The UFC returns to the Apex for UFC Vegas 76, serving as a bit of an appetizer for next week’s stacked pay-per-view. Perennial top-five middleweight Sean Strickland looks to repel another surging prospect in Abus Magomedov in the main event, with 12 total fights on the card. The action beings at 4:00 p.m. ET.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Sean Strickland ($8,500) vs. Abus Magomedov ($7,700)
This is an interesting booking from the UFC, with Strickland firmly established as a top-five or so middleweight while fighting almost exclusively top competition. Contrast that with Magomedov, who has just one fight in the UFC — a 19-second knockout victory.
While that’s about as good as one can look in a debut performance, it still leads to more questions than answers about Magomedov. He was the 2018 PFL tournament runner-up before leaving the promotion to fight on smaller shows ahead of his UFC call-up.
Most of Magomedov’s wins are by finish (20 of 25), and he came out guns blazing in his octagon debut. That suggests he’ll be the aggressor he against Strickland, a high-output but low-damage striker. While Strickland is quietly a high-level submission grappler, he almost never uses it inside the Octagon.
Strickland is a natural welterweight who moved up to middleweight a few years ago and has yet to finish a fight at 185. That suggests the likeliest outcome is a Strickland decision — though his strong striking output of nearly six significant strikes per minute gives him a solid ceiling even without a finish.
Magomedov is enough of a threat with his power and size edge that I’ll be rostering both fighters in cash games and mixing in a bit of both in most of my GPP lineups.
The Easy Chalk
Joanderson Brito ($9,600)
Brito opened as around a -1200 favorite for his fight against the late replacement fighter Westin Wilson ($6,600). That didn’t last long, though, with his moneyline as long as -1800 at some sportsbooks. He’s also -230 to finish this fight in the first round, which is better than the moneyline odds on all but two other fighters this weekend.
To put that another way, Brito is more likely to win in the first round than all but two other fighters are to win at all. That obviously makes him a top play on Saturday. He’s pricy, but on paper should be well worth it.
Nothing about Brito or Wilson gives me any reason to think the betting markets are wrong on this one, so I’ll be making a point to load up on Brito in all contest types.
Guram Kutateladze ($9,400)
On any other slate, Kutateladze would stand out as the top play. He’s a -700 or so favorite against Elves Brenner ($6,800), who is 1-0 in the UFC by way of a very controversial split decision.
While Kutateladze is just 1-1 for the promotion, his two fights came against Mateusz Gamrot and Damir Ismagulov. He picked up the win over Gamrot — who’s now the number seven ranked lightweight in the world.
More importantly, from a DFS standpoint, he’s also an elite wrestler. While he wasn’t able to show it off much in his prior bouts — both of his opponents are also excellent grapplers — he should be able to wrack up plenty of takedowns against Brenner.
Brenner’s jiu-jitsu style generally leads to accepting takedowns and playing off his back, which should give plenty of scoring opportunities to Kutateladze. While he doesn’t have Brito’s finishing upside, he could challenge him for the top score with a wrestling-heavy approach.
It’s difficult to fit both heavy favorites in the same lineup but could be well worth it if you’re able to identify some cheaper fighters who pick up the win. I’m prioritizing Brito for cash games but will find a way to jam both in a GPP lineup or two.
The Value Play
Max Griffin ($7,200)
Griffin is a fairly heavy underdog as he fights top prospect Michael Morales ($9,000) on Saturday. Those odds are probably about right, as Morales has been outstanding in his two UFC appearances, with two knockouts. However, Griffin is a big step up in competition as a crafty veteran with 14 UFC fights to his name.
Just once in that span was he finished, and that was against future title challenger Colby Covington via ground and pound. Morales doesn’t provide much of a wrestling threat, attempting just one in each of his UFC fights (and succeeding neither time).
Griffin has a bit of a grappling upside himself, but the real appeal is his durability. If he can last a full 15 minutes — or anywhere near it — he should provide a strong enough score to justify his price tag. He also has enough power that a stoppage win of his own isn’t out of the question, with knockdowns in each of his last four fights.
That gives Griffin the unusual combination of a strong enough floor for cash games and a high enough upside to be worth GPP consideration.
The Upside Plays
Brunno Ferreira ($8,400)
We don’t talk about Brunno nearly enough. “The Hulk” made a splash in his UFC debut, stepping in on short notice to fight top middleweight Gregory Rodrigues and flat-lining him with a massive left hand in the first round.
Ferreira is 10-0 as a pro, with a full eight of those victories coming in the first round — and the other two within the first minute of the second. Besides his massive power, he has a nasty submission as well, with three tap-out victories to his credit.
He has a tough opponent this time in Nursulton Ruziboev ($7,800), a 46-fight (!) veteran who’s still just 29 years old. Ruziboev is making his UFC debut on somewhat short notice here, though, making Ferreira the pretty clear A-side. With -750 odds to end inside the distance, that makes him a valuable tournament option.
The Contrarian Choice
Benoit St. Denis ($7,000)
It’s funny how quickly the betting public moves UFC fighters from “prospect” to “just a guy” in their mental categorizations. “BSD” was a big deal coming into the UFC as an 8-0 Frenchman, with each of his wins coming inside the distance.
Then he lost his debut — on short notice and up a weight class – to Elizeu Zaleski, and we all collectively lost interest. Since then, he’s gone 2-0 with a pair of second-round finishes while still never losing a fight at his natural lightweight.
Despite all that, he’s a +250 or so underdog to Ismael Bonfim ($9,200), who’s replaced him as the “hot prospect” despite their nearly identical age (they were born within ten days of each other.) Bonfim knocked out Terrance McKinney in his debut, but McKinney is a fairly reckless fighter who tends to find himself on the wrong side of the occasional flashy knockout.
BSD is a far more disciplined grappler and should also have a significant size edge here. Bonfim would probably be a featherweight if not for his brother Gabriel, who currently represents the family in that weight class.
I thought I was missing something when I saw these odds, as I’d make this one much closer than they suggest. This is why I was glad Sean Zerillo saw it the same way, as we discussed on the latest Action Network UFC Podcast.
The Swing Fight
Damir Ismagulov ($8,200) vs. Grant Dawson ($8,000)
Saturday’s co-main event features two top lightweights, as Grant Dawson (8-0-1) UFC meets the returning Damir Ismagulov (5-1 UFC). Ismagulov briefly “retired” following his last fight — his lone UFC loss in a split decision to Arman Tsarukyan — but is back after a roughly six-month layoff.
This is an interesting fight stylistically, with Dawson as one of the best and most persistent wrestlers in the division. That’s obviously ideal for DFS, as he’s put up some massive scores thanks to racking up huge takedown numbers in the past.
It won’t be that easy against Ismagulov, though, who was able to defend two-thirds of the takedowns attempted by Tsarukyan while almost immediately returning to his feet when Tsarukyan was successful. That could test the somewhat suspect cardio of Dawson, giving Ismagulov some late upside. As I mention frequently, wrestling for 15 minutes is a near-impossible task.
And Dawson will need to wrestle here since Ismagulov is also the better striker here by a wide margin — arguably wider than the edge Dawson has in grappling. That’s why I’m betting on Ismagulov, as I broke down in my co-main event preview.
However, Dawson is the better DFS play, thanks to the floor and ceiling provided by his wrestling. He could even potentially outscore Ismagulov in a loss if he’s able to land repeated takedowns that Ismagulov stands back up from (assuming Ismagulov then wins the striking exchanges.)
I’ll have some of both men, but my lean is Dawson, even though I’m betting it the other way.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
UFC 279 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Diaz vs. Ferguson, More Saturday Fights
UFC 281 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Adesanya vs. Pereira, More Saturday Fights
UFC 284 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Volkanovski vs. Makhachev, More Saturday Fights
UFC Vegas 69 DFS Breakdown: Model, Preview, Picks for Blanchfield vs. Andrade, More Saturday Fights
