UFC

UFC Vegas 92 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Murphy vs. Barboza, More Saturday Fights

The UFC heads back to the Apex for one more show before taking the week off for Memorial Day.

The 12-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
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Main Event

Lerone Murphy ($8,500) vs. Edson Barboza ($7,700)

Saturday’s main event features undefeated prospect Lerone Murphy taking on longtime veteran Edson Barboza in a featherweight clash.

Barboza’s first UFC fight came all the way back in 2010, four years before Lerone Murphy first entered the cage as an amateur. He’s one of the most dangerous and technical strikers in the lower weight classes and is known for his exciting fighting style, with 12 performance bonuses in his 29-fight UFC career.

Murphy is 5-0-1 in the Octagon and facing a ranked opponent for the first time. At 32, he’s a bit old to be considered a true prospect, but an impressive victory over Barboza — who’s stopped many fighter’s ascent up the rankings — would see Murphy firmly join the “contender” discussion at 145 lbs.

Normally, I would side heavily with the much younger Barboza, but we’ve seen a handful of older fighters perform well this year, following the UFC’s split with drug testing company USADA. In addition, this is the first five-round fight of Murphy’s career, while Barboza is coming off an impressive comeback victory over five rounds in his last bout.

Barboza has the technical striking edge, while Murphy is the better offensive grappler. What will ultimately decide the fight is whether Murphy has enough of an athletic edge to keep pace with Barboza on the feet while mixing in takedowns and damage on the ground.

I’m stacking this fight in cash games, since both fighters score fairly well on a per-minute basis, and it’s likely to see the championship rounds. For GPPs, I’ll be including both fighters at a roughly equal rate. Murphy is the likely early finisher, giving him more upside, but Barboza doesn’t need a huge score to pay off his lighter salary.

The Easy Chalk

Adrian Yanez ($9,300)

There are three fighters at the top of the salary scale who have excellent moneyline and stoppage odds, but Yanez is probably the safest. After starting his UFC career with five straight wins (four knockouts), he’s on an 0-2 skid against ranked opponents. Now he draws Vinicius Salvador ($6,900), who is 0-2 in the UFC.

The UFC is clearly giving Yanez a bounce-back fight here. Besides his poor record, Salvador is also stepping up from flyweight to bantamweight and will likely have a considerable size and strength defect against the powerful Yanez.

Yanez is better than a four-to-one favorite in a fight that’s -225 to end inside the distance, so he’s fairly likely to pick up a stoppage here. Even if he doesn’t, he averages over six significant strikes per minute, so he should score fairly well in a decision win.

The Upside Play

Tom Nolan ($9,500)

At -500 odds, Nolan is tied with Oumar Sy ($9,600) for the best odds on the slate. Both fighters are winless in the UFC, with Sy making his debut and Nolan 0-1.

However, I feel slightly better about Nolan. He’s roughly even money to win his fight against Victor Martinez ($6,700) inside the first round, and he was undefeated in his pre-UFC career. Martinez is also 0-1 in the Octagon, with a first-round knockout loss in his only appearance.

I also like targeting fighters in lighter weight classes when they have solid stoppage odds. The activity level tends to be much higher for smaller fighters, so they score better per-minute than their larger counterparts. If we add to that a roughly equal chance of ending the fight early, the upside ends up somewhat higher.

Still, you can’t go wrong with Sy instead of Nolan. He’s undefeated and taking on a short-notice opponent in Tuco Tokkos ($6,600) in a fight with similar round props. Deciding between the two (or figuring out how to fit both) will be a major factor in deciding who wins GPPs this week.

The Value Play

Heili Alateng ($7,600)

Alateng is simply too cheap for his moneyline odds this week. I bet him early in the week at +130, and the odds have shifted his direction since then. Even at +130, his $7,600 salary is reasonable, especially considering that this fight is +140 to go to a decision, with both Alateng and Kleydson Rodrigues ($8,600) having identical stoppage odds. Both of those factors make Alateng a strong cash game play, as he’s likelier than not to get a full 15 minutes to work — and 50% of the time he doesn’t it’s because he picked up the finish.

Most of my interest in Alateng this week is based on his opponent. Rodrigues is 1-2 in the UFC, with his only win coming against Shannon Ross in a fight Rodrigues missed weight for. Ross went 0-4 with four knockout losses between the UFC and Contender Series while taking the Rodrigues fight on short notice.

Alateng is 4-2-1 in the promotion while fighting largely tougher competition. I would’ve made him the favorite here, so I’m happy to roster him at an underdog price.

The Contrarian Choice

Ramiz Brahimaj ($7,800)

Brahimaj is returning from an extended layoff to fight Themba Gorimbo ($8,400) in a main card bout. This is a fairly binary fight, with Brahmiaj an excellent grappler and Gorimbo known for his punching power.

Goribmo has struggled against grapplers in his brief UFC career, getting submitted by AJ Dobson in his debut and taken down twice by Takashi Sato in his next fight. Sato landed just one takedown in his six other UFC fights combined.

Coupled with the small cage at the Apex center, that’s a big edge for Brahimaj, who’s earned all ten of his career wins via submission. The power of Gorimbo makes this one a bit scary for cash games, but for GPPs, he’s a strong play at what should be low ownership.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Khaos Williams ($8,200) vs. Carlston Harris ($8,000)

It’s nice when the $8,200/$8,000 fight also has strong stoppage odds. Correctly predicting the closest fight by salary is typically crucial for DFS, as either fighter has a clear path to the optimal lineup with a win. That holds especially true this week, with the fight -250 to end inside the distance.

This is another striker vs. grappler matchup, with Khaos Williams as the striker. He’s landed nearly six significant strikes per minute in the UFC, with three of his five wins coming via knockout. Williams also scored a knockdown (and solid DFS score) in a split decision loss to Randy Brown.

Harris is coming off a come-from-behind victory over Jeremiah Wells, in which he picked up an anaconda choke after being dominated for two and a half rounds. He’s 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to future title challenger Shavkat Rakhmonov.

However, the style of grappling Harris employs has me leaning towards Williams. His best technique is a D’Arce/Anaconda choke, which works by countering opponents’ wrestling. Since Williams is very unlikely to even attempt any grappling, Harris will instead have to rely on his mediocre takedown game.

I expect the takedown defense and athleticism edge for Williams to hold up here, making him my preferred play. However, I’ll have a fair dose of Harris as well, as he could end this fight fast with a takedown. One or the other will be in the bulk of my lineups this week.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 283 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Hill vs. Teixera, More Saturday Fights UFC 284 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Volkanovski vs. Makhachev, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 69 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Andrade, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 90 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Allen vs. Curtis, More Saturday Fights

The UFC heads back to the Apex for one more show before taking the week off for Memorial Day.

The 12-fight card locks at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Lerone Murphy ($8,500) vs. Edson Barboza ($7,700)

Saturday’s main event features undefeated prospect Lerone Murphy taking on longtime veteran Edson Barboza in a featherweight clash.

Barboza’s first UFC fight came all the way back in 2010, four years before Lerone Murphy first entered the cage as an amateur. He’s one of the most dangerous and technical strikers in the lower weight classes and is known for his exciting fighting style, with 12 performance bonuses in his 29-fight UFC career.

Murphy is 5-0-1 in the Octagon and facing a ranked opponent for the first time. At 32, he’s a bit old to be considered a true prospect, but an impressive victory over Barboza — who’s stopped many fighter’s ascent up the rankings — would see Murphy firmly join the “contender” discussion at 145 lbs.

Normally, I would side heavily with the much younger Barboza, but we’ve seen a handful of older fighters perform well this year, following the UFC’s split with drug testing company USADA. In addition, this is the first five-round fight of Murphy’s career, while Barboza is coming off an impressive comeback victory over five rounds in his last bout.

Barboza has the technical striking edge, while Murphy is the better offensive grappler. What will ultimately decide the fight is whether Murphy has enough of an athletic edge to keep pace with Barboza on the feet while mixing in takedowns and damage on the ground.

I’m stacking this fight in cash games, since both fighters score fairly well on a per-minute basis, and it’s likely to see the championship rounds. For GPPs, I’ll be including both fighters at a roughly equal rate. Murphy is the likely early finisher, giving him more upside, but Barboza doesn’t need a huge score to pay off his lighter salary.

The Easy Chalk

Adrian Yanez ($9,300)

There are three fighters at the top of the salary scale who have excellent moneyline and stoppage odds, but Yanez is probably the safest. After starting his UFC career with five straight wins (four knockouts), he’s on an 0-2 skid against ranked opponents. Now he draws Vinicius Salvador ($6,900), who is 0-2 in the UFC.

The UFC is clearly giving Yanez a bounce-back fight here. Besides his poor record, Salvador is also stepping up from flyweight to bantamweight and will likely have a considerable size and strength defect against the powerful Yanez.

Yanez is better than a four-to-one favorite in a fight that’s -225 to end inside the distance, so he’s fairly likely to pick up a stoppage here. Even if he doesn’t, he averages over six significant strikes per minute, so he should score fairly well in a decision win.

The Upside Play

Tom Nolan ($9,500)

At -500 odds, Nolan is tied with Oumar Sy ($9,600) for the best odds on the slate. Both fighters are winless in the UFC, with Sy making his debut and Nolan 0-1.

However, I feel slightly better about Nolan. He’s roughly even money to win his fight against Victor Martinez ($6,700) inside the first round, and he was undefeated in his pre-UFC career. Martinez is also 0-1 in the Octagon, with a first-round knockout loss in his only appearance.

I also like targeting fighters in lighter weight classes when they have solid stoppage odds. The activity level tends to be much higher for smaller fighters, so they score better per-minute than their larger counterparts. If we add to that a roughly equal chance of ending the fight early, the upside ends up somewhat higher.

Still, you can’t go wrong with Sy instead of Nolan. He’s undefeated and taking on a short-notice opponent in Tuco Tokkos ($6,600) in a fight with similar round props. Deciding between the two (or figuring out how to fit both) will be a major factor in deciding who wins GPPs this week.

The Value Play

Heili Alateng ($7,600)

Alateng is simply too cheap for his moneyline odds this week. I bet him early in the week at +130, and the odds have shifted his direction since then. Even at +130, his $7,600 salary is reasonable, especially considering that this fight is +140 to go to a decision, with both Alateng and Kleydson Rodrigues ($8,600) having identical stoppage odds. Both of those factors make Alateng a strong cash game play, as he’s likelier than not to get a full 15 minutes to work — and 50% of the time he doesn’t it’s because he picked up the finish.

Most of my interest in Alateng this week is based on his opponent. Rodrigues is 1-2 in the UFC, with his only win coming against Shannon Ross in a fight Rodrigues missed weight for. Ross went 0-4 with four knockout losses between the UFC and Contender Series while taking the Rodrigues fight on short notice.

Alateng is 4-2-1 in the promotion while fighting largely tougher competition. I would’ve made him the favorite here, so I’m happy to roster him at an underdog price.

The Contrarian Choice

Ramiz Brahimaj ($7,800)

Brahimaj is returning from an extended layoff to fight Themba Gorimbo ($8,400) in a main card bout. This is a fairly binary fight, with Brahmiaj an excellent grappler and Gorimbo known for his punching power.

Goribmo has struggled against grapplers in his brief UFC career, getting submitted by AJ Dobson in his debut and taken down twice by Takashi Sato in his next fight. Sato landed just one takedown in his six other UFC fights combined.

Coupled with the small cage at the Apex center, that’s a big edge for Brahimaj, who’s earned all ten of his career wins via submission. The power of Gorimbo makes this one a bit scary for cash games, but for GPPs, he’s a strong play at what should be low ownership.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Khaos Williams ($8,200) vs. Carlston Harris ($8,000)

It’s nice when the $8,200/$8,000 fight also has strong stoppage odds. Correctly predicting the closest fight by salary is typically crucial for DFS, as either fighter has a clear path to the optimal lineup with a win. That holds especially true this week, with the fight -250 to end inside the distance.

This is another striker vs. grappler matchup, with Khaos Williams as the striker. He’s landed nearly six significant strikes per minute in the UFC, with three of his five wins coming via knockout. Williams also scored a knockdown (and solid DFS score) in a split decision loss to Randy Brown.

Harris is coming off a come-from-behind victory over Jeremiah Wells, in which he picked up an anaconda choke after being dominated for two and a half rounds. He’s 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to future title challenger Shavkat Rakhmonov.

However, the style of grappling Harris employs has me leaning towards Williams. His best technique is a D’Arce/Anaconda choke, which works by countering opponents’ wrestling. Since Williams is very unlikely to even attempt any grappling, Harris will instead have to rely on his mediocre takedown game.

I expect the takedown defense and athleticism edge for Williams to hold up here, making him my preferred play. However, I’ll have a fair dose of Harris as well, as he could end this fight fast with a takedown. One or the other will be in the bulk of my lineups this week.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC 283 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Hill vs. Teixera, More Saturday Fights UFC 284 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Volkanovski vs. Makhachev, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 69 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Andrade, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 90 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Allen vs. Curtis, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.