

All columns are sortable by clicking on them. From here, we can look at the matches for the current DFS slate by selecting “Current Matches.”

In order to view the next section, you must be a FantasyLabs Pro subscriber.

You are now looking at players in the current slate of DFS games that fit your trend—batters priced at $5,000 or more on DraftKings, projected for at least 4.5 runs, and favorites.

Congratulations! You have created your first trend. It is now saved under “My Trends” on the main trends page.

Right under “My Trends” is a “Pro Trends” button. These are historical valuable trends we have identified for you. To add one, select “Pro Trends” and then click “Copy” next to the Pro Trend you want added to your “My Trends” section.

2) Plus/Minus

Plus/Minus is a unique FantasyLabs metric that is at the core of all of our tools. It is defined as actual fantasy points minus expected fantasy points based on salary. This distinction is important, as daily fantasy sports are played with a salary cap. We can only really know a player’s value when we measure his fantasy production in relation to his price.

As an example, a $5,000 batter on DraftKings might be expected to score 8.0 points. If he scores 10.0 points in a game, he’s turned in a Plus/Minus of +2.0. Plus/Minus is a way to put every player on an even playing field using historical salaries and performance data—something other sites cannot do.

Setting everyone on an even playing field is what makes our Trends tool so powerful; our Plus/Minus metric has eliminated the fantasy-point discrepancy that makes it impossible to find value. Instead, you can use our Trends tool to apply many different filters to create an essentially unlimited number of trends to provide hidden daily fantasy value, both historically and in the future.

3) Tips and Tricks

Tip 1: View “My Trends” in Player Models

Once you create a trend, it saves under “My Trends” on the main trends page. These trends also show up in Player Models as a column. Click on the number to bring them up.

Tip 2: The Importance of Large Samples

In general, the larger the count (or sample size) of a trend, the more confidence we have in the validity and predictability of that trend. Your sample trend above had a count of 1,446 batters. With a count that high, we can be reasonably sure that the Plus/Minus value we’re viewing is indicative of the trend.

Because there are so many filters, it can be enticing to use several on a single trend to boost the Plus/Minus as high as possible.

For example, I have added several more trends to our sample one above. The following trend shows batters who (like your old trend) 1) are at least $5,000 or more on DraftKings, 2) projected to score at least 4.5 runs, and 3) on the favorite. However, this trend also filters down the player pool to those who 4) are playing on a Sunday, 5) on the visiting team, 6) have at least 10 Pro Trends, and 7) have a Bargain Rating of at least 50 on DraftKings.

As you can see, the Plus/Minus has gone from +0.45 to an impressive +3.94. However, you can see by the count that there are only five matches historically for this hodgepodge of filters. A sample size of five is much too small; we cannot have any assurance that this trend holds any predictive value.

The lesson here is: Keep it simple. Stick to trends with high samples.

Tip 3: Choosing a course in PGA Trends

Our PGA Trends tool allows you to select a course as the basis for your trend.

If you don’t select a course to begin your trend, you can still select a course as a filter within that trend. The difference is found in our Plus/Minus metric; if you select the course for your trend, it will use only data from that course as the baseline to calculate the Plus/Minus of each trend. Because of the nature of PGA DFS—there are no positions or “matchups”—this is a way to find true value for each course.

For an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, where you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.