UFC

UFC Vegas 95 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Tybura vs. Spivac, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Aug 9, 2024

UFC Vegas 95 is headlined by a main event rematch that nobody asked for, between top-ten heavyweights Serghei Spivac and Marcin Tybura. The big men headline a card that’s down to just ten fights after a handful of cancellations, starting at 5:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Serghei Spivac ($8,300) vs. Marcin Tybura ($7,900)

In one of the last events before the pandemic shut down sports for a period, Marcin Tybura defeated Serghei Spivas 30-27 (x2) 29-28 on the preliminary card of a non-PPV UFC event. A bit over four years later, they’re headlining the card in a rematch.

In fairness, both men have risen through the heavyweight ranks since their last meeting. Tybura is 7-2, with losses to interim champion Tom Aspinall and the No. 3 ranked Alexander Volkov. Spivac is 6-2, with a loss of his own to Aspinall and one to No. 2 ranked Ciryl Gane.

The point is, they’ve had very similar arcs since then, and the winner here jumps to the fringes of the heavyweight title picture.

The stats favor the previous winner in rematches, but they also favor the younger fighter. In this case that’s Spivac, who’s more than nine years the junior of Tybura. That explains his slight favoritism by the markets here — even though the age curve is much less forgiving at heavyweight than lighter classes.

Both men are fairly similar stylistically, with good grappling and solid finish rates. Spivac is more aggressive with his ground and pound, which leads to more opportunities for his opponents to escape, but also more chances to land another takedown.

That makes him the slightly better DFS play here, but it’s a fairly obvious cash game stack on the small 10-fight card. I’ll be slightly heavier on Spivac for GPPs, but I’m not taking a major stance here and will have one or the other in most of my lineups.

The Easy Chalk

Grigoriou Charalampos ($8,800)

Charalampos has the best first-round stoppage odds on the slate at just +225, and he’s a slight favorite (-120) to win his fight inside the distance. That’s enough to make him worth considering, along with his -250 or so moneyline odds.

He’s taking on Toshiomi Kazama ($7,400), who’s 0-2 in the UFC with two knockout losses in less than five minutes of total fight time. Kazama got to the promotion via the Road to the UFC series, highlighting Asian prospects, but has largely built his record against low-level competition.

While Grigoriu is 0-1 for the promotion, it was a decision loss in which he landed four takedowns. With his quick knockout on the Contender Series, he’s flashed both the finishing and takedown abilities we like to target for DFS.

Plus, the market is sending some strong signals about his chances, making him a strong play relative to his salary.

The Upside Play

Danny Barlow ($9,300)

I have Barlow projected just above Grigoriu for the highest median projection on the slate, owing to his extremely aggressive striking style. He’s averaged just under nine significant strikes per minute in his two fights for the UFC/Contender Series, finishing both by knockout.

“LeftHand2God” has moved past -400 at some sportsbooks on the moneyline as he takes on short-notice replacement Nikolay Verretnikov ($6,900). Verretnikov fought on the Contender Series in 2021, losing a decision to Michael Morales.

I’m a little bit worried about Barlow here, though. Verretnikov’s loss to Morales has aged fairly well — Morales is 4-0 in the UFC. Plus, Verretnikov forced the normally striking-focused Morales to score four takedowns in their fight, something that isn’t really in Barlow’s wheelhouse.

Still, the upside potential for Barlow is massive, between his power and activity rate. My uncertainty about his safety has me considering him more for GPPs than cash games, but if the market is to be believed, he’s a solid play all around.

The Value Play

Chris Guttierez ($7,000)

While Danny Barlow got a new opponent just before DraftKings released DFS salaries, Guttierez had his switch shortly after. That’s how he came to be the heaviest favorite on the slate despite just a $4,000 salary.

The Factory X standout is 8-3-1 for the promotion and has as many wins in the UFC as his opponent has professional fights. Where normally we’d at least give Quang Le ($6,700) the youth advantadge, he’s just six months younger than Gutierrez.

It’s extremely hard to pass up on a -500 or so favorite who’s also one of the cheaper fighters on the slate, regardless of ownership projection. If you do, be sure to roster Le in all of your lineups without Gutierrez. It massively increases your leverage, plus their combined salaries are $2,500 cheaper than normal, so almost by definition, one (or both) of them will be solid values.

That also makes stacking them an interesting GPP option, as it wouldn’t take a whole lot of Le to sneak into the optimal lineup at his price point, even in a loss.

The Contrarian Choice

Jhonata Diniz ($7,200)

I’m not sure why Diniz is getting so little love in the betting markets for his fight against Karl Williams ($9,000). Sure, Williams is the slightly more experienced UFC fighter with three wins for the promotion to Diniz’s one. However, the plodding Williams is yet to finish a fight in the Octagon, including on the Contender Series.

This is a stark contrast from Diniz, a former elite-level kickboxer who’s 7-0 in MMA. He’s finished all seven of those fights by knockout, with just one of those escaping the first round.

Sure, it could be a stylistic challenge for Diniz, as Williams has a solid wrestling background. However, every round starts on the feet, and Williams’ lack of finishing upside means Diniz should have a few chances to land a knockout blow.

At his price point, Diniz doesn’t even need to do it early to end up in the optimal lineup. He’s a bit risky for cash games — especially with the massive value on Gutierrez — but an excellent GPP option.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.

The Swing Fight

Stephanie Luciano ($8,500) vs. Talita Alencar ($7,700)

The other rematch on the UFC Vegas 95 card is the opening bout between Brazilian strawweight Stephanie Luciano and Talita Alencar. While it’s not exactly a hotly anticipated match, the previous meeting (on the Contender Series) ended in a draw, making this a logical rebooking.

Alencar is a multiple-time world champion grappler who put those skills to use in the first booking. She landed four takedowns and over six minutes of control time across the first two rounds of their fight — but then went 0-10 on takedown attempts in the third round while completely gassing out.

Luciano is the better all-around fighter, with a background in Muay Thai and much better striking. She’ll have certainly worked on takedown defense since her last meeting with Alencar and will look like a big favorite if she can keep this one standing.

Of course, that’s easier said than done against the constant pressure from Alencar. Those takedowns could lead to a big score for Alencar, while Luciano’s striking edge would do the same on her side.

Binary fights like this typically lead to a solid score for the winner, as one fighter could rack up takedowns while the other could land plenty of strikes. That makes this fight more appealing than the +165 stoppage odds, though not quite “needs to be in every lineup” level.

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.