UFC

UFC Vegas 83 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Yadong vs. Gutierrez, More Saturday Fights

By Billy Ward @Psychoward586
Dec 8, 2023

The UFC’s penultimate event of 2023 is upon us, with an 11-fight card for the Apex Center in Vegas. Headlined by ranked bantamweights Chris Gutierrez and Song Yadong, the event starts at 7:30 p.m. ET.

We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.

Main Event

Song Yadong ($9,200) vs. Chris Gutierrez ($7,000)

While neither fighter is a household name, this is a sneakily fun matchup between two exciting bantamweights. We should see a purely stand-up fight in the main event on Saturday, with these two fighters combining for around two-thirds of a takedown per 15 minutes in their UFC careers.

There are still some big stylistic differences between the two. The heavily favored Yadong is mainly a boxer with big power in his hands. He likes to dart into range, throw one or two big shots, then dart back out. His volume numbers aren’t great, but he throws with such force he only needs one big shot to end the fight.

This contrasts with Gutierrez, who’s known for his devastating leg kicks. “El Guapo” likes to stay at kicking range, using excellent footwork and plenty of jabs, feints, and misdirection to set up his powerful kicks. Once he softens his opponent up with leg kicks, he’ll mix levels to the body and occasionally head with his power kicks.

The five-round nature of this fight makes this an interesting one. Yadong has more experience in five-rounders, with both of his last fights making it to the fifth frame. In one, he won rounds one and two, before losing the next two rounds and being stopped in the fifth. On the other, he dominated the fight before picking up a stoppage in the final frame.

Gutierrez has never had a five-round fight, but in theory, his style is better suited. He doesn’t load up on his shots — which should preserve cardio — and his leg and body shots pay dividends over time. He also trains at elevation in Colorado, which should give him a cardio boost.

A Yadong win probably means a somewhat early stoppage, as Gutierrez is likely to win minutes while Yadong has big moments with his heavy shots. A Gutierrez win is probably a late stoppage or a decision — but any win would provide a great GPP score at his price tag.

It’s also worth noting that Gutierrez has never been knocked out as a pro, and was knocked down just once in 11 UFC fights. I like his chances of stretching this one, which means I’ll be overweight on him for GPPs.

While I’m certainly stacking this one in cash, I could also see a case for a GPP stack. It’s tough to build unique lineups in an 11-fight card, and both fighters could have solid scores if it goes all 25 minutes. Which it’s roughly even money to do, with “fight goes the distance” at -105 on DraftKings.

The Easy Chalk

Tatsuro Taira ($9,400)

There are two possible options here, with Taira and HyunSung Park ($9,600) both around -600 favorites as of Friday. Both opened around -400 before an onslaught of bets stretched those lines out. Of course, it’s difficult to fit both fighters into lineups at their price tags.

From a cash game/safety standpoint, I certainly prefer Taira. While both fighters can grapple, Taira’s the likelier of the two to rely on his. That’s a good thing, as it means he can post a solid (price-considered) score whether this fight gets finished or not. A longer fight means more takedowns and a shorter fight means a bigger win bonus.

He’s facing Carlos Hernandez ($6,800), a solid overall fighter but one who’s far better on the feet. On the other hand, Park is fighting Shannon Ross ($6,600), who has three straight knockout losses in the UFC. That gives Park a higher ceiling, but a bit more risk — as even a second-round knockdown probably doesn’t justify his salary.

For those reasons, I slightly prefer Park for GPPs but will go for the safety of Taira in cash games — unless I can find a way to fit both fighters.

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The Value Play

Sumudaerji ($7,100)

This one is fairly straightforward, as we had an opponent switch that led to the fighters in this bout adding up to $15,500 — $700 cheaper than the typical fight. Sumudaerji was a heavy underdog to Allan Nascimento but is now taking on Tim Elliott ($8,400) at close to even-money odds.

Which means all of the savings on this fight are from the Mudaerji line. Elliott’s salary is around what we’d expect from a fighter with a line of -125 or so. Additionally, we’ve seen the line on “The Tibetan Eagle” drop even since the opponent switch was announced, as he was originally +140 or so against Elliott.

From a stylistic standpoint, this fight likely comes down to Sumudaerji’s power punching against Elliott’s relentless grappling. However, the lack of training camp for Elliott makes it much harder to be relentless for a full 15 minutes, and Elliott has just one stoppage in eight UFC wins.

All of which gives the underdog a very solid floor at worst, and considerable upside for more if he can find a late stoppage.

He’s a must for cash games, and a strong GPP play — though he will likely come in with huge ownership.

The Contrarian Choice

Andre Muniz ($7,400)

Were it not for the obvious value created by Sumudaerji, Muniz might not quite fly under the radar this week. After opening as more than a +200 underdog, sharp action has pushed his price down to around +140. It’s likely that some of those people betting on him would also play him in DFS — though it’s less necessary when there are more obvious values on the slate.

Muniz is taking on Jun Young Park ($8,800), better known to MMA fans as “The Iron Turtle.” Park enters the weekend on a four-fight winning streak, with the last three all coming via submission.

Which sounds great — until you look at the grappling credentials of Muniz. “Sergipano” is a third-degree BJJ black belt with 15 professional wins by submission. He’s 5-2 in the UFC, but both losses came at the hands of fellow elite grapplers in Paul Craig and Brendan Allen, with Muniz able to take down and/or submit every other UFC opponent.

Of course, he’s an underdog for a reason. Mainly his lackluster striking and poor cardio. In each of his UFC losses he had early success before fading, and his striking leaves much to be desired. Still, that’s a solid path for upside, as a Muniz victory likely means either a quick finish, plenty of takedowns, or both.

I don’t mind Muniz in cash games if he makes other lineup builds work, but my primary interest is for GPPs. He should go somewhat overlooked in favor of Sumudaerji and Gutierrez at the low end of the salary scale.

The Swing Fight

Khalil Rountree Jr. ($8,900) vs. Anthony Smith ($7,300)

The betting lines on this fight are considerably closer than the salaries would suggest. That’s because money has come in on Smith since he stepped up to take this fight on around 10 days notice, with his moneyline dropping from +200 to around +165 as of Friday.

It’s also a fight that should provide a ton of DFS goodness no matter which way it goes. Rountree is an extremely powerful striker, with three knockout victories in his last four fights. Smith is a former title challenger who’s been up and down since taking Jon Jones to a decision.

Smith’s cleanest path to victory here is through his grappling. He’s a well-regarded black belt in BJJ, with four submission victories in the UFC. Rountree is tough to take down but fairly easy to beat if you do take him down. Rountree is 8-2 in fights where he isn’t taken down, but 0-4 when he is.

This sets up perfectly for DFS, as the two paths to big scores are quick knockouts or takedowns. I tend to agree with the money coming in on the Smith side. Even if you don’t, it’s a big data point for DFS. Since his salary remains unchanged, we’re getting a much cheaper “dollar per win percentage” from Smith than we normally would. Additionally, Smith likely makes it into the optimal lineup with any victory, while Rountree needs to outperform the other favorites in his price range.

Still, going into this one with no exposure to Rountree would be a mistake. He’s taking on an older fight who stepped in on short notice and has a massive power and athleticism advantage. He’s -135 to end this one with a knockout.

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under

You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.