UFC

UFC Vegas 88 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Tuivasa vs. Tybura, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Mar 15, 2024

The UFC returns to the Apex with a card headlined by top-10 heavyweight and fan favorite Tai Tuivasa taking on Marcin Tybura. The card is 13 fights deep, thanks to some late additions, with contests set to lock at 4:00 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Tai Tuivasa ($8,300) vs. Marcin Tybura ($7,900)

We’ve hit the point in Tai Tuivasa’s career where we can safely say he’s not going to be a champion. That doesn’t mean there are not plenty of fun fights left from him, as he looks to snap a three-fight losing streak against top competition on Saturday.

He gets a significant step down against Marcin Tybura, a solid but forgettable heavyweight who’s plodded his way to an 11-7 UFC record. Seven of those 11 wins came via decision, and he has below-average numbers in terms of takedowns, striking volume, and knockdown rate.

All of which makes the explosive Tuivasa by far the better DFS play here. Of his eight UFC wins, seven have been via knockout, and none lasted longer than two rounds. While I’m not entirely confident Tuivasa can break his losing streak here, if he does he’s nearly certain to be in the optimal lineup.

The same can’t be said about Tybura, even at a cheaper price. His recent wins went for 64 and 59 DraftKings points, while he has scores of two and 30 in his last two losses. Even with five rounds to work with, that puts him at around 80 points with a win.

So it’s Tuivasa or pass for me in GPPs, and I have no problem fading this fight. I have no issues with a stack in cash games, but that’s mostly just a hedge against a slow-paced decision. If there’s an alternative around either fighter’s salary you prefer, picking a side here is a fine strategy as well.

The Easy Chalk

Kennedy Nzechukwu ($9,400)

Kennedy Nzechukwu stands out in a big way this week against Ovince St. Preux ($6,800). Nzechukwu opened as a significant -500 favorite for this bout but has been bet down even further to -700 since salaries were released.

More importantly, he’s -300 to pick up a finish in this fight and roughly even money to get it done in the very first round, which is about what you’d expect for the powerful “African Assasin” since he’s finished his last five straight wins.

Especially against St. Preux, who turns 41 this month and has just one win since 2020. That win came against fellow elder statesmen Shogun Rua — who was 40 at the time — and via split decision. “OSP” has succumbed to knockout every other time he’s entered the cage over the last four years.

I’m expecting massive ownership on the favorite here, but it’s hard to argue against. He’s a lock for all contest types.

The Upside Play

Thiago Moises ($9,300)

Another fight that came together on short notice is that of Thiago Moises against UFC newcomer Mitch Ramirez ($6,900). Moises is a highly decorated submission grappler with a 6-5 UFC record, three of those wins coming via submission. Ramirez was knocked out on the Contender Series before getting the call as a last-minute replacement.

Everything we’ve seen from Ramirez suggests he’s primarily a striker, but perhaps not that dominant of one, given his Contender Series result. He’s many levels below Moises in the grappling department, as Moises has been training jiu-jitsu for over 20 years and is a well-regarded black belt.

Of course, we typically don’t love submission grapplers from a DFS perspective. They tend to struggle to get takedowns but keep their opponents down once they do — removing the opportunity for more takedown points. Additionally, submissions come without the added points from strikes and knockdowns that knockouts do.

This means Moises needs a first-round finish at his salary to contend for the optimal lineup, hence viewing him more as an upside option than a safe play. It’s well within the realm of possibility, but he’s more of an ownership pivot from Nzechukwu than a foundational lineup piece.

The Value Play

Danny Silva ($7,300)

Danny Silva is also making his debut in the UFC proper, though he had a much more successful DWCS showing than Ramirez. In 15 minutes of action, he landed over 200 significant strikes, picked up two takedowns, and scored a knockdown.

That’s an excellent per-minute output from Silva, who takes on Josh Culibao ($8,900) in preliminary action on Saturday. Culibao is strictly a striker, never having so much as attempted a takedown in his UFC career. He’s also never finished a UFC fight by knockout.

That means the floor case for Silva here likely includes 15 minutes of work, during which time he should be able to, at a minimum, rack up a decent output of strikes. The fight is +120 to go the full 15 minutes, but a significant portion of the stoppage upside belongs to Silva.

Any win at his salary would almost certainly propel him into the optimal lineup, while he provides a reasonably solid floor even if he loses. That makes him an excellent cash game play but also an intriguing GPP option when looking to save salary.

The Contrarian Choice

Christian Rodriguez ($7,700)

For the third straight fight, Christian Rodriguez is facing an undefeated prospect with plenty of momentum behind them. Both of those previous occurrences ended with Rodriguez’s hand raised.

He’ll look to make it three straight against Isaac Dulgarian ($8,500), a 6-0 professional making his second UFC appearance. All six of those wins have come in the very first round, with the former D2 All-American wrestler immediately grounding his opponents and finishing him on the canvas.

Rodriguez is not an easy man to do that to, though. He faced a similar matchup against Raul Rosas, defending 13 of 16 takedown attempts and taking over following the first round. Cameron Saaiman tried to beat Rodriguez on the feet and was also unsuccessful, with the second and third rounds going unanimously to Rodriguez.

“C Rod” is making a habit out of weathering the early storm against untested prospects, before taking over in the second and third rounds. That would be the perfect game plan against a fighter who’s never seen a second round as either an amateur or professional.

The elephant in the room is that Rodriguez missed weight for both of those wins and is (mercifully) up a division at featherweight for this fight. While that’s typically a downgrade, he’s just 26 years old and clearly too big for 135, so I’m less concerned with the jump in division.

I like the underdog to win here, which naturally makes him a strong DFS play. He’s unlikely to pick up an early win or tons of takedowns — which limits his upside — but any win has a reasonable shot at making the optimal at his salary.

Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.

The Swing Fight

Josiane Nunes ($8,400) vs. Chelsea Chandler ($7,800)

With the UFC semi-officially shuttering the women’s featherweight division, there’s a lot of uncertainty about how its former competitors will fare. That describes both Josiane Nunes and Chelsea Chandler, neither of whom have made 135 in the UFC.

That’s one element of uncertainty here, though it probably favors the undersized Nunes, who, at 5’2″ tall, was too small for featherweight. As of this writing, she’s made weight with no problem, while Chandler is yet to weigh in.

More importantly, this is a classic striker-vs-grappler pairing. Nunes has seven of her 10 career wins via knockout, including one in the UFC. Chandler also has solid power but trains with the Diaz brothers at Caesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu in Stockton, California. She picked up a win via ground-and-pound in her UFC debut.

This fight should be fairly close, with both women having the ability to end things in a hurry should their opponent slip up. It’s -135 to end inside the distance, and a stoppage should be enough for a spot in the optimal lineup. Especially for the cheaper Chandler, whose $600 price saving has me leaning her way.

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.