UFC

UFC Vegas 90 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Allen vs. Curtis, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Apr 5, 2024

With just one week left before UFC 300, the UFC has a fairly low-level Apex event on tap this Saturday. Headlined by a middleweight rematch between Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis, lineups lock at 3:00 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Brendan Allen ($8,900) vs. Chris Curtis ($7,300)

Brendan Allen has put together one of the most impressive runs in the UFC, winning each of his last six fights, with five submission victories in that span. That streak started in 2022 following his last loss — which came in a short-notice bout against Chris Curtis.

Which is exactly the situation he finds himself in this time. Allen was originally slated to fight former title challenger Marvin Vettori, but an injury to the Italian forced him out of the contest.

Allen is looking for a better result than last time, when Curtis defended all three of Allen’s takedowns before picking up a second-round knockout. Typically the winner of the first fight has an edge in rematches, but recent form from both men explains the line and price tag on Allen.

Curtis is 2-2-1 over his last five, and he surrendered three takedowns in a no-contest to Nassourdine Imavov after defending 100% of the attempts against him prior to that. He’s 36 years old and seems to have his best days in the rear-view mirror, with Allen surging rapidly.

Allen is a solid DFS option, as his improved takedowns in a small cage should be enough to ground Curtis at some point. With five rounds to work with, this fight is -200 to end inside the distance, so we should also see a solid score from the winner. This fight is close enough — and both men score well enough on a per-minute basis — that I’ll be stacking it in cash, but I’m leaning solidly toward the favorite in GPPs.

The Easy Chalk

Ignacio Bahamondes ($9,100)

When salaries came out for this event, there were a handful of fighters favored, around -300 or more. Most of those fighters have seen money come in on their opponents — or are in bouts likely to go the distance. Except for Bahamondes.

His -340 moneyline odds against Christos Giagos ($7,100) have held firm this week in a fight that’s -200 to end by stoppage. The Chilean holds most of that stoppage equity, obviously, with -120 odds to win this fight inside the distance. He’s finished three of his four UFC/Contender Series wins and 10 of 14 as a professional.

He’s not a massive upside play, as there are fighters with better odds to win early and/or more takedown upside. However, he’s by far the safest play on the slate, with solid per-minute scoring thanks to his seven significant strikes landed per minute in the Octagon.

That makes Bahamondes my favorite cash game play on the board. I have some light interest in him for GPPs, though I’ll probably be looking elsewhere in most of my tournament teams.

The Upside Play

Charlie Campbell ($9,000)

Charlie Campbell is one of the fighters I prefer as a GPP option over Bahamondes. He’s taking on noted wild man Trevor Peek ($7,200) in a fight that’s even money to end in the first round. Both men are reckless strikers with big power, and the fight is -500 to end inside the distance.

The line has moved somewhat towards Peek throughout the week, which has its pros and cons. On the one hand, it’s a good indicator Campbell probably isn’t worth his elevated price tag. On the other, we should get a solid ownership discount on the fighter who’s still a -175 or so favorite.

Campbell’s floor is near zero here, and his relative lack of grappling upside means he probably needs an early win to justify his price tag. That’s somewhat likely, though, thanks to his slate-leading +175 odds to win in the first round. I’m staying far away from this fight in cash games but I will have a decent amount of Campbell (and a smaller amount of Peek) in my GPP portfolio.

The Value Play

Germaine de Randamie ($7,600)

All three women’s underdogs this week have a case as a value play. Each of their bouts are favored (to varying degrees) to go all 15 minutes, and two have seen some line movement towards the underdog. That ultimately makes it a price-based decision between Randamie, Cynthia Calvillo ($7,800) and Nora Cornolle ($6,900).

With that said, Randamie is easily my favorite when considering all the factors. She’s moved to a better moneyline price than Calvillo despite checking in at $200 cheaper and arguably has more upside than either of the other two.

She’s taking on Norma Dumont ($8,600) after being out of action for over three years. Randamie is a former featherweight champion and was 6-1 with four finishes from 2015-2020, with the only loss coming via unanimous decision to the women’s GOAT Amanda Nunes.

If we could be confident she’s near her former form, she’d be a big favorite in this matchup against Dumont. While Dumont is solid, she’s picked up a string of close(ish) decisions against lower-level opposition and has never finished a UFC fight.

At the very least, that gives “The Iron Lady” a solid floor, as she holds all of the finishing upside. At best, she picks up a stoppage and smashes her cheap salary.

The Contrarian Choice

Nora Cornolle ($6,900)

I mentioned Cornolle above as a potential value play, but I like her more as a contrarian GPP option. She’s the sole women’s underdog to not see the line mover her way this week — but I’m not entirely sure why.

Cornolle is a former elite-level muay thai fighter who was ranked No. 2 in the world at her weight class before transitioning to MMA. She lost her pro debut to Jacqueline Cavalcanti — who’s now also in the UFC — but has won seven straight since then. Six of those have been finished with five knockouts.

She’s facing the undefeated Melissa Dixon ($9,300) (listed in some outlets as Melissa Mullins). Dixon is 6-0 as a pro and also 1-0 in the UFC but got dropped and nearly finished by Irinia Alekseeva early in her UFC debut. While Dixon went on to dominate from there, that’s a worrying sign now that she’s matched with a much more dangerous striker.

Dixon is also not as prolific as a finisher, with only three stoppage victories in her career. That means a solid floor for Cornolle and plenty of upside, thanks to her elite technical striking. I love Cornolle for GPPs, both thanks to her price and her likely low ownership.

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The Swing Fight

Alexander Hernandez ($8,700) vs. Damon Jackson ($7,500)

The style with which Hernandez fights is extremely conducive to DFS success — just not always for him. He’s an extremely aggressive fighter who comes out guns blazing from the opening bell, then typically falls off a cliff from there. He’s 3-0 in the UFC in fights that end in round 1 but has been stopped four times in round two.

Which aligns nicely with the salaries of the UFC Vegas 90 co-main event. Damon Jackson is cheap enough that a later win pays off his salary, while an early win for Hernandez does the same. Jackson also has the grappling upside (2.44 per 15 minutes) to put up a good score in a decision victory as well.

I’m personally leaning toward the Jackson side of this matchup. Hernandez is 1-3 over his last four bouts, with his only win coming against 40-year-old Jim Miller. Jackson has dropped two in a row but put up a solid score (55 points) in one of them and had a four-fight winning streak before the recent skid.

Either way, this is a fight you’ll certainly want exposure to. Based on how each fighter is likely to win, the victor should easily pay off their DFS salaries.

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.