When Should We Use Cheap Quarterbacks in DFS?

When The Ginger Snaps

There was a period of time during the 2016 season when DraftKings was inefficiently (or inaccurately) pricing lower-tier quarterbacks on a routine basis.

Andy Dalton was one of those cheap signal-callers and he started the 2015 season as red-hot as his hair. Despite opening the first five games with QB12, QB13, QB2, QB6, and QB4 performances on DraftKings, he was never priced over $6,100 (the minimum is $5,500).

Dalton smashed his salary-based expectations by +11.45 fantasy points in Weeks 1-5 and finished his 2015-16 campaign — before injuring his thumb — tied for the ninth-best Plus/Minus among quarterbacks.

This article is intended to identify when the climate is right to find our proverbial Andy Dalton. Each week is its own puzzle, but since quarterback opportunity is easy to predict and outcomes are tethered to defensive strength, cheap quarterbacks can provide easy Upside unlike any other offensive position.

Plus/Minus, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.

What are some of the indicators that point us to use low-priced quarterbacks on DraftKings?

Setting Some Baselines

First, let’s set some parameters. Here’s how quarterbacks priced at or below $7,000 on DraftKings fare on average:

 

Immediately we see that bargain quarterbacks consistently beat their salary-based expectations almost 60 percent of the time. This is valuable information, but games aren’t played in a vacuum.

At FantasyLabs, we have an Opponent Position Plus/Minus statistic that quantifies a defense’s relative strength against particular positions. It adjusts for opponent strength and factors in price to give a true measure of defensive strength. The metric is based on a linear scale (-10 indicates a strong defense vs. a certain position and +10 indicates a weak one) so, a 0.00 Plus/Minus would be considered average.

Check out what happens when cheap quarterbacks face defenses that, on average, give up at least two points above what is expected to opposing signal-callers:

 

This should be intuitive: Cheap quarterbacks who face teams that are below-average at defending the position are good DFS assets.

For an unparalleled DFS edge, try our free Trends tool, through which you can access our massive database of advanced data and leverage our premium exclusive metrics, such as Bargain Rating, Upside, Consistency, and Plus/Minus.

Now that we have set some baselines: How predictive is Vegas data when bargain signal-callers are involved?

Chasing Favorites

Everyone knows that, over the long run, running backs score more fantasy points when their teams are home favorites.

When it comes to quarterbacks — regardless of price — the same idea is true. Rotoworld’s Evan Silva found that of all 2015 performances 56.9 percent of top-six weekly scorers played at home. Separately, 61.4 percent of top scorers were on teams favored to win.

In general, does that same theory hold for cheap quarterbacks?

Here’s a trend that screens for low-cost quarterbacks at home and favored by Vegas:

 

Regardless of opponent quality, we want our bargain passers to be at home and favored by Vegas.

And what happens when we combine our two previous screens?

 

Now we’re cooking with gas.

On average, quarterbacks priced at or below $7,000 exceed their salary-based expectations with 72 percent Consistency when they’re at home, favored, and facing a weak sub-average defense. Not only are these cheap passers great tournament plays because of their Upside but their also safe for cash games as well on account of their Consistency.

The “YOLO” Rushing QB Strategy

Of course, we want to find cheap quarterbacks who are home favorites facing leaky defenses, but that perfect storm doesn’t always brew.

Another way to find cheap Upside among signal-callers is to look for passers who can run the ball.

Running quarterbacks — a.k.a. the “Konami Code,” as coined by Rich Hribar — can provide hidden Upside, especially with cut-price quarterbacks. In fact, passers who run five or more times per game on average score 1.94 points more than passers who rush no more than four times per contest, regardless of price.

Here’s what we can expect from cheap quarterbacks who average at least five rush attempts per game:

 

As you can see, there is a distinct correlation between Plus/Minus and rush attempts:

 

However, unlike our other trends, cheap rushing quarterbacks aren’t as positively affected by home-road splits. This is likely because the additional rushes per game provide a larger floor to cancel out the home and Vegas effects:

 

It’s still a small sample, but the average Plus/Minus for running passers on the road is +4.2 points over expectation (29 observations). There is not a significant difference between home and road splits when cheap rushing quarterbacks are involved.

Easy on the Pocket

Now that the data is laid out, let’s finalize our takeaways.

First, quarterbacks priced at or below $7,000 on DraftKings exceed their salary-based expectation 59.2 percent of the time. The data grows stronger when you add in opponent strength and when the passer is at home and favored by Vegas.

If, on a given week, no quarterbacks fit our mold, we can supplement our cheap quarterback fix with a glutton of rush attempts. Keep in mind that home-road splits matter almost not at all when selecting a cheap “Konami Code” passer.

In general, we want to hit at least two criteria with a bargain quarterback: At home and favored by Vegas. Weaker opponent strength is preferred, but if all else fails rely on cheap rushing attempts.