Week 5 saw an explosion of offense across the USFL, with all four games going over 40 points scored. (The highest betting total on the slate was 37.) This was somewhat predictable, as USFL teams had only a brief training camp, and getting on the same page takes time.
Given how poorly the overall passing environment was up until that point, it likely means we see some undervalued pass catchers in Week 6. There were two 100-yard receiving performances last week, as well as a 10-catch 92-yard line. I expect the general trend to continue in that direction, even if betting markets don’t — we still don’t have a USFL total over 40 on the board this week.
Anything truly can happen in this league, so priority number one should be avoiding groupthink and overly chalky players. From a game theory standpoint, if a sport was 100% random, the biggest edge would belong to whomever the least popular player is. The USFL isn’t entirely random, but even at this point in the season, we know less than most of the field thinks.
Lineup construction is different with the USFL than for NFL DFS. Only six offensive players make the roster, with one quarterback and running back, two WR/TE spots, and two flexes. That means we don’t have to roster a tight end and can load up on high-upside wide receivers. It also means tight ends will be much lower owned, which could be an edge.
The scoring system is carried over from the NFL, with the lone exception being three-point conversions counting for…three fantasy points. Yes, the USFL has three-point PATs, which are attempted from the 10-yard line.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at who our models like at each position.
USFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Pick
J’Mar Smith ($10,000): Birmingham Stallions (-6.5) vs. Michigan Panthers
The USFL’s points per game leader at quarterback returned to action last week after missing Week 4 with an illness. He looked no worse for the wear, throwing for over 200 yards and a score while running for an additional touchdown. He’s averaged five rushing attempts per game on the season, giving him moderate dual-threat upside to go with his passing production.
He’ll need that rushing production to be a week-winner, with Birmingham ranking just fourth in passing attempts per game. This one likely comes down to how close Michigan’s offense can keep it since an easy win for Birmingham limits Smith’s upside to a degree. Michigan’s defense has also held opposing quarterbacks to the lowest score of any team in the league, adding another degree of difficulty.
Either way, he’s the leader in median and ceiling projections in our models this week. Given his production thus far, he’ll probably be fairly popular. If using him for tournaments, I want to stack him with some Panthers options as well. Somebody on that side of the ball will have to have a good game for Smith to reach his ceiling.
Tournament Picks
De’Andre Johnson ($8,700): New Jersey Generals (-7) vs. Houston Gamblers
The dual-threat Johnson continues to go overlooked by the field, being rostered in just 3.7% of USFL Play Action lineups last week. He made the other 96.3% of players pay, though, putting up 23.42 DraftKings points. As usual, he did his best work with his legs. Johnson scored two rushing touchdowns to go with 39 yards on 10 attempts.
More importantly, he served as the Generals’ primary quarterback for the first time last week. He was solid with his arm, completing two-thirds of his passes for 213 yards. While there’s no guarantee that New Jersey sticks with Johnson as the primary quarterback, they had their highest-scoring game of the season with him under center full time.
If he plays the whole way again, this will probably be our last chance to catch him at relatively low ownership. Sharp players will have already noticed his role change, but I suspect there’s still some meat on that bone. Johnson ranks second in our models for median and ceiling projection while easily leading in Pts/Sal.
The Gamblers have been the USFL’s friendliest team to opposing quarterbacks this year.
Kyle Sloter ($11,000): New Orleans Breakers (-8) vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
Sloter’s 36 pass attempts in last week’s loss was his lowest since Week 1. No other USFL team averages more than 34 passing attempts per game. That fact keeps Sloter in the weekly conversation, even if he’s the slate’s most expensive quarterback. His Breakers have the highest team total on the slate, though the risk of a blowout is somewhat concerning. On the other hand, Sloter’s best fantasy score came in a 34-3 win, so I wouldn’t sweat that angle too much.
The other appeal to Sloter is his ease of stacking. With other high-scoring USFL quarterbacks primarily getting their with rushing production, they don’t necessarily bring receivers along with them. That’s not the case with Sloter, who ranks second in point per game despite averaging only 10 yards (with one touchdown) on the ground.
He’s not projecting especially well — especially relative to his salary — but Breaker’s stacks have the potential to completely break(er) the slate this week.
Those start with Sloter.
USFL DFS Running Backs
