With the start of Week 5, the USFL has officially made it past the halfway point of their inaugural season. In theory, at least, that means we should have enough data to be making informed decisions based on things like past player usage, betting markets, and the like. In practice, though, this is still minor-league football with a high degree of variance.
Last week, I hilariously mentioned that projections and betting lines should be fairly efficient at this point in the season. Naturally, the week’s highest-scoring team was the Philadelphia Stars — who featured a backup quarterback taking on the league’s best scoring defense (to that point) in the game with the lowest total. The league’s highest-scoring quarterback up to that point — J’Marr Smith — didn’t even play in Week 4. (He was initially the Stallions’ backup, and starter Alex Mcgough returned in Week 4.)
Anything truly can happen in this league, so priority number one should be avoiding group think and overly chalky players. From a game theory standpoint, if a sport was 100% random, the biggest edge would belong to whomever the least popular player is. The USFL isn’t entirely random, but even at this point in the season, we know less than most of the field thinks.
Lineup construction is different with the USFL than for NFL DFS. Only six offensive players make the roster, with one quarterback and running back, two WR/TE spots, and two flexes. That means we don’t have to roster a tight end and can load up on high-upside wide receivers. It also means tight ends will be much lower owned, which could be an edge.
The scoring system is carried over from the NFL, with the lone exception being three-point conversions counting for…three fantasy points. Yes, the USFL has three-point PATs, which are attempted from the 10-yard line.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at who our models like at each position.
USFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Pick
Jordan Ta’Amu ($11,000):Tampa Bay Bandits (-2) vs. Michigan Panthers
While the Panthers are (on paper) the USFL’s best defense — they rank first in points allowed on the season. They also got lit up (by USFL standards) for 26 points last week by the Stars and their backup quarterback, Case Cookus ($8,000) last week.
Ta’Amu should be able to replicate that success, with the only question being whether Michigan’s offense can keep pace enough to keep Ta’Amu throwing. Ta’Amu is averaging a healthy 27 pass attempts per game this year. That ranks second in the league, but he also adds some rushing upside. He has six attempts in each of the Bandits’ last two games, for a total of 64 yards and a rushing score.
Ta’Amu leads our median projections for quarterbacks this week, but he’s also the most expensive player. Salary is extremely loose in USFL DFS, so that shouldn’t be a problem, though. He’s a safe pick but also likely to be a popular one this week.
Kyle Sloter ($10,800): New Orleans Breakers (-3) vs. New Jersey Generals
Sloter is the best pure passer in the USFL, with over 1,000 yards passing through the first four games. Nobody else has topped 627 (Ta’Amu). Sloter is one of the few USFL quarterbacks to push the ball downfield, with the best YPA of any starting quarterback — and the most pass attempts.
This week, his Breakers have the highest implied total on the slate, as they’re three-point favorites in the game with the highest total. The 3-1 generals have one of the tougher scoring defenses in the league, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem for New Orleans.
The knock on Sloter is his lack of rushing upside, with just 38 yards on the ground this season. However, he’s so far beyond any other USFL QB in terms of passing production that it’s not too big of an issue. He’s projected just behind Ta’Amu for median projection this week, but with the higher ceiling. I’d also expect him to be fairly popular, given the betting markets trust in New Orleans this week.
Tournament Picks
De’Andre Johnson ($8,700): New Jersey Generals vs. New Orleans Breakers
While Johnson is the Generals’ backup on paper, he’s the far more attractive fantasy option. He fills in as a dual-threat quarterback, running RPOs and the like for New Jersey. There’s a high degree of variance in his performance, though, as he relies on long runs to put up fantasy points.
He has two games with over 90 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground, and another two with 41 yards rushing combined. For what it’s worth — and I can’t believe I’m even going there — both of the good performances were on odd-numbered weeks. If he’s able to pick up the 100-yard bonus and find the endzone with his legs, that’s 19 fantasy points right there.
Only one USFL quarterback is averaging over 19 points per game, so anything we get from Johnson’s arm would be a bonus at that point. His status as a nominal backup should keep ownership reasonable, which makes him a fantastic — but risky — GPP play.
He ranks fourth in median projection in our models.
Case Cookus ($8,000): Philadelphia Stars (+6) at Birmingham Stallions
“Let Case Cookus!” both Stars fans screamed at home, watching the backup rise to the occasion for Philadelphia last week. Cookus was excellent in relief for the Stars, completing over 70 percent of his passes for two touchdowns and 190 yards last week.
This week, he has an even easier matchup in theory against the high-flying (again, by USFL standards) Stallions. Birmingham has scored more points than any other USFL team while ranking middle of the pack in scoring defense. That should compel the Stars to take to the air again.
That gives Cookus at least the chance to post a big score, and he has some rushing upside as well. He produced 35 yards on the ground with four carries last week, which is a nice bonus to go with his passing production. Cookus should be the least popular of the quarterbacks mentioned to this point.
He trails only Sloter and Ta’Amu in median projection.
USFL DFS Running Backs
