We’re at the Apex once again for UFC Vegas 86, with a middleweight main event between Joe Pyfer and Jack Hermansson. The full 14-fight card starts at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Joe Pyfer ($9,000) vs. Jack Hermansson ($7,200)
This is interesting matchmaking from the UFC, pitting rising star Joe Pyfer in his first main event against the perpetually-ranked Jack Hermansson.
Pyfer is a perfect 3-0 in his UFC career, earning his way into the Octagon with an impressive knockout in his second appearance on the Contender Series. He’s finished all three of his UFC bouts, with two knockouts and a submission. However, this is a huge step up for Pyfer. Only one of his previous opponents has a winning record in the promotion, with Gerald Meerschaert sneaking in at 10-9.
Hermansson is 10-6 for the promotion but built that record against top competition — or rising prospects — for most of his tenure. A gatekeeper in the most complementary sense of the word, Hermansson has ended the hype train of rising stars like Chris Curtis (3-0 before fighting Hermansson) and Edmen Shahbazyan (3-1).
Pyfer should have a pretty clear edge on the feet, both in terms of power and volume. Hermansson is a suffocating grappler, though, making this an interesting clash of styles. Pyfer justifies his price tag and favorite status thanks to some highly underrated grappling of his own, but he should be attempting to keep this fight on the feet.
From a tournament perspective, I like the underdog here. Pyfer’s cardio could be an issue in his five-round debut, whereas Hermansson has plenty of main event experience. Additionally, a close win for Pyfer at his price tag probably doesn’t make the optimal lineup, whereas Hermansson has the chance to sneak in even with a loss if he racks up takedowns.
For cash games, I’ll likely be using both fighters, but fading Pyfer there as well is tempting for salary reasons.
The Easy Chalk
Carlos Prates ($9,200)
There are plenty of options at the top of the salary scale, but the best mix of safety, upside, and price point belongs to Prates. He’s about as heavy of a favorite as any fighter on the card for his bout against Trevin Giles ($7,000), with odds between -250 and -275.
Unlike the card’s other heavy favorites (outside of the main event), the bulk of his win condition is inside the distance. With -250 odds to end inside the distance, that gives him considerably more upside than the other fighters in his salary range, with his moneyline odds indicative of a strong floor.
Prates has finishes in 15 of his 17 professional wins, including a knockout victory on the Contender Series that earned his spot in the Octagon. That sets up perfectly against Giles, who’s been finished in all five of his career losses.
That finish would probably need to be early for Prates to land in the optimal lineup based on his salary. He’s +180 to finish Giles in the first round and +400 in the second, for a combined implied probability of 55%. That’s a very strong figure, especially considering his floor is still probably a decent score.
The Upside Play
Robert Bryczek ($8,800)
Bryczek is a Polish debutante who enters the fight having knocked out his last five opponents in various European promotions. It’s difficult to handicap how that stacks up against UFC-level competition, of course — but he’s not fighting UFC-level competition this time around.
His opponent is Ihor Potieria ($7,400), who sports a 1-3 UFC record. That in and of itself doesn’t mean he’s not cut out for the Octagon, but how he got to that record does. His lone win was over 41-year-old Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in Rua’s retirement fight — a retirement that was many years overdue.
Outside of that win, Potieria has been knocked out in all three of his UFC appearances while finding almost no success at any point in those bouts. He’d be a much bigger underdog here if Bryczek wasn’t such an unknown. This is probably our last chance to take “Fighter vs. Potieria” in the UFC, so I won’t be missing it.
As an added bonus, this fight is an absurd -1200 to end inside the distance, meaning whoever wins likely walks away with an optimal-worthy score.
The Value Plays
Bogdan Guskov ($7,800)
Guskov is another unknown quantity coming into his second UFC appearance. He’s 0-1 in the UFC following a lackluster debut against Volkan Oezdemir in September. However, Guskov took that fight on very short notice — and Oezdemir is currently ranked inside the top 10 in the UFC’s rankings.
He has a much easier matchup this time around against Zac Pauga ($8,400). Pauga was a finalist in season 30 of The Ultimate Fighter at heavyweight but got knocked out by Mohammed Usman in the finale. Following that fight, he returned to the light heavyweight division, where he’s gone 1-1.
That win was an unconvincing decision over former middleweight Jordan Wright, the fourth loss in a row for Wright but the only non-finish in that span. Pauga then lost to Modestas Bukauskas — who also has a losing UFC record.
The point is, this is a much easier matchup for Guskov, who’s seen his odds drop from +130 or so late last week to roughly even money on Friday. That’s a good sign that he’s on the sharp side here, with an attractive price point relative to his betting odds.
The Contrarian Choice
Jeremiah Wells ($8,500)
After opening as around a -170 favorite, Jeremiah Wells has seen action come in on his opponent, Max Griffin ($7,700), pushing his odds down to around -150. That tends to suppress ownership since his salary is too high relative to his odds. It’s also a sign that the public prefers his opponent, so we can feel reasonably confident Wells won’t be too popular.
Which could be a mistake. Wells suffered his first UFC loss in his last appearance, getting put to sleep with an anaconda choke in the third round of a fight he was dominating. He still scored a reasonable 44 DraftKings points in that appearance — and his prior low score was 96.
He’s a near-perfect fighter for DFS, throwing violent strikes on the feet before transitioning to takedowns. He’s finished three of his four UFC wins and picked up six takedowns in the other. That means a Wells win almost certainly comes with a big fantasy score attached to it.
I expect him to pick up the win against Griffin, a 38-year-old fighter who’s 1-2 over his last three bouts. Griffin has big power — which is scary given Wells’ somewhat shaky chin — but the favorite has an enormous grappling edge here. Given that we’re in the small cage at the Apex, that should be enough to make the difference.
Wells is one of my favorite plays for all contest types, but especially GPPs, where I expect him to be underutilized heavily.
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The Swing Fight
Michael Johnson ($8,300) vs. Darrius Flowers ($7,900)
Michael Johnson might be the hardest fighter to handicap ever in the UFC. He’s fought 28 times in the UFC, amassing a 13-15 record dating back to 2010. In that time he has wins over Dustin Poirier and Edson Barboza — and losses to fighters like Darrin Elkins and Jamie Mullarkey.
We truly never know which Johnson we’ll get on any given night. The veteran lefty still had massive power at age 37, solid counter-striking, and excellent takedown defense. He has a knack for making fatal mistakes at the wrong moment, though, like in his last appearance, where he was easily beating Diego Ferreira before getting knocked out.
Which makes for an intriguing matchup against Darrius Flowers. Flowers made his UFC debut last year on short notice and up a weight class. He took on the always-solid Jake Matthews and had some moments early with an ultra-aggressive style, before predictably wearing out in the second round.
That style could pay off against Johnson, who has a tendency to lapse defensively at the wrong moment. It’s also possible that style was a result of knowing he didn’t have the gas for three rounds, and Flowers comes in with a more technical approach this time.
I don’t have the slightest idea which is more likely to happen. However, with -360 stoppage odds and two powerful strikers, you’ll almost certainly need the winner of this fight to take down a GPP. For that reason, I’ll be splitting my exposure roughly evenly between the pair and hoping for the best.
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