UFC 295 was set to be the return of heavyweight legend Stipe Mioccic against the arguable greatest fighter of all time in Jon Jones, but for the third consecutive event, an injury to one of the main event fighters caused the fight to be canceled.
However, in its place, we have a stacked card with two vacant titles up for grabs. The main event is the return of Jiri Prozchaka, a one-time light heavyweight champion who surrendered his belt due to injury, against former middleweight champion Alex Pereira.
We still have a heavyweight banger at the top of the card, with a co-main event for an interim championship between Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall, two of the most promising heavyweight prospects in a long time.
Lineups lock at 6:00 ET for the 13-fight card at Madison Square Garden, with the main card set to start at 10:00 p.m.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Brendan Allen ($9,400) vs. Paul Craig ($6,800)
Saturday’s main event features a -750 line on the fight to end inside the distance, giving it obvious DFS appeal. Brendan Allen puts his five-fight winning streak on the line as a -425 favorite against Paul Craig, as the latter makes his second appearance at middleweight.
Craig was once a highly touted light heavyweight contestant, holding a win over former champion Jamahal Hill. However, a pair of bad losses sent him down to middleweight, where he picked up an impressive second-round stoppage of Andre Muniz in July.
Both Craig and Allen are known for their grappling, with six submission wins each in the UFC. Craig is extremely one-dimensional and will pull guard or shoot desperate takedowns to get the fight to the floor — or at least that was how he fought at light heavyweight. He looked more comfortable on the feet and in landing takedowns in his middleweight debut.
Allen is probably the (slightly) inferior grappler here but the more well-rounded fighter. He’s a willing and able striker who occasionally gets tagged, but more often than not comes out ahead in striking exchanges. He didn’t even attempt a takedown against Andre Muniz (a noted grappling specialist himself) until the third round, where he caught a slow kick from the exhausted Muniz.
This is probably how he’ll approach this one, keeping the fight on the feet where he has a bigger advantage. Still, both men have suspect chins, and Craig throws hard, giving him a solid punchers chance on the feet. It’s anyone’s game if it gets to the ground, though I’d lean slightly towards Paul. Either way, this fight is here for a good time, not a long time.
For cash games, I’ll be stacking this fight — not because the loser has a high floor, but because the variance is high enough that guessing wrong would be a lineup killer. In GPPs, I want to be overweight the field on Paul. His cheap salary considerably opens up your options, and I like his chances more than his odds imply.
The Easy Chalk
Christian Leroy Duncan ($8,500)
We don’t often see chalky fighters in the mid $8K range. However, this one is a special circumstance. Duncan was originally set to fight Cesar Almeida as a slight favorite before Almeida caught a staph infection and had to be removed from the card.
In his stead is Dennis Tiuliulin ($6,800), who took the bout on roughly a week’s notice. The news broke just after DraftKings released salaries for the slate, keeping Duncan at his original $8,500 price tag.
Now he’s a -410 favorite, slightly better than Mick Parkin ($9,200), who costs $700 more. That makes Duncan a must in cash games, and he should be a large part of your GPP portfolio as well.
“CLD” is a dangerous striker, with finishes in seven of his eight career UFC victories. Tiuliulin is 1-3 with the promotion, with the only win coming against a fighter who went 2-6 in the Octagon. This would be a solid spot for Duncan even if Tiuliulin had a full camp to prepare — it’s an excellent one now.
The Upside Play
Michael Morales ($9,100)
The three fighters in the low $9,000 range are all close this week, with similar projections on the bunch. All three fights are moderately favored to end inside the distance, checking in between -150 and -190.
That makes parsing between them difficult this week, but when factoring in their price tags, I prefer Morales. He’s fighting Jake Matthews ($7,100) in the co-main event and is a perfect 3-0 in the UFC at just 24 years old.
Two of those wins were knockouts, with the Ecuadorian prospect showing off his elite striking ability. His last fight against Max Griffin went the distance, but Griffin took a ton of damage, and most lesser fighters wouldn’t have seen the final bell. Morales also mixed in a takedown, which could go a long way to his fantasy production if it becomes a habit.
Matthews was dropped three times against Matthew Semelsberger and is primarily a brawler who should be there for the hitting against Morales. Matthews is tough, but he’s giving up seven inches in reach, and plenty of speed against the up-and-coming fighter.
Morales probably needs a finish to pay off his price tag here, but the same can be said for all of the top fighters this week. I like his chances, particularly if he mixes in some grappling.
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The Value Play
Ailin Perez ($7,600) or Luana Pinheiro ($7,200)
I’ve grouped both fighters together here, not because I suggest playing both but because they’re both fairly similar, especially when considering their price tags.
Ailin Perez is somewhat likelier to see the judges against Lucie Pudilova ($8,600), with their fight having the longest odds of ending early on the card at +180. However, Pinheiro is close against Amanda Ribas ($9,000), with their fight checking in at +125.
Most of that discrepancy is thanks to Pinheiro’s finishing ability, with Ribas much more likely to win a decision than her fellow favorite Pudilova. This is to say that Pinheiro is more likely to go all 15 minutes in a losing effort, while Perez has a better chance of pulling off an upset.
At least according to the market. I actually like Pinheiro’s chances here, as I broke down in my betting preview. Either way, she’s a better cash game play by the numbers, with Perez making more sense for GPPs. However, it’s close in both regards, so it makes sense to go up to Perez if you have the salary in any contest type — but I wouldn’t sacrifice other fighters on my roster for it.
The Contrarian Choice
Uros Medic ($8,900)
Just like we don’t often see cheaper fighters as overwhelming chalk, we tend not to see many expensive contrarian pieces, either. However, Medic is in the inverse situation as Duncan — a late opponent swap has taken him from a moderate favorite to a slight underdog after prices dropped.
The new opponent is Myktybek Orolbai ($8,400) an 11-1 UFC debutant with ten wins via stoppage. Based on his record, he’s the real deal, with three wins for LFA, including two knockouts. Orolbai is a -142 favorite on DraftKings as of Friday morning, making it a tough sell to pay up for Medic.
Still, he’s a debuting UFC fighter taking a bout on just a few days’ notice, which is generally a tough ask. Medic’s only career loss is to ranked lightweight Jalin Turner, and he’s finished all nine of his professional wins, two in the UFC. He’s likely to come in at extremely low ownership, creating a massive leverage opportunity.
Obviously, the likeliest outcome is that he doesn’t live up to his pricetag, which was bestowed upon him when he was a -225 favorite. That will keep him off my cash game and single-entry lineups, but I want to take a sprinkle in some GPPs.
The Swing Fight
Jonathan Pearce ($8,400) vs. Joanderson Brito ($7,800)
This featherweight bout has -250 odds to end inside the distance, with Pearce a slight favorite at -130. That makes it an obvious swing fight choice, with both men having clear paths to upside.
Brito is on a three-fight winning streak, each of which topped 100 DraftKings points. All three were first-round finishes, and he has a mix of striking power and takedowns that are ideal for DFS. He comes into the fight averaging over three takedowns per 15 minutes and 0.49 knockdowns.
“JSP” is a bit more one-dimensional but still productive. He checks in at just under six takedowns per 15 minutes and over six significant strikes — mostly from the top position — per minute. He’s won five straight fights with a low fantasy score of 96.
Whoever wins this one should produce a big score, but it’s tough to pick a side. Brito is a dangerous submission fighter, so Pearce may wrestle himself into danger. Or, Brito uses his grappling ability to get back to the feet, so Pearce can take him down again.
Either outcome produces a big score for the winner, so I’ll be rostering one or the other in all or most of my GPP lineups — with a slight lean toward Pearce if I can find the salary.
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