Now with two weeks of USFL action behind us, we have a reasonable understanding of what to expect. Not only that, but betting markets will continue to grow more efficient, giving us more insight into how games are likely to play out. Of course, some player usage will still leave questions.
Some players were used heavily in one week but not the other, for example. Those will be key decision points as we build our lineups heading into Week 3.
Lineup construction is different with the USFL than for NFL DFS. Only six offensive players make the roster, with one quarterback and running back, two WR/TE spots, and two flexes. That means we don’t have to roster a tight end and can load up on high-upside wide receivers. (It also means tight ends will be much lower owned, which could be an edge.)
The scoring system is carried over from the NFL, with the lone exception being three-point conversions counting for…three fantasy points. (Yes, the USFL has three-point PATs, which are attempted from the 10-yard line.)
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at who our models like at each position.
USFL DFS Quarterbacks
Top Pick
J’Mar Smith ($8,600): Birmingham Stallions (+4) vs. New Orleans Breakers
Smith was originally slated as the Stallions’ backup, but a Week 1 ankle injury to starter Alex McGough ($8,000) thrust him into a starting role. While we don’t have firm news McGough will miss Week 3; it appears likely that Smith will continue to get the starting nod.
He’s performed admirably, though, particularly in Week 2 as a full starter. He completed two-thirds of his passes for a solid 7.6 yards per attempt (YPA) while adding an additional eight rushes for 31 yards. This Stallions offense appears to be one of the few in the USFL that’s committed to the pass, so whoever starts under center will be in a good position.
Fortunately, their Week 3 opponent, the Breakers are another such team. These teams are first and second in scoring through two weeks, with a wide gap between Birmingham at two and the third-place team. That should lead to a back-and-forth affair Saturday night, which would be a good sign for Smith.
He’s the leader at the position in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections. With only three teams (these two as well as Philadelphia) averaging over 200 passing yards a game, quarterback options are limited.
Smith has the most rushing upside of the bunch, making him the top overall choice.
Tournament Picks
Kyle Sloter ($9,700): New Orleans Breakers (-4) vs. Birmingham Stallions
Sloter is the other quarterback in what looks to be the best offensive game on the slate, as his Breakers are favored by four against the Stallions. While in the NFL, we’d prefer a cheaper underdog to a more expensive favorite, we shouldn’t put too much stock into the betting lines for the USFL. While they’re getting more efficient throughout the season, it wouldn’t be a shock to see New Orleans playing from behind.
Sloter has been solid so far, ranking second in fantasy points per game at the position. He had an excellent 27-point performance last week in an easy Breakers win against Tampa Bay. This week he’s taking on the league’s worst scoring defense in the Stallions so that he could be in for another big performance.
With only two games in the books, it’s tremendously hard to evaluate defensive quality. However, both of Birmingham’s first two opponents (Houston and New Jersey) scored at least 10 more points against Birmingham than their other opponent. This might just be the best team to attack through the air.
While Sloter is the most limited with his legs of the top quarterback options, he could make up for it with his arm.
He ranks third in median and ceiling projections for Week 3 quarterbacks.
Bryan Scott ($10,100): Philadelphia Stars (-1) vs. New Jersey Generals
Scott has been the USFL’s best quarterback so far. He leads the league in yardage, touchdowns, completion percentage, and (crucially) attempts. The Stars offense is the pass-happiest in the league, making Scott and his receivers always an option.
It’s hard to say what kind of matchup New Jersey presents, as they allowed 24 points to Birmingham but held Michigan to just six. For what it’s worth, Michigan appears totally dysfunctional on offense (thanks, Jeff Fisher), though. It’s likelier that New Jersey didn’t so much hole Michigan to six points as allow the Panthers to implode.
Either way, Philadelphia should be able to find some success here. This game trails only New Orleans against Birmingham in terms of the betting total. Scott should be the driver of that for Philadelphia, and he trails only Smith in median and ceiling projections.
De’Andre Johnson ($7,700) New Jersey Generals (+1) vs. Philadelphia Stars
The Generals wildcat quarterback is the dark horse option in Week 3. He’s not much of a passer, attempting just 14 passes through two weeks. However, he has plenty of designed runs called for him. In Week 1, he turned 12 of them into 98 yards and a score. On the other hand, last week, 10 runs became 27 scoreless yards.
Johnson’s stat lines will continue to exhibit a high degree of variance. Given how limited the passing is in the USFL though, his good weeks will have him challenging for the best quarterback score on the slate.
Will it be this week? I have no idea. But he’s worth a few lineups if multi-entering.
USFL DFS Running Backs
