After the excitement of UFC 290, the UFC returns to the Apex Center for a low-wattage fight night headlined by Holly Holm and Mayra Bueno Silva. There’s still DFS to be played and money to be made regardless of the name value, though, with a 13-fight card.
Contests lock at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, with the entire card airing on ESPN.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Holly Holm ($8,600) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva ($7,600)
It almost feels like the UFC is trying to punish us for having too much fun last week by giving us a Holly Holm main event. “The Preacher’s Daughter” is a former boxing and kickboxing champion who, in the later stages of her career, has adopted an extremely boring “wall and stall” style.
It’s been effective, though, with Holm winning three of her last four since her failed title challenge in 2019. That’s what makes her the solid favorite over her upstart opponent, Mayra Bueno Silva.
Silva has an old school muay-thai and jiu-jitsu style, where she throws plentiful knees and elbows while on her feet. She’s also happy to play off her back with a lethal submission game. Of course, the drawback there is that she’s generally losing minutes unless/until she finds a submission victory.
Of course, that gives her far more upside for DFS — especially relative to both women’s price points. With that said, Silva’s willingness to accept takedowns opens the door for a big Holm score. Holm put up 133 points in her win against Norma Dumont, thanks in large part to five takedowns.
Still, Holm is 41 years old, noticeably slowing down each fight, and could see her skills and ability fall off a cliff in the near future. For those reasons, I’m leaning strongly toward Silva, though I’ll, of course, be stacking them both in cash games. This fight is -190 to go the distance, so it’s fairly likely we get 25 minutes of scoring chances from each fighter.
I broke down the case for why I’m betting — and thus heavily rostering — the underdog on the latest edition of our UFC Betting Preview Podcast:
The Easy Chalk
Jack Della Maddalena ($9,700)
After losing not one but two opponents at UFC 290, Jack Della Maddalena may finally be getting a fight this weekend. The UFC is bringing in newcomer Bassil Hafez ($6,500) in a final push to get JDM into the cage before he returns to Australia.
Maddalena is 4-0 in the UFC, with four straight first-round finishes to start his career. He appears to be on target to become the next Oceanic UFC champion, with a well-rounded overall game and devastating punching power.
On paper, the matchup with Hafez should be a walkthrough. Hafez is 8-3 as a professional and taking this fight on short notice. Maddalena is -135 to pick up another first-round win, which would obviously come with a big DFS score.
I’m not so sure it will be that easy, though. Hafez has fought stiff competition, taking current UFC welterweight prospect Jeremiah Wells to a draw in a regional fight. All three of his losses have been decisions, with two of them split. He’s also a BJJ black belt with an improving striking game.
I expect this one to be much closer than the odds imply, especially with the difficulty on the JDM side of having three different opponents over the past week. That’s not necessarily a bad thing for DFS, though, as a three-round war could produce a big score.
Still, I’m being cautious with JDM while mixing in some Hafez in GPP lineups.
Azat Maksum ($9,600)
We don’t know a ton about Maksum, a Kazakh prospect who fought most of his pre-UFC bouts on smaller shows in his native country. However, the odds are telling us a compelling story about his fight with Tyson Nam ($6,600). Maksun is -400 or better throughout the industry to keep his perfect 16-0 record intact.
It appears to be a good matchup for DFS as well, with Maksum having the bulk of his wins via submission or ground and pound. That means plenty of takedowns, which is the best way to beat a power puncher like Nam.
Grapplers in lighter weight classes are perfect for DFS, as they tend to have a harder time holding down their opponents — giving them opportunities for more takedowns. I prefer Maksum to Maddalena due to the stylistic difference and will be prioritizing him in all contest types.
The Value Play
Chelsea Chandler ($7,800)
Chandler hits all of our “cash game value” boxes this week. She’s an underdog in a fight that’s -225 to go to a decision, facing an opponent who’s never finished a UFC fight in Norma Dumont ($8,400).
She’s not quite as cheap as I would like, but she makes up for it with plenty of upside. She’s a dangerous grappler with stoppages in three of her five pro wins — including her UFC debut. She’s a training partner of the Diaz brothers, adopting a similar boxing and jiu-jitsu style that gives her a few paths to upside.
If this one stays standing, Chandler should be throwing enough volume to put up a reasonable score, even in a loss. If things head to the ground, the sky is the limit with her dangerous submission skills. Either way, she’s an excellent cash game option with some sneaky GPP upside.
The Upside Plays
Francisco Prado ($8,200)
Francisco Prado made his UFC debut on short notice, in front of a hostile Australian crowd against a six-fight UFC veteran. All at the tender age of just 20. The point is, it seems very likely that we see much better things from Prado moving forward than we saw then — and he didn’t look bad.
He has a much easier draw this time, with a full fight camp against Ottman Azaitar ($8,000). Azatair hasn’t won a fight in nearly three years, with his only bout in that time span a knockout loss to Matt Frevola.
That inactivity seems to be mostly a result of Azaitar’s role as the wingman for the king of Morocco, which isn’t exactly the lifestyle you’d expect to lead to UFC success. On the other hand, PRado is a hyper-athletic, young, and hungry prospect.
He should be a heavier favorite than the current -115 or so odds imply. He’s also finished 10 of his 11 pro wins, with the bulk of those coming early.
That’s a good thing for DFS, especially at his moderate price tag.
The Contrarian Choice
Tucker Lutz ($7,000)
Earlier this week, Lutz was a nearly +200 underdog, befitting his DFS salary. Since then, his odds have dropped to the +135 range, making his $7,000 tag look like a steal.
This is a shame because it probably means his ownership is higher than it would’ve been otherwise. Lutz is a stylistic nightmare for Melsik Baghdasaryan ($9,200), who he fights on Saturday.
Baghdasaryan is a former elite kickboxer who made the transition to MMA but has struggled to round out a complete MMA game. He’s 2-1 in the UFC, but both of his wins came against fighters who went winless in the UFC before being cut. Additionally, grappler Josh Culibao made short work of him earlier this year with a submission victory.
Lutz has a strong wrestling background, and I was also impressed by his striking defense. He’s punished past opponents for throwing kicks by stepping in with straight counters, which could disrupt Baghdasaryan’s kick-heavy approach.
This is another fight favored to go the distance, making Lutz a solid cash game floor play. If he’s able to pull out the win — in any fashion — he’ll almost certainly end up in the GPP optimal lineup as well.
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The Swing Fight
Nazim Sadykhov ($8,700) vs. Terrance McKinney ($7,500)
This one was a no-brainer, with absurd -650 stoppage odds. Most of that is driven by McKinney, who fights like he’s double-parked in front of a fire hydrant. “T.Wrecks” has 12 of his 13 professional wins inside three minutes and has never stuck around to hear the judges’ scorecards.
On the other hand, he’s 1-3 in fights that extend past the three-minute mark, giving his opponents plenty of upside as well. That still leaves plenty of time for a first-round finish for Sadykhov, a dangerous striker with six knockouts in eight victories.
Either way, somebody should end up with a big score here, depending on how long it lasts. While I’m betting on Sadykhov, I prefer McKinney for DFS. He has a higher ceiling, given how much of his win condition is in the first round. It’s hard to see him missing the optimal lineup if he pulls off the win here.
Sadykhov is a strong play, too, though. It’s hard to see this one being a low-paced decision, so his upside is there as well. I won’t build a GPP lineup without — or a cash game lineup with — either of them this week.
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