The UFC is back, with the first card of the year going down this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Vegas. UFC Vegas 84 features the rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker, with the full 12-fight card kicking off at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Magomed Ankalaev ($9,400) vs. Johnny Walker ($6,800)
This fight is a rematch from UFC 294, which was ended prematurely due to an illegal knee from Ankalaev. Walker seemed to be able to continue, but a language barrier between him and the ringside physician led to the fight being waved off. Nothing I saw in the roughly three-minute bout did anything to change my thoughts heading into that event, which I’m copying here:
Amid the slew of big underdogs on the UFC card, one name stands out as having a considerably higher ceiling than the rest of the bunch. That’s Walker, a +280 underdog against Magomed Ankalaev ($9,100) on the UFC 294 main card.
It’s hard to get a read on Walker, a wild striker who went 1-4 against mostly top-tier competition from 2019 to early 2022. He had serious issues with fight IQ during that span, getting into brawls with strikers and fighting far too cautiously at times. Since then, he’s gone 3-0 with two first-round stoppages and seems to have found a balance between his unorthodox striking and technical soundness.
Ankalaev was a heavy favorite in his fight for the vacant UFC light heavyweight title late last year but fought to a draw with Jan Blachowicz. Ankalaev was thoroughly outclassed through the first three rounds of that fight and salvaged a draw with a dominant fifth round against a gassed Blachowicz.
Crucially, he was picked apart with leg kicks in that fight, a bad omen against Walker. Walker is the tallest and longest fighter in the division, and with the bigger cage should be able to stay on the outside and chop at Ankalaev’s legs.
Walker also has an underrated ground game, with a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He should be able to at least survive the grappling encounters here while having an edge on the feet.
Ankalaev is a deserving favorite here, but Walker has a better shot here than his salary would indicate. Rostering him also frees up a ton of salary for the heavy favorites on the card and is my favorite option for getting up to them in salary.
The biggest change is to the DFS salary and betting lines, both of which have shifted towards Ankalaev. Additionally, this fight is now five rounds. While the latter factor likely benefits Ankalaev, the over/under of 1.5 rounds suggests it won’t much matter.
Like at 294, Ankalaev deserves to be a favorite here, but not nearly to the extent the price tag implies. I’ll be stacking this one in cash while going somewhat overweight on the underdog for tournaments.
The Easy Chalk
Jean Silva ($9,600)
Jean Silva was about a -750 favorite Monday at the time DFS salaries came out for this card. Now he’s moved to -950 on DraftKings and as high as -1100 in other spots.
That’s an absurd line for a fighter making his UFC debut. Especially one coming in off a close Contender Series fight in which he won 29-28 on all three scorecards. It says a lot about his opponent, Westin Wilson ($6,600), who is 16-8 overall and 0-1 in the UFC.
The market also thinks the heavy-handed Silva will finish this one early, with -225 odds to win in the very first round. That again feels like a slight stretch — but emphasis on slight.
There’s probably a game-theory angle in taking the extreme underdog here in big GPPs. MMA is an extremely volatile sport, and Silva is unproven at the sport’s highest levels. However, it’s hard to argue with those odds for cash games and smaller tournaments, where Silva should be considered a lock.
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The Upside Play
Tom Nolan ($9,200)
We have plenty of options in the $9,000 range this week who project well. My favorite among that group is Tom Nolan, a massive Australian lightweight making his UFC debut.
Nolan is a perfect 6-0 in his pro career, with the last four all coming via knockout. His 6’3″ height will tie him for the tallest active lightweight once he enters the cage, but he packs plenty of power in his lengthy frame. He has roughly six inches of both height and reach on Nikolas Motta ($7,000), his opponent this week.
Motta is 1-2-1 in the UFC, with both losses coming via knockout. Additionally, his no-contest was due to a premature stoppage when Motta was caught in a submission that almost certainly would’ve eventually forced him to tap. With four knockout losses among his five career defeats, it’s hard to see him taking the power shots from Nolan and moving forward.
Nolan is about a -350 favorite, but the bulk of his win condition (-195) is via knockout. On top of that, he’s roughly even money to win by knockout in the very first round. You’d feel good about any finish, but a first-round stoppage would easily pay off his price tag.
The Value Plays
Mario Bautista ($7,600)
Bautista is the more expensive of the value plays this week, but he’s just a +160 underdog. Additionally, at +110 odds, his fight with Ricky Simon ($8,600) has the second-longest odds to go to a decision at the time of writing.
That makes him a reasonably safe option, as the likeliest scenario here is a decision loss. He’d still have enough time to pay off his modest salary in that scenario while obviously exceeding it with a win.
Bautista is a pretty live dog here, with dangerous clinch strikes that could potentially slow down Simon’s wrestling. Bautista is roughly equally likely to win this one by decision or by finish, giving him a nice combination of ceiling and floor.
The Contrarian Choice
Gabriel Benitez ($8,000)
I wouldn’t normally include an $8,000 fighter as the contrarian option in this piece — but normally, they aren’t fighting fan-favorite Jim Miller ($8,200). That’s the unfortunate task assigned to Gabriel Benitez, who faces the UFC’s record holder for most Octagon appearances on Saturday.
Sentimentality around Miller has colored the betting line and DFS price, with money coming in on the 40-year-old. That’s a mistake, as Miller’s recent form has come against fairly weak opposition. Most recently, against a UFC debutant who took the fight on less than a week’s notice, for example.
While Benitez is far from the rankings, he’s still 7-6 in the UFC. He looked much better in his last fight after moving up to lightweight, a move that tends to benefit fighters as they age. Benitez had been a featherweight for 15 or so years by that point and missed weight in consecutive fights.
“Moggly” is also a stylistic challenge for Miller, as he prefers to fight moving backward and at range. Miller tends to charge in aggressively, which should leave openings for counters from the quicker Benitez. While the grappling edge lies with Miller, he’s been mostly unable to score takedowns in recent years as his speed and explosiveness wanes.
Add to that the chance that Miller finally has hit the end of the line heading into his 43rd UFC fight, and there are plenty of reasons to believe in the slight underdog. The fact that the line moved towards Miller should also keep his ownership down, furthering the GPP case.
The Swing Fight
Brunno Ferreira ($8,300) vs. Phil Hawes ($7,900)
When looking at the Vegas lines for this card, the first thing that jumped out at me was two separate bouts lined at -1000 or greater to end inside the distance. The first of those (which we discussed earlier) features Jean Silva as a massive favorite. The other has a tight moneyline, with Brunno Ferreira as a slight favorite over Phil Hawes.
Those stoppage odds are hard to argue with. Ferreira is a massive power puncher who’s never had a fight last even seven minutes. Hawes is a former D-1 Wrestler who’s been knocked out in the first round in three of his last four fights, with a second-round knockout win in the other.
If Ferreira wins this one, it’s a fairly safe bet he does so early and violently. For Hawes, odds are he either leans on his wrestling or finishes a completely gassed Ferreira late. The former case would provide a big DFS score through takedowns, the latter through a stoppage.
With that said, I’m nearly confident enough in Ferreira to roster him in every lineup. He’s a black belt in both BJJ and Judo — so he should be able to survive the ground with Hawes — with cardio that’s more accurately described as “unproven” than “bad.” I dug deeper into the reasons why in my betting preview at The Action Network.
Either way, whoever gets the victory here almost assuredly pays off their price tag. I’ll have nearly 100% exposure to this fight, heavily tilted toward Ferreira.
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