We’re back at the Apex for UFC Vegas 85, with a main event between two ranked middleweight contenders. Before that, we have a banger of a co-main event with Drew Dober taking on Renato Moicano. Lineup lock is at 4:00 p.m. Eastern Time, so be sure to have your contests entered early.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Nassourdine Imavov ($8,600) vs. Roman Dolidze ($7,600)
We have an interesting matchup between ranked middleweights headlining the first fight card of February. Both men had built some momentum with winning streaks recently, then both lost their “step up” fights against stiffer competition.
Whoever wins this one will secure their place in the top ten with a chance to push into title contention. The favorite is Imavov, a Dagestan-born French resident with an interesting mix of styles. He’s primarily known for his striking, out-landing his opponents by nearly a full significant strike per minute in the UFC. Of course, his Dagestani heritage shines through from time to time, with a solid takedown game and both of his UFC finishes coming on the ground.
That makes this a tricky matchup with Dolidze. Dolidze likes to stand and bang, with three straight knockouts before his recent decision loss to Marvin Vettori. However, he’s also a former ADCC competitor with a high-level submission game. That makes taking him down a risky move.
I like the way this matchup sets up for Dolidze from a DFS standpoint. While Imavov has the technical striking edge, Dolidze is the more powerful of the pair. Similarly, Imavov is more likely to get a takedown here, with Dolidze more likely to finish things on the mat.
For GPPs I’m going Dolidze or pass, while likely utilizing the usual strategy of stacking both five-round fighters in cash games. I could see a case for passing on one or both in cash though, as it’s unlikely to be a super high-volume affair regardless of who wins.
The Easy Chalk
Azat Maksum ($8,900)
Undefeated flyweight Azat Maksum is making his second trip to the Octagon on Saturday after extending his overall record to 17-0 with a split decision win over Tyson Nam in July. While it wasn’t the most convincing win, Maksum was the rightful winner over the UFC veteran.
He gets the chance for a more convincing win against Charles Johnson ($7,300). Johnson is a bit of a step down in competition for the Kazakh prospect, with a 2-4 UFC record including three straight losses. More importantly, plenty of those losses were to stylistically similar fighters to Maksum.
The UFC keeps booking Johnson against relentless grapplers, and he’s been taken down 31 times in six UFC bouts. Maksum attempted 11 takedowns in his debut, and while he landed just two, Nam is much tougher to ground statistically.
Johnson’s solid escapes make him a perfect DFS opponent. He’ll scramble back to his feet and allow opportunities for further takedowns and thus further scoring, which makes Maksum a very solid play. Even if he were to drop a decision or get finished late, he’s likely to have picked up enough takedowns to secure at least a solid score.
He’s my favorite play in all contest types, with everything pointing in his direction. The line has shifted significantly his way this week, the stoppage odds of +165 suggest a long fight (and thus high floor), and his takedowns give him a massive ceiling.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
The Upside Play
Thomas Petersen ($8,700)
As we’ll touch on with a couple of these fighters, this pick is more about the opponent. For Peterson, that’s Jamal Pogues ($7,500). Pogues is a former light heavyweight who jumped up a weight class in his second shot at the Contender Series and has gone 1-1 since getting into the UFC.
However, his level of competition in the Octagon has been extremely low. Heavyweight is a thin weight class — which likely explains his move up — and his lone win came against Josh Parisian, who is 2-4 in the UFC. That win was fairly lackluster, as Pogues was outstruck by the plodding Parisian despite landing five takedowns.
He almost certainly won’t be able to do that against Petersen, a former D1 wrestler who landed all three of his takedown attempts in his submission victory on the Contender Series. Petersen looks like a legit heavyweight prospect, and it seems like the UFC matchmaking wants this to be a showcase bout for the newcomer.
With Petersen finishing all nine of his pro victories en route to a 9-1 record — his only loss came to future UFC fighter Waldo Cortes-Acosta — he has plenty of upside from both takedowns and finishes. He’s a solid play in all contest types.
The Value Plays
Julija Stoliarenko ($8,200)
I’m following the betting markets on this one, as Stoliarenko is now roughly a -150 favorite after opening around a pick ’em. Typically, we’d like to get a cheaper fighter in this spot, but the line movement for Stoliarenko stands out among the slate’s somewhat cheap options.
More of an upside play than a cash option, she’s finished both of her UFC wins by first-round armbar, with ten of her 11 pro wins via submission. That’s in stark contrast to her opponent Luana Carolina ($8,000), who has won UFC fights exclusively by decision.
That means a Stolirenko win likely comes fast, while a loss at least gives her 15 minutes to accrue points. That boosts her floor higher than that of similarly-priced fighters, most of whom are expected to be in far quicker fights.
While it’s never comfortable to bet on a one-trick pony, she’s a reasonable option if you need to save the salary for other fighters.
The Contrarian Choice
Pete Rodriguez ($7,000)
This one might look extremely silly in retrospect, but hear me out. Pete Rodriguez is 1-1 in the UFC, with a loss to a ranked opponent (Jack Della Maddalena) on short notice in his debut, then a win over one of the worst UFC fighters of the modern era (Mike Jackson) in his follow up performance.
This makes it hard to evaluate his skills, as most fighters would have similar results against those two opponents. He certainly packs some power as he showed against Jackson, and he had brief moments of success against Maddalena. He has solid boxing with great use of body shots, but he tends to overthrow his strikes a bit, leading to openings for his opponents.
He’s fighting Themba Gorimbo ($9,200), also 1-1 in the UFC. Gorimbo’s win over Takashi Sato says more than Rodriguez’s over Jackson, but Sato was riding a three-fight losing streak into that bout. Prior to that, he was submitted by AJ Fletcher after getting rocked on the feet.
Gorimbo is billed as a grappling specialist, but I have a hard time buying that given how bad he looked against Fletcher while getting submitted. He’s also borderline lost on the feet and should provide an opening for Rodriguez to land a big strike.
Between his price tag and how he’s likely to win — his knockout odds are nearly identical to his +210 moneyline — Rodriguez is nearly a lock to make the optimal lineup with a win. On a slate devoid of cheap options, he’s worth the risk.
The Swing Fight
Renato Moicano ($8,400) vs. Drew Dober ($7,800)
There was no doubt about what would be the swing fight this time around. Renato “Money Moicano” Carneiro is taking on Drew Dober in the co-main event of the evening. This bout promises violence, as both men are prodigious finishers.
On paper this is a striker vs. grappler matchup, with Moicano having six submission victories in nine UFC wins and Dober picking up knockouts in nine of his 13 Octagon victories. However, both fighters are at least comfortable in the other’s arena, with Moicano showing off impressive striking improvements in his last appearance.
Dober’s grappling is a bit more of a question mark, as he’s been primarily matched up with strikers in recent bouts. He’s been submitted in half of his eight UFC losses but has since earned a jiu-jitsu brown belt and conceivably rounded out his skill set.
Oddsmakers are expecting a finish either way, with -360 odds for a stoppage. Moicano has seen some line movement his way, going from -155 at the time salaries were released to around -185 on Friday. That makes him the better value play on paper, as a -185 favorite would be a bit more expensive typically.
Of course, that also means an ownership discount on Dober. A Dober win should land him in the optimal lineup, with that win being likelier than I expect his ownership to imply. Either way, you’ll want one of the two lightweights in all of your GPP lineups this weekend.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC Fight Night: Paris DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Gane vs. Tuivasa, More Saturday Fights
UFC 279 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Diaz vs. Ferguson, More Saturday Fights
UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights
UFC Kansas City DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Holloway vs. Allen, More Saturday Fights
