In daily fantasy sports, the name of the game is value. It’s not just about targeting the top players, but rather the players who are the best values relative to their respective price tags. This is especially true with pitchers, who typically command the majority of the salary cap and score the most points. Winning a large-field tournament is nearly impossible if you don’t nail your pitcher spot(s).
With that in mind, we can leverage the power of the Trends tool to identify pitchers that may be improperly valued heading into 2018.
Undervalued
Luis Severino, Yankees
The Yankees were not supposed to contend last year, but part of the reason they were ahead of schedule was the emergence of Severino as a true ace. He was the sixth-highest scoring pitcher last season, averaging 23.39 DraftKings points per game, but his average salary wasn’t nearly as high as some of the other stud pitchers. The result was a Plus/Minus of +5.51, which ranked fourth among pitchers who made at least 14 starts. Severino was one of the top strikeout artists in the league, posting a K/9 of 10.71, and his peripheral numbers suggest his 2.98 ERA was no fluke. He posted the seventh-highest groundball rate in the league at 50.6%, while his line drive rate of 18.8% was the ninth-lowest. Severino deserves to be treated as one of the best pitchers in the league and could potentially fly under the radar on a loaded opening day slate after his average ownership of 24.9% last season ranked just 15th among pitchers who made at least 10 starts.
Aaron Nola, Phillies
Nola got off to a rough start last season but finished as one of the top pitcher values in DFS. He averaged 22.88 DraftKings points per game and a Plus/Minus of +7.81 over his final 20 starts, which made him the second-most valuable pitcher over that time frame. That said, his average ownership of 20.1% ranked outside the top 20 at the position. Nola’s 2017 peripherals suggest he was slightly unlucky as well: He allowed a batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, of .309, which was the 18th-highest mark in the league, and could take another step forward in 2018 if he regresses in that department.
Luis Castillo, Reds
The Reds figure to have one of the worst rotations in the league this season, but Castillo could be a bright spot. He was very impressive in 15 starts as a rookie, posting a 3.12 ERA and 9.87 K/9. The result was a Plus/Minus of +6.39 on DraftKings, which was the second-highest average for pitchers that made multiple starts last season. When batters managed to put the ball in play against Castillo, he posted an elite groundball rate of 58.8%, which would’ve been the fourth-best mark in the league had he pitched enough innings to qualify. Any pitcher with the ability to strike batters out and keep the ball on the ground has the potential to be a valuable fantasy asset, and Castillo’s average ownership of just 11.2% last season suggests he could be undervalued heading into 2018.
Overvalued
Jon Lester, Cubs
At the other end of the spectrum, Lester was extremely overvalued by the DFS community last season, posting a Plus/Minus of -2.22 on DraftKings over 32 starts while commanding an average ownership of 18.9%. Lester benefits from playing for one of the best teams in the league in the Chicago Cubs, which can lead to tempting Vegas odds. The Cubs were an underdog in just five of Lester’s starts last season, but were a favorite of -150 or better 20 times. Lester often failed to live up to those lofty expectations. His walks per nine innings (3.0) increased for the fourth straight season, his HR/Flyball rate jumped to a career-high 15.8%, and his 4.22 ERA was his highest mark since 2012 by over half a run. While last season’s outliers suggest Lester could at least see some positive regression in 2018, it’s also possible that the 34-year-old’s days as a top-tier pitcher are over.
Lance McCullers, Astros
McCullers is extremely tantalizing as a DFS asset. He plays behind a dominant offense and has a career K/9 of 10.2, which undoubtedly played a part in his spiked average ownership of 29.8% on DraftKings in 2017. McCullers struggled to reward that ownership, however, posting a Plus/Minus of -1.76 over 22 starts. That said, it’s hard not to expect positive regression for McCullers if he can stay healthy in 2018. He posted a groundball rate of 61.3% last season, and his Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.10 was more than a full run lower than his traditional ERA of 4.25.
Madison Bumgarner, Giants
Is it possible that Bumgarner is already past his prime? He’s only 28 years old, but has logged a tremendous amount of innings (1,611) between the regular season and playoffs throughout his career. He missed time due to a freak injury last season after falling off a dirt bike, but he was mostly uninspiring over 17 starts. His ERA of 3.32 wasn’t terrible, but his FIP of 3.95 suggests things could have been worse. He posted a K/9 of just 8.19, which was his lowest mark since 2010 and a big reason for his -1.20 Plus/Minus. His BABIP of .272 kept his numbers from ballooning even further, but any regression in that department could spell disaster in 2018. Bumgarner will need to prove he still deserves to be treated as an ace after coming off the disabled list this season.
Pictured above: Aaron Nola
Photo credit: Butch Dill – USA Today Sports
