The first season of the revived USFL is in the books, with plenty of lessons to be had. Before we start, it’s important to note how small of a sample size one week is. While many of our assumptions heading into the season are/will be wrong, much of what we assume based on only one week will be too.
With that said, there are certainly general trends we need to pay attention to. Using box scores, DFS contest data, and last week’s projections, we should be able to glean some actionable insight.
While this piece is primarily intended for a DFS audience, there will be some betting thoughts in here as well. Here are some of the biggest lessons after the first week of USFL action.
It’s a Running League
There was optimism around a handful of the passing games and quarterbacks in the USFL heading into Week 1. Half of the starting quarterbacks had median projections in our USFL Models of at least 16 points. None of that group scored even 12 points.
The only quarterback to post a score that would be even remotely usable by NFL standards was De’Andre Johnson of the Generals. Johnson wasn’t his team’s starting quarterback and attempted only eight passes. However, he did lead the entire league in rushing yards in Week 1 with 98. He also added a touchdown on the ground.
If the top quarterback scoring the bulk of his points on the ground doesn’t prove how run-heavy this league is, nothing will.
To further complicate matters, 12 different quarterbacks attempted at least five passes in Week 1. That means half of the league’s twelve teams rotated quarterbacks to an extent. Timeshare quarterbacks aren’t something we’re used to in the NFL, but they look to be a major part of the USFL (so far).
Finding consistent rushing production out of the quarterback spot will therefore be key. Outside of Johnson, Shea Patterson and Kyle Sloter also rushed for at least 30 yards in their first game. Sloter and Patterson both ranked in the top four in passing attempts as well and look to be among the better options at the position going forward.
Points are Hard to Come By
This holds true both from a DFS and real-life perspective. Only one game topped 40 points; the opener between Tampa Bay and Birmingham. That naturally keeps DFS scoring down, with the winning lineup of the “USFL Touchdown” 7,058-player contest needing only 112.78 points on DraftKings to win.
Only one player hit 100 yards rushing or receiving; Randy Satterfield of New Jersey. The leading passer threw for just 202 yards. Part of this is poor offensive play in general, and part is due to widely distributed offenses. No single running back carried the ball more than 18 times, despite some massive rush play counts at the team level. We saw team carry counts like the Generals at 44, Panthers at 46, and Breakers at 39 without producing any “have to have it” running back scores.
As such, finding running backs who can catch a few passes will be even more critical than in NFL contests. Unfortunately, most teams split the workload fairly heavily between ball carriers and receivers out of the backfield. Still, there were some standouts. T.J. Logan of the Breakers had four targets and 15 carries, and Trey Williams of the Generals had five targets and 13 carries. Both backs were under $5,000 and not expected to be the RB1 for their teams.
Moving forward, we need to make sure any backs we roster have some pass-catching upside. Despite the heavy rushing volume, USFL defenses were able to stack the box and limit yardage. Backs like BJ Emmons, Jordan Ellis, and Garret Groshek (all of whom had at least 18 carries) can get there if they break a big play but will have a hard time matching the dual-threat backs on a weekly basis.
I also expect this to change a bit as teams get more practice time together. The USFL had only a three-week training camp, which is less than my little league team had in 5th grade. That’s not a ton of time to install complex offensive concepts or for quarterbacks to get on the same page as their receivers. As their comfort levels grow, scoring should too.
I’d expect Week 2 betting totals to be even lower than they were in Week 1 since three of the four games went under. It will be a good time to pounce on some overs if that turns out to be the case.
Draft Capital Didn’t Tell Us Much
This is the most painful lesson from Week 1, as many of us (myself included) assumed that players selected higher in the draft would necessarily see more volume. We had a bit of an advanced warning on the folly of that line of thinking as New Jersey cut their first running back selected (and the third back overall) before Week 1 even began.
There were plenty of examples of draft capital backfiring, though. Isaiah Zuber — the second receiver drafted — saw only two targets. He salvaged his fantasy day by turning one of them into a touchdown. Still, he was well behind JoJo Ward (nine targets) in the pecking order.
Shawn Poindexter was picked third and led our projections for receivers. He failed to record a single catch. Randy Satterfield is the current USFL fantasy scoring leader. He’s also the fourth receiver drafted by his team.
Even the quarterback was less stable than we might’ve hoped. Three of the first quarterbacks selected failed to lead their team in pass attempts.
The corollary to this lesson is that projections are — and will continue to be — very unstable. While they should get better moving forward, I wouldn’t shy away from taking lesser projected players. They should come in at significantly less ownership and put you in a great position for a big win if they go right.
Don’t Forget About Tight Ends
I didn’t get much right in my Week 1 USFL Breakdown. This is one spot I nailed, though. With no requirement to play a tight end, I expected them to go overlooked. I highlighted a few players in particular but mentioned Cheyenne O’Grady in particular. O’Grady plays for one of three teams with only two tight ends on the roster. I also expected USFL quarterbacks to be quick to dump short passes off to their tight ends. (Jordan Ta’amu, O’Grady’s quarterback, in particular.)
O’Grady led the league in targets and receptions in Week 1 while coming in under 2% owned in most contests. Another tight end, Sal Canella, ranks seventh in targets overall after one week. The five highest-priced flex players in Week 1 were all wide receivers. None of them caught five or more passes.
Similarly, it’s optimal to not jam in four wide receivers. Most lineups included four receivers, but the winning lineup had three receivers and two backs. As long as USFL teams continue to establish it, multi-back lineups have a place. The top-12 flex players last week included six running backs and two tight ends.
Wrapping Up
Moving forward, expect projections and betting markets to grow in efficiency. They should still be taken with a grain of salt, though, as Week 1 could be a fluke.
The biggest information advantage we have compared to last week is in quarterback usage, though. With basically half of the teams using a QBBC, our pool should be limited to only full-time starters.
We can also look to bet the over on teams with semi-competent quarterback play. Be sure to check back in later this week for the Week 2 USFL DFS Breakdown.
