UFC

UFC Vegas 96 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Borralho vs. Cannonier, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Aug 23, 2024

We’ve got a solid main event as far as Apex cards go, with 6-0 rising contender Caio Borralho taking on former title challenger Jared Cannonier. Elsewhere on the card, we have the finales of the latest season of The Ultimate Fighter. All in all, it’s a 12-fight card with a 7:00 p.m. ET start time.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Caio Borralho ($8,600) vs. Jared Cannonier ($7,600)

Since losing his shot at the middleweight title in 2022, Jared Cannonier has become the measuring stick against which hopeful title contenders are judged. He holds wins over Sean Strickland (by split decision) and Marvin Vettori but was recently stopped in the fourth round by Nassourdine Imavov.

Now 40 years old, he draws fast-rising Caio Borralho, who’s 6-0 in the UFC, with two additional wins on the Contender Series. The leader of the “Fighting Nerds” training camp, Borralho, is an exciting prospect who can do it all. He was a national Judo champion in Brazil, holds a BJJ black belt, and has shown impressive striking in recent fights.

This fight is expected to be more of a showcase fight for “The Natural” than a truly competitive affair, with the Brazilian opening at around -200 odds but moving to -250 by Friday. That makes him a fairly safe pick relative to his price point, with solid upside as well.

With the fight essentially even money to hit 4.5 rounds, it makes sense to stack for cash games. For GPPs, I’m loading up on the favorite, though, as I think he’ll easily cover his price tag.

The Easy Chalk

Zach Reese ($9,200)

The three most expensive fighters on the slate are all at least -500 favorites, with Reese bringing up the rear of that group with his -585 odds. However, he’s also the cheapest of the bunch, and his fight has the best odds to be ended inside the distance.

That’s an important detail with fighters in this price range, as it’s fairly difficult to pay off a $9K+ salary in a (three-round) decision. Reese is -340 to win by finish over Jose Medina ($7,000), a former DWCS competitor who lost his matchup on the show.

Reese is also an extremely fast worker, with all seven of his career wins coming inside the first round. Four of those (including his UFC win in June) were also inside the first minute. That’s not a coincidence, as he’s a hyper-aggressive fighter who comes out guns blazing.

There’s some risk to Medina weathering the early storm and taking Reese into unfamiliar territory, but it’s relatively minimal. He has the best mix of upside and safety relative to his salary on the slate.

The Upside Play

Robert Valentin ($8,400)

Robert Valentin faces Ryan Loder ($7,800) in the middleweight championship fight for The Ultimate Fighter season 32. It’s important not to draw too many conclusions based on fighters’ performances on the show, as the reality TV environment is a big departure from a typical fight camp and schedule.

With that said, Valentin was about as impressive as one could be in the competition. He picked up first-round wins in both of his fights in the competition. Valentin lives and trains in Thailand and showed off his Muay Thai with a standing elbow knockout in the first while representing his Judo background well with a submission in the second fight.

Loder has a strong wrestling background, but Valntin’s submission skills should serve as a strong deterrent. Valentin is fairly clearly the better striker as well. He’s seen a bit of line movement his way throughout the week, with close to even (+140) odds to get a finish. I’ll probably stay away from both TUF finale fights for cash games, but Valentin will be a big part of my GPP builds.

The Value Play

Tabatha Ricci ($8,000)

The co-main event features longtime veteran strawweight Angela Hill ($8,200) taking on Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci.

The case for Ricci as a value is fairly straightforward. She’s now the favorite, with her line moving to -125 on Friday, but priced as an underdog. Ricci also has a solid style for DFS, averaging three takedowns per 15 minutes.

Ricci holds black belts in both Judo and BJJ, having begun grappling training at the age of six. She’s 5-2 in the UFC, with her only losses coming against opponents she failed to take down — Manon Fiorot in Ricci’s debut, which was up a weight class, and wrestling specialist Lupita Godinez.

Hill is somewhat difficult to take down, but her recent losses have come to grappling specialists Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. She’s also more than a decade older than Ricci, which is especially noteworthy in lighter divisions.

Even without picking up a win, Ricci is a solid value thanks to her grappling and this fights strong odds to go all 15 minutes. I’m not sure she has the upside for GPPs, but she’s an excellent cash game play.

The Contrarian Choice

James Llontop ($7,500)

James Llontop is my favorite underdog on the slate this weekend, with a skill set that translates fairly well for DFS. He’s looking to earn his first UFC win against Viacheslav Borshchev ($8.700), better known as “Slava Claus.”

Slava Claus is a fun striker with great boxing but he doesn’t really have the power to make that style work against fellow high-level fighters. He’s lost four of his last five while suffering knockdowns in his last two contests.

That’s especially concerning, given his preferred fighting method and the power of Llontop. Llontop was out-grappled in his UFC debut but scored two knockdowns in his Contender Series fight with a high striking volume and solid defense.

He’s being undervalued by the betting market (and thus his DFS salary) based on his debut, a loss to a last-minute replacement UFC debutant. However, that was due to his opponent’s grappling skills — not a concern with Borshchev. That was also the third potential opponent lined up for Llontop, so I’ll give him a pass on not being prepared with all of the confusion.

A knockout would obviously see him make it to the optimal lineup, but with his volume (4.76 significant strikes per minute), he could get there even in a decision win. I’ll be rostering him in both GPPS and cash games.

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The Swing Fight

Francis Marshall ($8,300) vs. Dennis Buzukja ($7,400)

Sometimes, the “swing fight” is selected because of extremely close salaries. Often, the winning fighter in the $8,200/$8,000 fight makes the optimal lineup, thanks to being one of the cheapest winners on the slate. Other times, it’s a reasonably close fight we expect to end early, but aren’t confident who will get their hand raised.

This is neither of those situations. It’s the swing fight because of the pricing, in that both fighters’ combined salaries add up to only $15,700, $500 cheaper than usual. That’s because Marshall took this fight on short notice, replacing the injured Danny Silva.

Buzukja was a much heavier underdog to Silva but is going off at just +120 or so now. He’s the clear value side of the equation, with Marshall’s price fairly standard relative to his odds of winning.

However, the clear value of Buzukja should make him fairly popular and, by extension, reduce the ownership of Marshall. Both men are 1-2 in the UFC (with wins against the same opponent), so it should be a fairly close fight. The pricing dynamics mean one or both will end up as a strong value, though, so I want plenty of exposure.

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.