UFC

UFC Vegas 99 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Hernandez, More Saturday Fights

Much like last week, we have a top-heavy UFC fight night with a main event that would make sense on a pay-per-view main card — with some less interesting fights behind it.

It should be a fun one for DFS though, with an obvious value spot and some exciting high-priced options. The 11-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
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Main Event

Anthony Hernandez ($8,300) vs. Michel Pereira ($7,900)

As mentioned in the intro, we have a fun middleweight main event at the top of the card this weekend. While Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez are ranked outside of the top 10, they’ve each won at least five straight fights, with three straight finishes each.

We’ll start with Pereira, who burst into the scene as a welterweight, notable as much for his acrobatic moves as he was for winning fights. After some difficulty with the scales, he’s now jumped up a weight class and limited (but not stopped) the acrobatics. Since moving to 185, he’s picked up three wins and spent a combined three minutes and one second in the cage.

Hernandez has been just as dominant, if not quite as explosive, as Pereira. An elite grappler, he has 27 takedowns and three finishes in his last four fights. Naturally, that’s led to some massive DFS scores, especially relative to his salary this week.

It’s a step up in competition for both men, with a path to success for either. Hernandez will likely need to overcome Pereira’s 94% takedown defense and get this fight to the ground, while Pereira will need to show he can fight effectively for 25 minutes if he doesn’t blow Hernandez away.

Both have plenty of upside, and it’s a very close fight, so I’ll be stacking this one for cash games. For GPPs, either man’s path to victory should produce slate-winning scores, so I’ll be near, if not at 100% exposure here.

The Easy Chalk

Kyler Phillips ($9,300)

Of the two most expensive fighters on the slate, Phillips seems like the safer option. He’s a significantly heavier moneyline favorite than Robelis Despaigne, with Despaigne having a much higher range of outcomes.

Phillips is 6-1 in the UFC with his only loss a majority decision. Along the way, he’s averaging a solid 5.72 significant strikes per minute and an excellent 2.41 takedowns per 15 minutes. That gives him tons of per-minute upside in his fight against Rob Font ($6,900).

Font is a solid veteran, but at 10-7 in the promotion and 37 years old, he’s certainly on the downswing of his career. He’s been finished just once in his seven losses, and this fight is -185 to go the distance, but given the per-minute upside from Phillips, that might not be the worst thing.

While we aren’t really worried about the floor at this price range, Phillips should also put up some points even if the fight doesn’t go his way, which we can’t say about Despaigne. Both are fine GPP options, but I feel better about Phillips in cash games. It’s also not hard to fit them both, given the obvious value that’s emerged on the slate.

The Upside Play

Robelis Despaigne ($9,400)

I’m interested to see if the field will gravitate to Despaigne again this time around. The massive former Olympic Taekwondo medalist has shown his full range of outcomes through two UFC fights. He needed just 18 seconds to dispatch Josh Parisian in his debut but lost a boring decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, scoring just 11 DraftKings points in his sophomore outing.

The fight with Austen Lane ($6,800) could go in either direction. The former NFL player is 0-2 in the UFC, with a pair of losses to converted strikers. However, he also scored a ground-and-pound victory on the Contender Series before joining the UFC.

He’ll need to grapple against Despaigne, and Lane has no formal grappling background. That explains the -340 odds on Despiagine, who’s also -150 to win in the first round.

Given the price tags at play, you almost have to roster Lane if fading Despaigne. It’s hard to see Despaigne winning with anything except a quick knockout, and any win from Lane at $6,800 gets him in the optimal. I’ll have plenty of both fighters myself, but way more of the favorite, given the value available on the slate.

The Value Play

Jake Hadley ($7,700)

Jake Hadley is priced at $7,700 due to his underdog odds against his original opponent, Brady Hiestand. Hiestand was forced to withdraw from the fight, with Cameron Smotherman ($TBD) stepping in instead.

This will be the UFC debut for Smotherman, who appeared on the Contender Series in 2023 but got knocked out in a minute. To his credit, he’s won three straight since — but that’s still not a great sign.

Hadley is now a -520 favorite, making him a must for cash games. GPPs require a bit more nuance since Hadley will have massive ownership and somewhat limited upside. I considered Hadley for the “Easy Chalk” section since he’ll almost certainly lead the slate in ownership, but he fits the spirit of a value play better.

Similar to the Despaigne pick, rosters without Hadley should almost certainly include Smotherman. Depending on what salary DraftKings sets for him, their combined price tags will likely be about $1,000 lower than we typically see for opponents. Whoever wins thus becomes a huge value.

The Contrarian Choice

Sumudaerji ($7,400)

Sumudaerji is my favorite underdog on the slate this week, thanks to the way he matches up with Charles Johnson ($8,800). Johnson has been on a tear this year, with three wins since February after losing all three of his 2023 fights.

Sumudaerji is 3-3 in the UFC, with all three of those losses coming via submission. “The Tibetan Eagle” is a powerful striker with massive grappling deficiencies — which are unlikely to be exploited by Johnson.

Johnson scored takedowns in just two of his nine promotional appearances, and both of those came when his opponent started grappling first. Sumudaerji won’t be doing that, so this is likely to be an all striking affair.

Which benefits the underdog, and he’s at worst a toss up to win a striking fight thanks to his power and efficient striking. Sumudaerji is a high-floor play at worst, with the power to provide plenty of upside.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Daniel Pineda ($8,200) vs. Darren Elkins ($8,000)

Only three of the 11 fights this week are favored to end inside the distance. One of those is the five round main event, one is Despaigne vs. Lane — and the other is Daniel Pineda and Darren Elkins.

This fight is another example of the UFC’s informal “master’s division” for older fighters who are unlikely to contend for anything meaningful but can still put on fun fights. Elkins is 40 and Pineda is 39, and neither are known for their defensive acumen.

This fight is essentially a pick ’em in the betting markets and it’s hard to trust either fighter. I have no strong feelings on either side myself. I do know I’ll want heavy exposure to this one though, given the relative lack of finishes expected on the card as a whole.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Paris DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Gane vs. Spivac, More Saturday Fights UFC 293 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Strickland, More Saturday Fights UFC 295 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Prozchaka and Aspinall vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights

Much like last week, we have a top-heavy UFC fight night with a main event that would make sense on a pay-per-view main card — with some less interesting fights behind it.

It should be a fun one for DFS though, with an obvious value spot and some exciting high-priced options. The 11-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Anthony Hernandez ($8,300) vs. Michel Pereira ($7,900)

As mentioned in the intro, we have a fun middleweight main event at the top of the card this weekend. While Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez are ranked outside of the top 10, they’ve each won at least five straight fights, with three straight finishes each.

We’ll start with Pereira, who burst into the scene as a welterweight, notable as much for his acrobatic moves as he was for winning fights. After some difficulty with the scales, he’s now jumped up a weight class and limited (but not stopped) the acrobatics. Since moving to 185, he’s picked up three wins and spent a combined three minutes and one second in the cage.

Hernandez has been just as dominant, if not quite as explosive, as Pereira. An elite grappler, he has 27 takedowns and three finishes in his last four fights. Naturally, that’s led to some massive DFS scores, especially relative to his salary this week.

It’s a step up in competition for both men, with a path to success for either. Hernandez will likely need to overcome Pereira’s 94% takedown defense and get this fight to the ground, while Pereira will need to show he can fight effectively for 25 minutes if he doesn’t blow Hernandez away.

Both have plenty of upside, and it’s a very close fight, so I’ll be stacking this one for cash games. For GPPs, either man’s path to victory should produce slate-winning scores, so I’ll be near, if not at 100% exposure here.

The Easy Chalk

Kyler Phillips ($9,300)

Of the two most expensive fighters on the slate, Phillips seems like the safer option. He’s a significantly heavier moneyline favorite than Robelis Despaigne, with Despaigne having a much higher range of outcomes.

Phillips is 6-1 in the UFC with his only loss a majority decision. Along the way, he’s averaging a solid 5.72 significant strikes per minute and an excellent 2.41 takedowns per 15 minutes. That gives him tons of per-minute upside in his fight against Rob Font ($6,900).

Font is a solid veteran, but at 10-7 in the promotion and 37 years old, he’s certainly on the downswing of his career. He’s been finished just once in his seven losses, and this fight is -185 to go the distance, but given the per-minute upside from Phillips, that might not be the worst thing.

While we aren’t really worried about the floor at this price range, Phillips should also put up some points even if the fight doesn’t go his way, which we can’t say about Despaigne. Both are fine GPP options, but I feel better about Phillips in cash games. It’s also not hard to fit them both, given the obvious value that’s emerged on the slate.

The Upside Play

Robelis Despaigne ($9,400)

I’m interested to see if the field will gravitate to Despaigne again this time around. The massive former Olympic Taekwondo medalist has shown his full range of outcomes through two UFC fights. He needed just 18 seconds to dispatch Josh Parisian in his debut but lost a boring decision to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, scoring just 11 DraftKings points in his sophomore outing.

The fight with Austen Lane ($6,800) could go in either direction. The former NFL player is 0-2 in the UFC, with a pair of losses to converted strikers. However, he also scored a ground-and-pound victory on the Contender Series before joining the UFC.

He’ll need to grapple against Despaigne, and Lane has no formal grappling background. That explains the -340 odds on Despiagine, who’s also -150 to win in the first round.

Given the price tags at play, you almost have to roster Lane if fading Despaigne. It’s hard to see Despaigne winning with anything except a quick knockout, and any win from Lane at $6,800 gets him in the optimal. I’ll have plenty of both fighters myself, but way more of the favorite, given the value available on the slate.

The Value Play

Jake Hadley ($7,700)

Jake Hadley is priced at $7,700 due to his underdog odds against his original opponent, Brady Hiestand. Hiestand was forced to withdraw from the fight, with Cameron Smotherman ($TBD) stepping in instead.

This will be the UFC debut for Smotherman, who appeared on the Contender Series in 2023 but got knocked out in a minute. To his credit, he’s won three straight since — but that’s still not a great sign.

Hadley is now a -520 favorite, making him a must for cash games. GPPs require a bit more nuance since Hadley will have massive ownership and somewhat limited upside. I considered Hadley for the “Easy Chalk” section since he’ll almost certainly lead the slate in ownership, but he fits the spirit of a value play better.

Similar to the Despaigne pick, rosters without Hadley should almost certainly include Smotherman. Depending on what salary DraftKings sets for him, their combined price tags will likely be about $1,000 lower than we typically see for opponents. Whoever wins thus becomes a huge value.

The Contrarian Choice

Sumudaerji ($7,400)

Sumudaerji is my favorite underdog on the slate this week, thanks to the way he matches up with Charles Johnson ($8,800). Johnson has been on a tear this year, with three wins since February after losing all three of his 2023 fights.

Sumudaerji is 3-3 in the UFC, with all three of those losses coming via submission. “The Tibetan Eagle” is a powerful striker with massive grappling deficiencies — which are unlikely to be exploited by Johnson.

Johnson scored takedowns in just two of his nine promotional appearances, and both of those came when his opponent started grappling first. Sumudaerji won’t be doing that, so this is likely to be an all striking affair.

Which benefits the underdog, and he’s at worst a toss up to win a striking fight thanks to his power and efficient striking. Sumudaerji is a high-floor play at worst, with the power to provide plenty of upside.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Daniel Pineda ($8,200) vs. Darren Elkins ($8,000)

Only three of the 11 fights this week are favored to end inside the distance. One of those is the five round main event, one is Despaigne vs. Lane — and the other is Daniel Pineda and Darren Elkins.

This fight is another example of the UFC’s informal “master’s division” for older fighters who are unlikely to contend for anything meaningful but can still put on fun fights. Elkins is 40 and Pineda is 39, and neither are known for their defensive acumen.

This fight is essentially a pick ’em in the betting markets and it’s hard to trust either fighter. I have no strong feelings on either side myself. I do know I’ll want heavy exposure to this one though, given the relative lack of finishes expected on the card as a whole.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights UFC Paris DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Gane vs. Spivac, More Saturday Fights UFC 293 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Strickland, More Saturday Fights UFC 295 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Pereira vs. Prozchaka and Aspinall vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.