We’re back in Las Vegas for UFC Vegas 98 from the Apex Center. We’ve got a fantastic main event between former flyweight title challenger Brandon Royval and fast-rising prospect Tatsuro Taira — and not much else to get excited about.
There are 13 fights on the card, starting at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Tatsuro Taira ($9,000) vs. Brandon Royval ($7,200)
The UFC flyweight division is desperately in need of contenders, as the current champion (Alejandre Pantoja) has multiple wins over each of the two highest-ranked challengers — one of those being Royval.
Taira could be just that contender, assuming he can get through Royval. Taira has a chance to be the first UFC champion born in the 2000s, as well as the first Japanese-born champion in many years, but he needs to get through this test first.
The 24-year-old grappling ace is 6-0 in the UFC and has shown continuously improving striking to go along with his elite submission game. This is his second main event, but he picked up a second-round stoppage the last time out.
I mention that because cardio might be the biggest — if not only — edge for Royval here. Not only does “Raw Dog” train at elevation but he’s gone a full 25 minutes in each of his last two fights.
That gives me some fringe interest in Royval for tournaments, but Taira is the much better overall play. I’m not super excited to stack this for cash games, but the lack of strong, cheaper options might make it a necessity.
The Easy Chalk
Grant Dawson ($9,500)
This isn’t the easiest slate to find the salary for an expensive option like Dawson. However, that might make it the most worthwhile. Especially considering Dawson’s style.
He’s a relentless wrestler who averages over three takedowns per 15 minutes and 88 DraftKings points per contest. He’s also a -450 favorite against Rafa Garcia ($6,700), the best odds on the card. Typically I wouldn’t be willing to spend this much considering this fights odds (+165) to end by finish. Dawson’s wrestling is an exception though.
Assuming this one meets the market’s expectations and he looks like a heavy favorite, Dawson should put up a big score either way. An early stoppage would be nice, but if the fight gets extended, that’s just more time for him to pile up takedowns.
Garcia is also a solid grappler, which might produce the sweet spot for DFS: not good enough to stop takedowns, but good enough to get back to the feet. That’s the dream scenario, but at worst, Dawson is a solid bet for 85+ points on DraftKings.
The Upside Play
Cody Haddon ($8,700)
The latest in the unceasing line of Australian MMA prospects to enter the Octagon is Cody Haddon. The flyweight appeared on Week 2 of the Contender Series in August, picking up a first-round finish.
He’s finished all seven of his victories, and his only career loss was a decision against future UFC flyweight title challenger Steve Erceg in 2021. I was high on Haddon coming into his DWCS appearance and I remain so now.
He’s arguably getting a step down in competition against Dan Argueta ($7,500), who is officially 1-2 in the UFC with two no-contests. One of those was going his way. The other was originally a loss that was later overturned.
Regardless, Argueta is a low-to-mid-level UFC fighter, whereas Haddon might be a future star. This might be the best combination of price and matchup we get on Haddon for a long time, so jump on it while you can.
The Value Play
Cory McKenna ($7,900)
As I mentioned in my main event write-up, there’s not a ton of value to be found on this card. The fight likeliest to go the distance is the strawweight bout between McKenna and Julia Polastri ($8,300), with +275 odds to end early.
Of course, McKenna isn’t all that cheap at $7,900, though she’s seen some slight moneyline movement in her direction. That makes her a tad underpriced, plus the obvious floor implied by a fight that’s likely to last all 15 minutes.
Both McKenna and Polastri are likely to look for takedowns at some point, which further raises their floor if they can land them. I’m not especially excited to click McKenna here — and will be avoiding this fight for GPPs — but we need to save salary somewhere in cash games.
The Contrarian Choice
Pat Sabatini ($8,000)
I’ve been on Sabatini all week, highlighting him as an early bet in my UFC Luck Ratings article. Strangely, the betting market has gone the other way, with Sabatini now moving to a +150 underdog.
That obviously makes him overpriced for his (market-implied) win odds, which will certainly suppress his ownership. I’m not buying into the movement, though. Sabatini matches up very well against Jonathan Pearce ($8,200), and I’d make Sabatini the rightful favorite here.
Pearce is a pure wrestler, averaging over five takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC. Sabatini was a D-1 wrestler himself but is also an accomplished submission grappler. He’s a black belt under Daniel Gracie and regularly competes in pro grappling events.
Where Sabatini struggles is against aggressive strikers, with first round knockout losses to Damon Jackson and Diego Lopes. Pearce has never scored a knockdown in the UFC. That removes the big risk from Sabatini, while Pearce is likely to engage him on the ground where Sabatini is most comfortable.
I’ve let the market action scare me from Sabatini in cash games, but he’ll be a huge part of my GPP strategy this week.
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The Swing Fight
Abdul Razak-Alhassan ($8,400) vs. Josh Fremd ($7,800)
Only two fights on this card are lined at -200 or better to end inside the distance (with a likely third once lines come out for the replacement heavyweight bout). Of those, the closer lines/salaries are on the middleweight bout between Abdul “Judo Thunder” Razak-Alhassan and Josh Fremd.
Despite his nickname and background, “Judo Thunder” has exclusively won by knockout in the UFC, rarely attempting to grapple. Fremd is less of a finisher, but he’s a big middleweight who could easily catch the somewhat sloppy Alhassan if the favorite gets too wild in the striking exchanges.
This isn’t exactly a high-level UFC fight, but both men have a path to a quick finish, making it worth including in a big chunk of your GPP lineups.
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