UFC

UFC Vegas 91 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Nicolau vs. Perez, More Saturday Fights

After taking last week off, the UFC returns with UFC Vegas 91 from the Apex Center. The 13-fight card is headlined by a top-ten flyweight matchup between Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez.

The card locks at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

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Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Matheus Nicolau ($8,700) vs. Alex Perez ($7,500)

The main event features two fighters looking to get a foothold in a division desperately needing worthy title contenders. Perez is a former title challenger who was dispatched by Deiveson Figueiredo in the first round back in 2020, and he’s fought just twice since. While both of those were losses, they came against now-champion Alexandre Pantoja and rising star Muhammad Mokaev.

This makes the fight with Nicolau something of a step down for Perez and a step up for the Brazilian. Nicolau had his four-fight winning streak snapped by Brandon Royval in his last fight in what turned out to be a number-one contender fight.

He’ll be looking to rebound from the knockout after more than a year out of action. Nicolau has tremendous power for a flyweight, with eight knockdowns scored across nine fights. He also brings a solid submission game but little in the way of wrestling.

This means where this fight takes place will be largely up to Perez. He’s a former junior college All-American wrestler who averages nearly a takedown per round in the UFC. However, two of his four UFC losses have been via submission.

With that said, I was impressed by Perez’s submission defense against Mokaev, who had submitted four of his five previous opponents coming in.

I like the underdog Perez in GPPs, as his wrestling gives him a bit more upside, especially relative to his price. He’s also the more voluminous striker and likely to score better on a per-minute basis. Of course, this one is a must-stack in cash, as both fighters have solid activity rates, and it’s the only five-round contest.

The Easy Chalk

James Llontop ($8,200)

It’s been a while since we had one of these. Llontop was originally slated to fight Gabe Green in a fight that was roughly a pick ’em. Green had to pull out due to an injury — but only after DraftKings locked DFS salaries.

Now Llontop gets Chris Padilla ($6,900), who comes into the weekend with a 13-6 record fighting in regional MMA promotions (including a first-round loss to Green in Bellator.) Llontop is now better than a -400 favorite while being priced like a coin flip.

We don’t need a technical breakdown to see the value there. Llontop should be at least $1,000 more expensive, making him essentially a must play in cash. He’ll be the most popular player on the slate by a long shot.

This of course creates an argument for fading him in large-field GPPs. If you’re taking that contrarian route, be sure to roster Padilla. Given their much cheaper combined salaries, the winner of this one is close to a lock for being in the optimal lineup.

The Upside Play

Ryan Spann ($8,900)

Were it not for the Llontop situation, Spann would likely be the most popular fighter on the slate. He’s taking on Bogdan Guskov ($7,300) in the co-main event of the evening in a fight that’s an absurd +1000 to go to a decision.

Both Spann and Guskov are big, powerful light heavyweights who prefer to get things done early. Spann has finished five of his seven UFC wins — all of those in the first two rounds — while Guskov has seen just one decision in 18 professional fights.

Spann isn’t a massive favorite at -175, but his ceiling with a win is huge. It’s also a big step up for Guskov. The Uzbekistani fighter is making just his third trip to the Octagon, while Spann is a top-12 ranked light heavyweight.

Spann should be the better fighter wherever this one takes place, with a massive reach, athleticism, and grappling edge. There’s enough risk that the hard-hitting Guskov finds the button early that it’s scary for cash games, but Spann is a tremendous GPP option.

The Value Play

Don’Tale Mayes ($7,900)

There’s only three fights favored to go to a decision on this weekend’s card. One of those, perhaps surprisingly, is the UFC’s obligatory low-level heavyweight fight. Don’Tale Mayes is 3-4 in the UFC, and he’ll be taking on Caio Machado ($8,300). Machado is looking to get his first UFC victory after losing a lackluster decision in his debut back in November.

Weight class notwithstanding, anyone who’s watched either fighter can see why this fight is favored to go all 15 minutes. Mayes has some UFC finishes, but he spends the bulk of his fights throwing short strikes while pressing his opponent against the fence.

Machado is the more active striker early on in his UFC tenure but doesn’t pack big power. That makes the floor for Mayes a decision loss, during which he should score enough not to tank your lineup.

I like Mayes for the salary relief provided in cash games, especially with the moneyline in the fight moving his way throughout the week. However, his ceiling is fairly limited, so I won’t have much of him in GPPs.

The Contrarian Choice

Rani Yahya ($6,700)

Outside of the main event and Mayes, I’m not particularly interested in any of the slight underdogs on the card. However, a few of the bargain-basement fighters will be rotating through my lineups.

My favorite of the group is Yahya. The 39-year-old veteran has been with the UFC since 2011, hovering around a .500 record for most of that time. While he’s certainly well past his athletic peak, he still has an ace in the hole: His elite grappling.

Yahya is a former ADCC (the Olympics of nogi submission grappling) world champion, with seven submission wins in the UFC. Unlike many submission specialists, he also has strong takedowns, averaging 2.86 per 15 minutes in the Octagon.

That’s an interesting set up against Victor Henry ($9,500). Despite joining the promotion in 2022, Henry is 36 years old. That alleviates most of the fear about Yahya’s advancing age, as the slight gap shouldn’t be consequential.

Henry has also surrendered a takedown in all four of his UFC fights, and he has a kick-heavy striking style that allows plenty of openings for grappling.

Yahya is “submission or bust” here, but his chances of pulling one off far exceed the market right now. That makes him worth a flier or two in GPPs.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Jhonata Diniz ($9,000) vs. Austen Lane ($7,200)

While one of the heavyweight fights on this card is favored to see the judges, the other is more than ten-to-one to end early. That’s the main card bout between former NFL defensive end Austen Lane, and recent DWCS graduate Jhonata Diniz.

Diniz picked up an impressive first-round knockout on the Contender Series, dropping his opponent twice in the first round. He has an extensive kickboxing background before transitioning to MMA, where he’s 6-0 as a pro with six first round knockout wins.

He should find a willing dance partner in Lane, who’s 12-4 professionally with 11 wins by knockout and one submission. Lane is nowhere near the level of technical striker that Diniz is, but he has enough power to make this one interesting as long as it lasts.

On paper, Lane could also try to wrestle here, though he’s yet to attempt a takedown in four fights between the Contender Series and UFC. Still, one would think his football background would at least translate loosely to some takedown ability.

Either way, given the high variance likely in this fight, I want exposure to it from both sides. I’m staying away from it in cash games, but I will have one fighter or the other in all my GPP lineups.

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After taking last week off, the UFC returns with UFC Vegas 91 from the Apex Center. The 13-fight card is headlined by a top-ten flyweight matchup between Matheus Nicolau and Alex Perez.

The card locks at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

  • Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
  • Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
  • Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials,
Become a PRO Member
 

Main Event

Matheus Nicolau ($8,700) vs. Alex Perez ($7,500)

The main event features two fighters looking to get a foothold in a division desperately needing worthy title contenders. Perez is a former title challenger who was dispatched by Deiveson Figueiredo in the first round back in 2020, and he’s fought just twice since. While both of those were losses, they came against now-champion Alexandre Pantoja and rising star Muhammad Mokaev.

This makes the fight with Nicolau something of a step down for Perez and a step up for the Brazilian. Nicolau had his four-fight winning streak snapped by Brandon Royval in his last fight in what turned out to be a number-one contender fight.

He’ll be looking to rebound from the knockout after more than a year out of action. Nicolau has tremendous power for a flyweight, with eight knockdowns scored across nine fights. He also brings a solid submission game but little in the way of wrestling.

This means where this fight takes place will be largely up to Perez. He’s a former junior college All-American wrestler who averages nearly a takedown per round in the UFC. However, two of his four UFC losses have been via submission.

With that said, I was impressed by Perez’s submission defense against Mokaev, who had submitted four of his five previous opponents coming in.

I like the underdog Perez in GPPs, as his wrestling gives him a bit more upside, especially relative to his price. He’s also the more voluminous striker and likely to score better on a per-minute basis. Of course, this one is a must-stack in cash, as both fighters have solid activity rates, and it’s the only five-round contest.

The Easy Chalk

James Llontop ($8,200)

It’s been a while since we had one of these. Llontop was originally slated to fight Gabe Green in a fight that was roughly a pick ’em. Green had to pull out due to an injury — but only after DraftKings locked DFS salaries.

Now Llontop gets Chris Padilla ($6,900), who comes into the weekend with a 13-6 record fighting in regional MMA promotions (including a first-round loss to Green in Bellator.) Llontop is now better than a -400 favorite while being priced like a coin flip.

We don’t need a technical breakdown to see the value there. Llontop should be at least $1,000 more expensive, making him essentially a must play in cash. He’ll be the most popular player on the slate by a long shot.

This of course creates an argument for fading him in large-field GPPs. If you’re taking that contrarian route, be sure to roster Padilla. Given their much cheaper combined salaries, the winner of this one is close to a lock for being in the optimal lineup.

The Upside Play

Ryan Spann ($8,900)

Were it not for the Llontop situation, Spann would likely be the most popular fighter on the slate. He’s taking on Bogdan Guskov ($7,300) in the co-main event of the evening in a fight that’s an absurd +1000 to go to a decision.

Both Spann and Guskov are big, powerful light heavyweights who prefer to get things done early. Spann has finished five of his seven UFC wins — all of those in the first two rounds — while Guskov has seen just one decision in 18 professional fights.

Spann isn’t a massive favorite at -175, but his ceiling with a win is huge. It’s also a big step up for Guskov. The Uzbekistani fighter is making just his third trip to the Octagon, while Spann is a top-12 ranked light heavyweight.

Spann should be the better fighter wherever this one takes place, with a massive reach, athleticism, and grappling edge. There’s enough risk that the hard-hitting Guskov finds the button early that it’s scary for cash games, but Spann is a tremendous GPP option.

The Value Play

Don’Tale Mayes ($7,900)

There’s only three fights favored to go to a decision on this weekend’s card. One of those, perhaps surprisingly, is the UFC’s obligatory low-level heavyweight fight. Don’Tale Mayes is 3-4 in the UFC, and he’ll be taking on Caio Machado ($8,300). Machado is looking to get his first UFC victory after losing a lackluster decision in his debut back in November.

Weight class notwithstanding, anyone who’s watched either fighter can see why this fight is favored to go all 15 minutes. Mayes has some UFC finishes, but he spends the bulk of his fights throwing short strikes while pressing his opponent against the fence.

Machado is the more active striker early on in his UFC tenure but doesn’t pack big power. That makes the floor for Mayes a decision loss, during which he should score enough not to tank your lineup.

I like Mayes for the salary relief provided in cash games, especially with the moneyline in the fight moving his way throughout the week. However, his ceiling is fairly limited, so I won’t have much of him in GPPs.

The Contrarian Choice

Rani Yahya ($6,700)

Outside of the main event and Mayes, I’m not particularly interested in any of the slight underdogs on the card. However, a few of the bargain-basement fighters will be rotating through my lineups.

My favorite of the group is Yahya. The 39-year-old veteran has been with the UFC since 2011, hovering around a .500 record for most of that time. While he’s certainly well past his athletic peak, he still has an ace in the hole: His elite grappling.

Yahya is a former ADCC (the Olympics of nogi submission grappling) world champion, with seven submission wins in the UFC. Unlike many submission specialists, he also has strong takedowns, averaging 2.86 per 15 minutes in the Octagon.

That’s an interesting set up against Victor Henry ($9,500). Despite joining the promotion in 2022, Henry is 36 years old. That alleviates most of the fear about Yahya’s advancing age, as the slight gap shouldn’t be consequential.

Henry has also surrendered a takedown in all four of his UFC fights, and he has a kick-heavy striking style that allows plenty of openings for grappling.

Yahya is “submission or bust” here, but his chances of pulling one off far exceed the market right now. That makes him worth a flier or two in GPPs.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

 

The Swing Fight

Jhonata Diniz ($9,000) vs. Austen Lane ($7,200)

While one of the heavyweight fights on this card is favored to see the judges, the other is more than ten-to-one to end early. That’s the main card bout between former NFL defensive end Austen Lane, and recent DWCS graduate Jhonata Diniz.

Diniz picked up an impressive first-round knockout on the Contender Series, dropping his opponent twice in the first round. He has an extensive kickboxing background before transitioning to MMA, where he’s 6-0 as a pro with six first round knockout wins.

He should find a willing dance partner in Lane, who’s 12-4 professionally with 11 wins by knockout and one submission. Lane is nowhere near the level of technical striker that Diniz is, but he has enough power to make this one interesting as long as it lasts.

On paper, Lane could also try to wrestle here, though he’s yet to attempt a takedown in four fights between the Contender Series and UFC. Still, one would think his football background would at least translate loosely to some takedown ability.

Either way, given the high variance likely in this fight, I want exposure to it from both sides. I’m staying away from it in cash games, but I will have one fighter or the other in all my GPP lineups.

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

UFC Vegas 61 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Dern vs. Yan, More Saturday Fights UFC 283 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Hill vs. Teixera, More Saturday Fights UFC Vegas 80 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Dawson vs. Green, More Saturday Fights UFC 294 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Makhachev vs. Volkanovski, More Saturday Fights

About the Author

Billy Ward writes NFL, MLB, and UFC DFS content for FantasyLabs. He has a degree in mathematical economics and a statistics minor. Ward's data-focused education allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports. Prior to joining Action and FantasyLabs in 2021, he contributed as a freelancer starting in 2018. He is also a former Professional MMA fighter.