In daily fantasy baseball, the concept of the team is almost as important as the concept of the individual. Events in baseball are highly correlated — hits lead to baserunners, baserunners lead to RBI chances, and RBIs equate to runs scored — so it makes sense to stack a group of hitters on one team as opposed to rostering a bunch of individual batters from different teams. If you stack an offense that goes on to score a bunch of runs, odds are that your batters will score a decent amount of fantasy points.
That said, not all offenses are created equal. Many DFS players will attack the offenses that are implied for the most runs on a given slate, focusing on batters who fall within the top six spots in the order:
Outside of the very top end of the spectrum, there isn’t a huge jump in production from one end to the other, but the average ownership for each tier jumps at each level.
More importantly for guaranteed prize pools, the Upside Rating for each tier is mostly stagnant, which suggests that batters on teams with low implied run totals are nearly as capable of exploding as their higher-implied counterparts. When factoring in the difference in ownership, the data suggests that there can be value in targeting offenses with lower implied run totals at the expense of those at the higher end.
With that in mind, lets use our MLB Trends Tool to look at offenses that were overvalued and undervalued last season and could find themselves improperly valued again in 2018.
Undervalued
Atlanta Braves vs. Left-Handed Pitchers
The Braves lineup was extremely undervalued against lefties last season. Against southpaws, Atlanta’s top six batters averaged the the second-highest average Plus/Minus (+1.17) on the fifth-most DraftKings points per game (8.68), yet its average ownership of 4.9% ranked just 19th among all teams. Part of the reason for such minimal ownership was that three left-handed hitters — Ender Inciarte, Freddie Freeman, and Nick Markakis — occupied spots in the top six of the order for the majority of the season. However, all three of them posted a positive Plus/Minus against left-handed pitchers (in fact, Inciarte’s average Plus/Minus of +1.74 against lefties was significantly higher than his +0.14 mark against righties).
The Braves lineup has a chance to improve even more against left-handed pitchers this season. The departed Matt Kemp posted an average Plus/Minus of -0.64 last year against southpaws, while two players projected to bat in the top six of the order this year, infielder Ozzie Albies and catcher Tyler Flowers, both posted an average Plus/Minus of at least +3.09 when facing a lefty.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Right-Handed Pitchers
The Miami Marlins were far and away the best value against right-handers in 2017, but unfortunately they gutted basically their entire roster. The top six of the Reds order wasn’t quite as potent as Miami’s, but still averaged the fourth-most fantasy points and third-highest Plus/Minus against righties last season despite being owned an average of 5.0%, which ranked just 19th in the league. Cincinnati’s lineup is headlined by perennially underrated first baseman Joey Votto, who posted a .433 wOBA and .257 ISO against right-handers last season. Second baseman Scooter Gennett is currently projected to occupy the fifth spot in the lineup, and he posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.29 against righties last season. Rookie outfielder Jesse Winker could also provide value if given a chance to bat in the top six after posting a .438 wOBA and .271 ISO in 96 Major League at bats against righties last season.
Overvalued
Boston Red Sox vs. Left-Handed Pitchers
The Red Sox were far and away the worst team to stack against left-handers last season, with the top six of the order posting the worst average Plus/Minus (-0.88) and fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game (7.11) — all despite having the sixth-highest team ownership rate (6.9%). Only Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, and rookie first baseman Sam Travis (who?) posted a positive Plus/Minus against southpaws, while each of the other 13 players that occupied a spot in the top half of the Red Sox order all had a negative Plus/Minus. Making matters worse, Boston will start 2018 missing Pedroia — who has historically crushed left-handed pitching — while he recovers from a knee injury.
Not that there aren’t reasons for optimism: Boston added one of the top available free agents in J.D. Martinez, who absolutely destroyed lefties last season to the tune of a .531 wOBA and .411 ISO over 110 plate appearances. Hanley Ramirez is due for positive regression after posting a .276 wOBA and .208 ISO against southpaws last season, which were both significantly lower than his career marks of .381 and .225, respectively. In fact, Ramirez had a batting average on balls in play of just .181 against lefties last season, suggesting his .179 actual batting average against them was the result of a significant amount of bad luck.
Adding Martinez to their other high-profile names ensures the Red Sox will still be extremely popular and expensive in DFS, however, setting them up for a repeat of 2017, when the actual value they produced didn’t warrant the ownership they received — meaning there will be merit to fading Boston stacks on many slates.
Chicago Cubs vs. Right-Handed Pitchers
The Colorado Rockies averaged the worst Plus/Minus against right-handed pitchers last season, but the Cubs weren’t far behind:
The Consistency Rating and Upside Rating of the Cubbies’ top six batters also ranked in the bottom six of the league against righties — nowhere close to deserving of their league-leading 9.2% ownership. Sluggers Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo combined to post an average Plus/Minus of just +0.07 against righties, thanks in part to their exorbitant salaries. Catcher Willson Contreras, who is expected to open 2018 as the cleanup hitter, was Chicago’s best value against right-handers last season with a Plus/Minus of +1.54, which is low for a team leader.
While the top of the lineup should get a boost from second-year outfielder Ian Happ, who posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.14 against righties last season, replacing Ben Zobrist (-0.87), the Cubs will still be an expensive team to stack — especially if the young Happ and Contreras continue to improve at the plate. Like the Red Sox against lefties, the value that Cubs stacks produce against righties may struggle to keep pace with the ownership they receive.
Don’t forget you can use the Stacks tool in our MLB Models to analyze and build as many stacks as you want for each slate.
Photo Above: Joey Votto.
Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports.
