We’re back to the Apex for UFC Vegas 93, with a flyweight main event between undefeated Tatsuro Taira and former title challenger Alex Perez.
Due to some reshuffling, we’re now down to an 11-fight card starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Tatsuro Taira ($8,600) vs. Alex Perez ($7,600)
It’s been a long time since we had a Japanese MMA superstar, and Tatsuro Taira is leading the new crop of prospects, hoping to change that. After a perfect 10-0 start to his pro career, he jumped to the UFC in 2022, just past his 22nd birthday. With his perfect 5-0 UFC record, he’s now 15-0 as a professional and on the verge of contender status in the flyweight division.
Taira is a true mixed martial artist with dangerous takedowns, an active submission attack, and precise striking. While he’s known as a grappler, he uses striking to set up his takedown entries and the threat of takedowns to enhance his striking.
Which will be important against Alex Perez ($7,600), a former Junior College All-American wrestler. Perez held his own (and arguably won) against a somewhat similar opponent in Mohammed Mokaev back in March by thwarting most of the takedown attempts from Mokaev.
However, Mokaev didn’t disguise his takedowns with striking, giving Perez ample time to reach to his level changes. Taira won’t make that mistake and could arguably win a striking match against Perez.
Given the likely fast pace of this fight and the roughly even-money odds of it hitting the championship rounds, this is a clear stacking for cash games. I may even consider it for GPPs since the smaller card leaves the door open for a losing fighter to end up in the optimal lineup. Most of my lineups will prioritize Taira though, as he’s a solid value with his line moving close to two-to-one.
The Easy Chalk
Assu Almabaev ($9,500)
This card currently features three fighters with odds of -355 or longer, with all three projecting as strong options. The safest of the bunch is probably Almabaev, who isn’t as likely to pick up a quick win but can hit a big score without it.
That’s thanks to his takedown ability. While he has just two UFC appearances, he’s picked up 11 total takedowns, leading to an average of over seven per 15 minutes (he finished one of his two fights midway through the second round).
He’s also taking on an opponent in Jose Johnson ($6,700), who struggles to defend takedowns, with a poor 36% defense rate and 24 takedowns allowed across four fights. The best part of the matchup is Johnson’s ability to return to his feet — which presents opportunities for repeated takedowns from his opponent.
With -210 odds for this fight to end inside the distance, We have a solid chance of Almabaev picking up a stoppage to go with a handful of takedowns. That could be enough to edge out the other heavier favorites, even if they wrap things up a bit more quickly.
The Upside Play
Jeka Saragih ($9,300)
Jeka Saragih has the exact opposite profile as Almabaev, an explosive striker who has the potential to put his opponent down at any point. He has nine knockouts across his 14 professional wins, including three in his UFC-affiliated fights.
He has -165 odds to end this one inside the first round and -200 odds to win by knockout at any point. Those are rare numbers and speak to what oddsmakers think of the matchup with Westin Wilson ($6,900). Wilson has been knocked out twice in his two UFC fights and seems like an opponent hand-picked for Saragih.
The lack of takedowns means Saragih almost certainly needs a first-round stoppage — if not a quick-win bonus — to have a shot at the optimal lineup. However, given how good his odds of pulling that off are, he’s an excellent GPP play and worth considering for cash.
The other option is Nate Manness ($9,400), who has slightly better moneyline odds than Saragih but is less likely to pick up a first-round win. Most lineups on Saturday will probably feature two out of the three heavy favorites.
The Value Play
Julia Polastri ($7,100)
There are two women’s fights on the card, with underdogs in both matchups seeing significant line movement since salaries were released this week. Their fights are also the two likeliest to go to a decision, making both excellent floor plays for cash games.
Polastri is my slight preference over Carli Judice ($7,200), as she’s projecting a bit better while coming in $100 cheaper. I also give her a better chance to pull off the upset, as I outlined in my Luck Ratings piece this week.
She’s taking on Josefine Knuttson ($9,100), a former kickboxer with a 1-0 UFC record. It’s hard to put much stock in that record, though, as it came against a woefully unprepared Marnic Mann.
It’s a close call between the two fighters for cash games, though lineups featuring both allow you to load up on heavy favorites. Betting odds suggest Judice is the better play, but I have more faith in the skillset of Polastri.
On the higher end of the salary scale, Miles Johns ($8,000) has also swung from a slight underdog to a -142 favorite, making him an excellent value play, too.
The Contrarian Choice
Brady Hiestand ($7,500)
With news of my original pick, Josh Van ($7,500), having his fight cancelled, I’m pivoting to Hiestand as my contrarian choice this weekend.
Hiestand has seen the line move against him this week in his fight against Garret Armfield ($8,700), and in some respects I can see why. Hiestand was getting beaten up pretty badly on the feet for most of his last fight against Danaa Batgeraal, but pulled off a late ground and pound finish to steal the win back his way.
That could be viewed as a miracle comeback for a fighter who lost the majority of his fight — or as a fighter with the heart, stamina, and willingness to fight until the bitter end. It’s also a strong indication of his grappling skills, and he has 12 takedowns across three UFC fights.
Which makes him a tough matchup for Armfield, who was taken down four times in his last appearance. Armfield is pretty clearly the better striker here, but that might not matter in the smaller UFC Apex cage.
The line movement against him is also a strong sign his ownership will be low, so I’ll bet on him finding a takedown at some point.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
The Swing Fight
Josh Quinlan ($8,300) vs. Adam Fugitt ($7,900)
I’m surprised oddsmakers aren’t lining this welterweight fight, as more likely to end with a finish. It’s around -185 to end without the aid of the judges, so solidly favored, but I’d make the number much bigger.
That’s due to the style of both fighters. Quinlan absorbs nearly seven significant strikes per minute, with Fugitt at a still-high 5.13. Both are well above the UFC average rate and don’t suggest we’ll see much defense here.
Quinlan also has big power, with knockouts in four of six pro victories and submissions in the other two. Fugitt has been finished in each of his UFC losses, once each by submission and knockout.
Which isn’t to say Fugitt can’t be the one doing the finishing here. He’s around +105 on the moneyline, with finishes in eight of his nine pro wins. He has solid power of his own and is a tricky puzzle to solve, thanks to his five-inch reach edge and southpaw stance.
Both of which suggest he’ll be able to get to Quinlan, as long as his own chin hold sup. Either way, a finish is probable here, with salaries tight enough that a stoppage victory from either fighter should end up in the optimal lineup.
Sean Zerillo and I had similar thoughts (though slightly different conclusions) on this fight, as we touched on in our UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights
UFC Vegas 70 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Spann vs. Krylov, More Saturday Fights
UFC Atlantic City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Fiorot, More Saturday Fights
UFC St. Louis DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Lewis vs. Nascimento, More Saturday Fights
