UFC

UFC Vegas 89 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Namajunas vs. Ribas, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Mar 23, 2024

The women’s flyweight division takes center stage on Saturday, with former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas looking to pick up her first win at 125 against top-ten flyweight Amanda Ribas. It’s a 13-fight card in all, starting at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Rose Namajunas ($9,200) vs. Amanda Ribas ($7,000)

It’s been a weird couple of years for Rose Namajunas. “Thug” Rose picked up a pair of victories over Weili Zhang in 2021 to claim and defend the strawweight title, but it’s been downhill ever since. First was her bizarre performance in a split-decision loss against Carla Esparza, in which she landed only 37 strikes over 25 minutes while largely avoiding engaging with Esparza.

Following that, she abandoned the 115lbs division (where she holds two wins over the current champion) to move up to 125, where she lost another lackluster decision to Manon Fiorot.

Now she gets another shot at flyweight against Amanda Ribas. Ribas has also bounced between strawweight and flyweight in the UFC, finding more success in the smaller weight class. She’s an extremely dangerous grappler who holds black belts in both Judo and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and showed improved striking in her last fight, knocking out Luana Pinheiro with a spinning wheel kick.

Ribas tends to struggle against bigger, stronger fighters but that shouldn’t be an issue here unless Namajunas has put on considerable muscle since her last appearance. Namajunas is the better striker on paper but seems to be trending in the wrong direction, while Ribas makes steady improvements.

At her peak, Namajunas would be an easy pick here — but I’m not convinced she’ll ever return to that level. I like the grappling upside of Ribas for GPPs since she could pay off her salary with just a few takedowns over a 25-minute fight. I’ll be stacking both in cash games, but I have little interest in Namajunas outside of that.

The Easy Chalk

Edmen Shahbazyan ($9,100)

There are not a lot of strong spend-up options this week, as only three fighters have moneyline odds of -200 or better. One of those is Namajunas, and another is competing in the fight likeliest to see a decision according to betting odds.

This leaves us, almost by default, with Shahbazyan as the best option at the top of the salary scale. “Golden Boy” has fallen on hard times after a fast start to his UFC career but is still just 26 years old. He’s gone 1-4 in the Octagon since 2020, but his losses have all been to top 12 ranked middleweights (with the exception of the now-departed Derek Brunson, who was also ranked at the time.)

The UFC is now giving him a chance to build back up with a fight against AJ Dobson ($7,100). Dobson is 1-2 in the UFC with a pair of lackluster decision wins, and it is a good opportunity for Shahbazyan to right the ship.

The favorite has plenty of upside here as well. He’s finished 11 of his 12 career wins, with every stoppage coming in the first two rounds. He could be in trouble if the fight goes much longer than that, but betting markets suggest that’s relatively unlikely. He’s a solid play in all contest types.

The Upside Play

Justin Tafa ($6,900)

It’s first round knockout or bust for Justin Tafa. The heavyweight is stepping in for his injured brother — who got injured while stepping in for Justin last month — in a heavyweight matchup against Karl Williams ($9,300) on Saturday.

Tafa is 4-3 in the UFC, with none of his wins lasting longer than two minutes. Those all produced scores of at least 103 DraftKings points. He’s also shown a solid floor in his losses, with at least 30 points in two of the three. That’s extremely strong for a fighter at his price point.

Williams is the exact opposite, with decisions in six of his nine career wins, including all three in the UFC or Contender Series. That further boosts Tafa’s floor, as he’s unlikely to get starched in the early rounds.

Tafa is also extremely underpriced for his moneyline odds. Bets have come in steadily on his side after opening as a +200 underdog — as of Friday, the lien is somewhere between +150 and +160 across the industry. That makes Tafa a solid play by any metric — he has a strong floor, plenty of upside, and is a good value. Fire him up in all contest types.

The Value Play

Youssef Zalal ($7,600)

I’m a little bit surprised at the line movement in this fight between Zalal and Billy Quarantillo ($8,600). Zala opened up as a +136 underdog, leading to his cheap DFS price. Now the line is roughly a pick ’em, making Zala about $400 too cheap on DraftKings.

Zala is making his return to the UFC after going 3-3-1 in his first stint. The fighters who beat him have a combined UFC record of 16-6 and include featherweight champ Ilia Topuria. He went the distance against Topuria — and all of his opponets, as he’s never been finished in his professional career.

Quarantillo has alternated wins and losses since 2020, going 4-3 in that span. He’s a solidly UFC-level fighter, but certainly not Topuria. That means the floor for Zalal is likely a somewhat competitive decision, while the ceiling is a win — and any win should be enough at his salary.

This fight is one of the likeliest on the card to see the judges. That makes Zalal more of a cash game play, but there’s certainly a GPP angle as well.

The Contrarian Choice

Payton Talbott ($8,300)

Typically we wouldn’t think of a fighter in this price range as being contrarian, but it’s a strange week for the DraftKings pricing algorithm. The lack of heavy favorites means plenty of cheap fighters project as strong values — which frees up salary to spend up in the upper $8k range rather than picking close fights.

Talbott is taking on fellow prospect Cameron Saaiman ($7,900) in what should be a relatively competitive fight. I broke down the technical side of things in my betting preview, where I picked Talbott to get the job done.

I like him even more as a DFS option, though. Across nearly six full rounds of action (including the Contender Series), he’s averaged nearly seven significant strikes per minute, giving him a strong floor and plenty of upside even if this fight goes to a decision.

He also packs plenty of power, winning all five of his pre-UFC fights by knockout. While that’s obviously against lesser competition, I suspect he’ll get back to his fight-ending ways at some point in the UFC. He’s a strong play in all contest types.

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The Swing Fight

Andre Lima ($9,000) vs. Igor Severino ($7,200)

Two flyweight prospects make their debut on Saturday in a fight that’s lined much closer than the DFS salaries would imply. Both Lima and Severino are Brazilians coming in from the Contender Series, and both have undefeated pro records.

Lima is just a +150 or so underdog here, making him the better on-paper value. The 20 year old has been a pro since age 14, and picked up a big knockout win on the Contender Series. That fight saw him land five takedowns and tow knockdowns — a dream scenario for DFS.

Severino has plenty of upside though. A former kickboxing champion, he competed in over 80 striking bouts before making the jump to MMA. Five of his seven wins are via knockout, and he looks to be an extremely polished striker.

The high price should make Lima a solid contrarian option, while Severino has plenty of upside for his salary. Both are strong GPP plays, and I could see a case for Severino in cash games as well.

Sean Zerillo and I both like Severino as an underdog play, which we discussed on our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.