UFC

UFC Vegas 97 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Brady vs. Burns, More Saturday Fights

After a rare off week, the UFC returns on Saturday with UFC Vegas 97. The main event features long-time welterweight standout Gilbert Burns taking on Sean Brady, who’s 6-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to the current champion.

The 12-fight cards kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET, so be sure to have your lineups in order early.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

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Real-time DFS models & projections

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Main Event

Sean Brady ($8,700) vs. Gilbert Burns ($7,500)

Both fighters in the main event are ranked in the UFC’s top 10, but they’re at very different stages in their careers. Burns is a former title challenger who’s lost his last two fights, while Brady is still on the come up with a 6-1 UFC record. It’s not ideal (for Brady) that his loss came to the current champ, but he’ll still be on the fringes of title contention with a win.

This should be a reasonably competitive fight with plenty of upside for DFS. Both men are mostly known as grapplers, and they average over five takedowns per 15 minutes combined. I could see takedowns coming both ways in this one, with nobody settling a position for too long.

Neither fighter brings a ton of volume or power in the striking department, so we’ll be relying on grappling to pay off their salaries for DFS. At the same time, I don’t see either fighter pulling off a win without landing takedowns, so it’s a fairly safe bet the winner ends up in the optimal lineup.

This is a close enough fight (Brady is around -185 betting odds) that I’ll be stacking both in cash games while mixing and matching in GPPs. I plan on leaning a bit toward Brady, who is projecting lower ownership, but the upside is there for both men.

The Easy Chalk

Isaac Dulgarian ($9,900)

It feels like once a month we have a new challenger for the heaviest favorite ever in a UFC fight, and this time, it’s Isaac Dulgarian in his fight against Brendon Marotte ($6,300). Dulgarian is a -2400 favorite on DraftKings as of Friday morning, with even heavier odds elsewhere.

Of course, with Dulgarian’s salary $500 higher than the next most expensive fighter, simply winning isn’t enough. Fortunately, all six of Dulgarian’s career wins have been in the first round, and he’s a moderate favorite to pick up another first-round stoppage.

I’ll be making it a priority to find the salary for Dulgarian in cash games, where he’s clearly a very safe pick. GPPs are a bit trickier, though, as any of the other $9,000 fighters coming close to his score probably bumps Dulgarian off the optimal lineup.

Coupled with his likely massive ownership, I’ll probably end up under the field on “The Midwest Choppa” for tournaments. This isn’t to say that he’s a bad play, just that the salary gap is a bit too wide for my tastes.

The Upside Play

Andre Petroski ($9,300)

I went back and forth between Petroski and Cody Durden ($9,400) for this section, as both have a fairly similar thesis. They’re heavy grapplers with solid moneyline odds who could keep pace with Dulgarian based on takedown volume.

I slightly prefer Petroski of the two, though. Durden is taking the fight on fairly short notice and might not have the gas tank for his typical relentless takedown attempts. Petroski averages slightly fewer takedowns/15 minutes than Durden but has had a full camp to prepare.

This is also a big step down in competition for Petroski, who suffered consecutive losses to veterans Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun before turning it around in a boring decision win over Josh Fremd. For some reason, he’s taking on Dylanb Budka ($6,900), who’s 0-1 in the UFC with a KO loss.

Petroski likely needs a stoppage and some takedowns to surpass Dulgarian score-wise, but given the criticism he faced for having a boring fight last time out, I expect him to be more aggressive here. I’ll be overweight on both Petroski and Durden for GPPs, but especially Petroski.

The Value Play

Felipe dos Santos ($7,700)

There hasn’t been much line movement towards any of the underdogs on Saturday’s card, with Felipe dos Santos as one of the few examples. His betting line was around +154 when DraftKings posted salaries but has since moved to +142.

Plus, his fight has the best odds on the slate to go all three rounds, which gives dos Santos a solid floor against Andre Lima ($8,500). Their flyweight bout should be a fairly competitive striking affair, with both men preferring to keep things standing.

That’s not ideal from an upside standpoint. However, not getting stuck in the bottom position for extended periods means dos Santos should continue to score points throughout the fight. He’s also the likelier fighter in this matchup to land takedowns, as Lima is a former kickboxer.

Most of my interest in dos Santos is for cash games. With that said, I’ll have a sprinkle of him in GPPs in case he does decide to grapple, since it doesn’t take much to pay off his salary.

The Contrarian Choice

Natalia Silva ($9,000)

Given the salary and popularity of Dulgarian, I’m anticipating lower ownership on the rest of the $9,000 range fighters. The two least popular will likely be Silva and Petroski, making them both interesting for GPPs.

Silva is taking on Jessica Andrade ($7,200) in the co-main event. Like the main event, it’s a pairing of a divisional stalwart (Andrade) with an up-and-coming prospect (Silva.) Silva is 5-0 in the UFC with two finishes and better than -300 moneyline odds.

Silva’s path to paying off her salary is a bit tricky, as she’s landed just two takedowns in the UFC. However, she’s shown big power at times in her career. Crucially, Andrade’s “kill or be killed” style is a big factor. The former champion has seen the judges just once in her last five fights and has been finished in eight of her ten UFC losses.

Plus, Andrade is returning to flyweight after fighting at strawweight for the last couple of years. Silva should have a considerable size advantage, which boosts her odds of a finish.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Steve Garcia ($8,600) vs. Kyle Nelson ($7,600)

This fight came together on short notice, as Nelson was originally booked against Calvin Kattar. More importantly, it’s -700 to end inside the distance. That’s the second-best odds on the slate, making this a fight worth paying attention to.

Garcia comes in with a four-fight winning streak, all via knockout. With a full training camp, I’d be fairly confident in his ability to continue that streak, but it’s a bit trickier on short notice. Nelson has won his last three, with a knockout victory over Bill Algeo back in March.

Both men also mix in some takedowns, averaging a bit over one per 15 minutes. That makes this a near-perfect DFS fight, with power and grappling upside from both fighters.

I’m still leaning towards the favored Garcia, mainly due to the (lack of) defense of Nelson. He’s absorbed 4.69 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon. He’s been able to overcome that against less powerful opponents, but that’s a dangerous game to play with Garcia.

I’ll roster some Nelson too, though. If this fight extends beyond the first round, he should be able to take over with cardio.

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After a rare off week, the UFC returns on Saturday with UFC Vegas 97. The main event features long-time welterweight standout Gilbert Burns taking on Sean Brady, who’s 6-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to the current champion.

The 12-fight cards kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET, so be sure to have your lineups in order early.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Sean Brady ($8,700) vs. Gilbert Burns ($7,500)

Both fighters in the main event are ranked in the UFC’s top 10, but they’re at very different stages in their careers. Burns is a former title challenger who’s lost his last two fights, while Brady is still on the come up with a 6-1 UFC record. It’s not ideal (for Brady) that his loss came to the current champ, but he’ll still be on the fringes of title contention with a win.

This should be a reasonably competitive fight with plenty of upside for DFS. Both men are mostly known as grapplers, and they average over five takedowns per 15 minutes combined. I could see takedowns coming both ways in this one, with nobody settling a position for too long.

Neither fighter brings a ton of volume or power in the striking department, so we’ll be relying on grappling to pay off their salaries for DFS. At the same time, I don’t see either fighter pulling off a win without landing takedowns, so it’s a fairly safe bet the winner ends up in the optimal lineup.

This is a close enough fight (Brady is around -185 betting odds) that I’ll be stacking both in cash games while mixing and matching in GPPs. I plan on leaning a bit toward Brady, who is projecting lower ownership, but the upside is there for both men.

The Easy Chalk

Isaac Dulgarian ($9,900)

It feels like once a month we have a new challenger for the heaviest favorite ever in a UFC fight, and this time, it’s Isaac Dulgarian in his fight against Brendon Marotte ($6,300). Dulgarian is a -2400 favorite on DraftKings as of Friday morning, with even heavier odds elsewhere.

Of course, with Dulgarian’s salary $500 higher than the next most expensive fighter, simply winning isn’t enough. Fortunately, all six of Dulgarian’s career wins have been in the first round, and he’s a moderate favorite to pick up another first-round stoppage.

I’ll be making it a priority to find the salary for Dulgarian in cash games, where he’s clearly a very safe pick. GPPs are a bit trickier, though, as any of the other $9,000 fighters coming close to his score probably bumps Dulgarian off the optimal lineup.

Coupled with his likely massive ownership, I’ll probably end up under the field on “The Midwest Choppa” for tournaments. This isn’t to say that he’s a bad play, just that the salary gap is a bit too wide for my tastes.

The Upside Play

Andre Petroski ($9,300)

I went back and forth between Petroski and Cody Durden ($9,400) for this section, as both have a fairly similar thesis. They’re heavy grapplers with solid moneyline odds who could keep pace with Dulgarian based on takedown volume.

I slightly prefer Petroski of the two, though. Durden is taking the fight on fairly short notice and might not have the gas tank for his typical relentless takedown attempts. Petroski averages slightly fewer takedowns/15 minutes than Durden but has had a full camp to prepare.

This is also a big step down in competition for Petroski, who suffered consecutive losses to veterans Michel Pereira and Jacob Malkoun before turning it around in a boring decision win over Josh Fremd. For some reason, he’s taking on Dylanb Budka ($6,900), who’s 0-1 in the UFC with a KO loss.

Petroski likely needs a stoppage and some takedowns to surpass Dulgarian score-wise, but given the criticism he faced for having a boring fight last time out, I expect him to be more aggressive here. I’ll be overweight on both Petroski and Durden for GPPs, but especially Petroski.

The Value Play

Felipe dos Santos ($7,700)

There hasn’t been much line movement towards any of the underdogs on Saturday’s card, with Felipe dos Santos as one of the few examples. His betting line was around +154 when DraftKings posted salaries but has since moved to +142.

Plus, his fight has the best odds on the slate to go all three rounds, which gives dos Santos a solid floor against Andre Lima ($8,500). Their flyweight bout should be a fairly competitive striking affair, with both men preferring to keep things standing.

That’s not ideal from an upside standpoint. However, not getting stuck in the bottom position for extended periods means dos Santos should continue to score points throughout the fight. He’s also the likelier fighter in this matchup to land takedowns, as Lima is a former kickboxer.

Most of my interest in dos Santos is for cash games. With that said, I’ll have a sprinkle of him in GPPs in case he does decide to grapple, since it doesn’t take much to pay off his salary.

The Contrarian Choice

Natalia Silva ($9,000)

Given the salary and popularity of Dulgarian, I’m anticipating lower ownership on the rest of the $9,000 range fighters. The two least popular will likely be Silva and Petroski, making them both interesting for GPPs.

Silva is taking on Jessica Andrade ($7,200) in the co-main event. Like the main event, it’s a pairing of a divisional stalwart (Andrade) with an up-and-coming prospect (Silva.) Silva is 5-0 in the UFC with two finishes and better than -300 moneyline odds.

Silva’s path to paying off her salary is a bit tricky, as she’s landed just two takedowns in the UFC. However, she’s shown big power at times in her career. Crucially, Andrade’s “kill or be killed” style is a big factor. The former champion has seen the judges just once in her last five fights and has been finished in eight of her ten UFC losses.

Plus, Andrade is returning to flyweight after fighting at strawweight for the last couple of years. Silva should have a considerable size advantage, which boosts her odds of a finish.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Steve Garcia ($8,600) vs. Kyle Nelson ($7,600)

This fight came together on short notice, as Nelson was originally booked against Calvin Kattar. More importantly, it’s -700 to end inside the distance. That’s the second-best odds on the slate, making this a fight worth paying attention to.

Garcia comes in with a four-fight winning streak, all via knockout. With a full training camp, I’d be fairly confident in his ability to continue that streak, but it’s a bit trickier on short notice. Nelson has won his last three, with a knockout victory over Bill Algeo back in March.

Both men also mix in some takedowns, averaging a bit over one per 15 minutes. That makes this a near-perfect DFS fight, with power and grappling upside from both fighters.

I’m still leaning towards the favored Garcia, mainly due to the (lack of) defense of Nelson. He’s absorbed 4.69 significant strikes per minute in the Octagon. He’s been able to overcome that against less powerful opponents, but that’s a dangerous game to play with Garcia.

I’ll roster some Nelson too, though. If this fight extends beyond the first round, he should be able to take over with cardio.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC Vegas 70 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Spann vs. Krylov, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 71 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blaydes vs. Pavlovich, More Saturday Fights UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights UFC St. Louis DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lewis vs. Nascimento, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.