UFC Vegas 78 features a main event between two long time veterans Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos. Both are a win or two away from the title picture, making this a critical juncture for both fighters moving forward. Before that, we have a 13 fight card that kicks off at 4:00 eastern.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Rafael dos Anjos ($8,200) vs. Vicente Luque ($8,000)
Saturday’s main event is arguably the only consequential fight in terms of rankings on the UFC Vegas 78 card. It features former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos against Vicente Luque, who was in title contention before his current two-fight losing skid.
This fight looks to be as close as the DFS salaries would indicate, with RDA holding as a slight -120 favorite as of Friday. It’s a clash of styles, with dos Anjos known for his excellent top control and wrestling, compared to the dynamic striking and footwork of Luque.
Neither man is lost in the others’ domain though. dos Anjos is a competent striker, and Luque is a BJJ black belt. Luque struggles to defend takedowns but is dangerous off his back and has a high-level get-up game.
The takedown upside makes RDA the better DFS choice here, as most of Luque’s points will come via striking volume. Luque needs a finish to post a big score, while dos Anjos could get there even in a decision, thanks to Luque’s get-up ability. On the other hand, I’m leaning towards Luque as the likely winner here, as wrestling for five rounds is a big ask for dos Anjos, and the 38-year-old feels destined to fall off a cliff athletically in the very near future.
Regardless, I’ll be mixing in a roughly equal amount of both for GPPs, with this being an obvious stack for any cash games.
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The Easy Chalk
Josh Fremd ($9,400)
The heavy favorites on this card are lines as such, not because of their extraordinary ability but due to the weakness of their opposition. That includes Fremd, who’s taking on Jamie Pickett ($6,800) to open the main card.
Pickett was recently seen being sacrificed to the alter of Bo Nickal, and he’s 2-5 overall in the UFC, with four of those losses coming via finish. Fremd is just 1-2 in the UFC but should be the bigger, stronger man and hold some athleticism advantages here.
He’s also tied for the slate’s heaviest favorite at -355 (with Marcus McGhee ($9,600)), and the $200 in savings is enough to have me lean his way. It’s not the most comfortable pick — but there aren’t any comfortable picks this time around.
Sean Zerillo laid out the case for why Fremd finishes this one without the aid of the judges in our latest UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
Terrance McKinney ($9,200)
The story on McKinney is similar to that of Fremd. He’s not a great fighter by any stretch, but he’s taking on Mike Breeden ($7,000), who’s 0-2 in the UFC and a former Contender Series loser.
McKinney is known more for his excitement than his winning, with a 3-3 UFC record, but all of his wins came inside the first round. In fact, 12 of his 13 professional wins have been in the opening frame, and he’s never once stuck around to hear the judges’ scorecards.
The problem is when things go past the opening few minutes. McKinney’s aggressive starts and explosive ability leave him with nothing left in the tank after a few minutes, as evidenced by his last two second-round losses. He should be a far better fighter than Breeden here, but if Breeden survives the opening salvo, it could get ugly.
That makes McKinney an excellent GPP play, thanks to his sky-high upside, but one I’ll be staying far away from in cash games.
The Value Plays
Polyana Viana ($7,500)
This is a formula play for me here. Viana is a cheap strawweight fighter in one of just two fights on the card, favored to go to the judges. She’s also one of just a few underdogs to not have the line move against them this week, and some books have edged slightly in her favor.
Her style also lends itself to more upside than we usually see in these spots. She has stoppages in three of her four UFC wins, including two submissions. Most of those have come off of her back — so she doesn’t provide much takedown upside — but she has an outside chance of a “have to have it” score relative to her price.
Her willingness to fight from her back while losing minutes makes her a bit riskier than I normally want from my cheaper fighters, but that’s the story of this week’s fight card. I prefer her for GPPs, but may consider her for my cash lineup, given the salary relief provided.
The Upside Play
Cub Swanson ($7,200)
I touched on Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu ($9,000) a bit in my Luck Ratings this week. Dawodu is 6-3 in the UFC, but half of his wins have been split decisions — meaning he could very easily be 3-6 heading into this bout.
From a DFS standpoint, Swanson checks all of the “upside” boxes we look for. He’s finished six of his 13 fights (compared to just one of six for Dawodu). That means if this one ends earlier it’s likelier than not Swanson has his hand raised.
He also has all of the grappling upside here. A BJJ black belt, he averages just over a takedown per 15 minutes in the UFC. That’s not a ton, but I’d expect him to wrestle a bit more than usual against the pure muay thai style of Dawodu. While I don’t love rostering fighters based on what they “should” do, at $7,200, I can afford that risk.
Should this one remain standing, he also provides a reasonable floor thanks to his high striking volume. That makes him a solid play in both cash games and GPPs.
The Contrarian Choice
Montserrat Ruiz ($7,100)
I don’t expect much of the field to be on “Conejo” this week. She’s returning from more than two years of inactivity, having been knocked out by soon-to-be title challenger Amanda Lemos in the first round of her last fight.
However, she showcased her excellent wrestling in her prior appearance, landing four takedowns and over nine minutes of control time against Cheyenne Buys. That should be a huge asset here against Jaqueline Amorim ($9,100), a world-class jiu-jitsu player who struggles to wrestle.
Amorim is cut from a similar cloth as Paul Craig or Kron Gracie, with poor striking and wrestling but an excellent submission game. Like those two, she’s willing to accept takedowns and/or pull guard while surrendering top position to her opponent.
She looked completely gassed after the first round in her debut — a common problem for BJJ fighters since their matches are just one round. It could be scary for Ruiz early on, but I expect Ruiz to take over if she survives the early submission attempts.
Ruiz is equally underdeveloped in the striking exchanges but appears to be a bit more powerful and aggressive. It’s, at worst, a coin flip if this one stays standing, and I’d rather flip coins at her price.
The Swing Fight
Khalil Rountree ($8,900) vs. Chris Daukaus ($7,300)
With absurd -1100 odds to end inside the distance, this fight is a must roster in every GPP lineup. Daukaus is making his light heavyweight debut after a strange run at heavyweight, where he started 4-0 (all knockouts) and then went 0-3 (all knockouts).
The hope is that by dropping to a lighter weight class, the power coming back at him should be less substantial. Unfortunately, his debut matchup at the weight class is Rountree, who has five knockouts in seven UFC wins.
Daukaus has fast hands but serious questions surround his chin. To be fair, his knockouts came against three of the hardest hitters in the heavyweight division — but Rountree might not be far off. If this one stays standing, someone is likely to end up unconscious fairly quickly.
The even bigger question mark surrounds Daukaus’ grappling. He’s never even attempted a takedown in the UFC, but he’s a well-respected BJJ black belt. In his defense, he was routinely giving up 25+ lbs at heavyweight, which makes takedowns challenging.
He should have a massive grappling edge on Rountree should he choose to exploit it, making him my preferred play here. The line has also swung his way, dropping from +170 at open to +145 on Friday. Still, I’ll be mixing in some Rountree for tournaments. The favorite has a sky-high ceiling here, thanks to his chances of a quick KO.
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