Heading into next week’s UFC 299, we have a low-wattage UFC event with UFC Vegas 87: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev. It’s also a tough one from a DFS perspective, with plenty of massive favorites and limited value to be found. Still, there are contests to be won, so we’ll break it all down, including the main event between heavyweight contender Jairzinho Rozenstruik and rising prospect Shamil Gaziev.
This event has a special 1:30 p.m. ET start time, so be sure to have your lineups situated early.
With just 11 other fights, building unique lineups will be critical for GPPs this week, so we’ll go over all the options as we look for the best plays on the card.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Shamil Gaziev ($8,300) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik ($7,900)
The main event is one of a precious few reasonably close fights on this card, with the favored Gaziev coming in at around a -180 favorite. Still, that makes him a reasonable value here, as the line has been inching his way throughout the week.
Gaziev is a perfect 12-0 as a pro, but just two of those wins fell under the UFC banner. They include his first-round knockout on the Contender Series, as well as a second-round KO in his UFC debut. That makes this a big step up against Rozenstruik, the UFC’s No. 12 ranked heavyweight.
Rozenstruik has been in the main event for half of his 12 UFC fights, amassing a 7-5 record along the way. All seven of those wins came via knockout, and he’s been finished in three of his five losses. The five fighters who beat him are all currently ranked inside the top seven — save Francis N’Gannou, who left the promotion as champion.
Still, I get the favoritism for Gaziev. Like Rozenstruik, he’s a power puncher, but his regional tape shows a far more complete overall game. He also doesn’t have the mileage on his chin that “Bigi Boy” does, with the veteran having suffered two knockout losses in the UFC and likely more as a kickboxer.
This one is highly likely to end early, with under 1.5 rounds juiced up to -190. Still, it makes sense to stack in cash games — we need the savings, and getting this one wrong would likely sink any lineup without the winner. For GPPs, having one or the other will be a priority. There’s a reasonable chance that whichever fighter wins this one will be the cheapest winner on the slate (there’s no fight priced at $8,200/$8,000), which would likely end up in the optimal lineup.
The Easy Chalk
Muhammad Mokaev ($9,100)
There are plenty of options at the top of the salary scale this week, with eight of the slate’s fighters at -300 or better odds to win. While I expect roughly similar ownership among all of the top options, Mokaev is my favorite all-around play of the bunch.
He strikes a solid balance between salary, upside, and safety that’s hard to find on the slate. He’s finished four of his five UFC victories, including his last three, by submission. He’s taking on Alex Perez ($7,100), who’s 6-3 in the UFC, with all three losses coming on the ground (two via submission and one ground and pound.)
It’s a near-perfect matchup for Mokaev, an elite wrestler and submission grappler. Mokaev could post a big score with an early finish — or via repeated takedowns in a longer fight. He has at least three takedowns in all but one UFC appearance — and that’s because he won that fight in the opening minute.
Mokaev has also seen the line move significantly his way, as I predicted in my Luck Ratings for this week’s card. He’s moved from the -270 mentioned in the article to -355, making him a strong value as well as a reasonably safe play.
The Upside Play
Ludovit Klein ($9,600)
With nine of the card’s 11 fights favored to end inside the distance, there’s plenty of upside to be found this weekend. The best bet for an early finish just might be Klein, who’s in what looks to be a massive mismatch against UFC newcomer AJ Cunningham ($6,600) on Saturday.
Klein was originally booked against Joel Alvarez in what looked to be a competitive fight between two rising UFC lightweights. However, Alvarez was forced off the card, and Cunningham took his place.
Cunningham was knocked out on the Contender Series last September and rebounded with a regional win over a journeyman with a losing record. Nothing on his resume suggests he’s UFC level, while Klein is 4-2 in the promotion.
While Klein has just one finish among those four wins, he’s averaging a solid 1.5 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a knockdown in a fight that went to the judges. Given the massive skill and preparedness edge he’ll have here, he should finish this one easily.
He’s -250 to pick up a win without the judges, making him a strong GPP option. I’d look elsewhere in cash games, though, as the salary is hard to swallow, and there are other fighters projecting similarly for cheaper prices.
The Value Plays
Aiemann Zahabi ($6,700)
With so few fights likely to last their duration, value is hard to come by here. Similarly, the line has moved towards the favorite in 10 of the 11 fights on the card. That, unfortunately, includes Zahabi — but his fight against Javid Basharat ($9,500) is at least likely to see the judges.
That should give Zahabi, the younger brother of famed MMA trainer Fares Zahabi, a full 15 minutes to put up points. He’s a reasonably strong per-minute fighter, with three knockdowns in six UFC fights and a reasonably strong activity rate. While a knockdown is unlikely to happen here, even a 20-30-point score would be valuable at his price point in cash games.
He’ll almost certainly be outmatched by Basharat here, meaning he’ll need a fluke to pick up a win bonus. But that’s not the point of the play — we’re just trying to capture floor and save salary for the heavy favorites.
The Contrarian Choice
Loik Radzhabov ($7,800)
One of the few underdogs with a reasonable shot at winning is Loik Radzhabov, who takes on Abdul-Kareem Al-Sewady ($8,600) in the night’s opening bout.
Radzhabov is 1-1 in the UFC following a knockout loss last June. However, he showed promise in his UFC debut, picking up 11 takedowns in a decisive win. The question is whether Al-Sewady is closer in skill to the fighter Radzhabov beat (Esteban Ribovics) or the one that he lost to (Mateusz Rebecki).
For my money, the answer is B. Rebecki is 3-0 in the UFC and a quickly rising contender, while the Ribovics win aged well thanks to Ribovics winning his next fight. Al-Sewady is making his UFC debut following an impressive Contender Series win but remains unproven at the UFC level.
The market has swung solidly towards the favorite here, but that makes Radzhabov an even more intriguing GPP option. I’ll have plenty of him on Saturday.
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The Swing Fight
Vinicius Oliveira ($8,600) vs. Bernardo Sopaj ($7,600)
One of the more intriguing bouts on the card features a pair of UFC newcomers. Oliveira is a Contender Series signee who punched his ticket to the Octagon with a first-round knockout victory. He was to take on Yannis Ghemmouri before Ghemmouri withdrew.
This leads us to Sopaj. Sopaj was booked to fight in his native Sweden on Saturday before getting the call to the big show. That’s a good thing for the underdog, as it means he had a full fight camp to prepare for his Octagon debut. While he has a new opponent now — so does Oliveira.
The market reflects that, and this line has moved to nearly a pick ’em price on Friday. However, this is a very high-variance fight. Little is known about either fighter against top competition, and it’s heavily favored to end inside the distance.
Both fighters have finished the majority of their victories — but all of those came against lesser opponents. That makes this fight better suited for GPPs, with an obvious value-based lean to Sopaj. Still, I want a solid amount of the slightly more tested Oliveira as well, who I expect to come in at lower ownership.
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