The UFC is back at the Apex with a surprisingly solid fight night card. The main event features former middleweight title challengers Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier, with 12 total fights on the card. Lineups lock at 7:00 p.m. ET on Saturday night.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Jared Cannonier ($8,200) vs. Marvin Vettori ($8,000)
The main event is effectively a bronze medal match for the middleweight division, with two fighters on 6+ fight unbeaten streaks — except when facing Israel Adensaya and Robert Whittaker. Cannonier and Vettori have both come up short in their attempts to win gold but can stay in the conversation with a win Saturday.
It’s not a great DFS fight, though, as neither man is a prolific grappler. While Cannonier has solid power with six knockouts in nine UFC wins, Vettori is famously durable. He’s never been finished as a pro fighter, despite multiple fights with Adesanya and bouts against Whittaker and Paulo Costa.
That leaves the likeliest outcome here a mostly striking based affair that goes the full 25 minutes. The fight is -180 or so to go the full five rounds. I’m leaning pretty heavily towards Vettori in that scenario, though both men have solid striking volume, so the floor on both is relatively strong.
That makes this a perfect fight to stack in cash games, though I can see a case for playing Vettori only. He’s the cheaper fighter but has moved to around -130 on the moneyline. I’m mostly shying away from this one in GPPs, though I might have a sprinkle or two on each fighter. There’s an upside case for Vettori if he chooses to wrestle, and a quick knockout from Cannonier is probably his best chance to win.
For a more in-depth technical analysis of this fight — as well as how I’m betting it — check out my preview at the Action Network.
The Easy Chalk
Arman Tsarukyan ($9,800)
Before this week, I wasn’t sure if DraftKings had a soft ceiling on UFC fighters’ salaries. I still don’t know if they do, but now we know it’s at least $9,800.
Despite that, Tsarukyan is an awesome play this week. He’s more than a -1000 favorite on a card with no other fighters past -300 or so. While the price tag is heavy, he has a sky-high combination of ceiling and floor. He’s a -110 favorite to end this one inside of the first round.
Tsarukyan is one of the best lightweights in the world, with a 6-2 record marred only by losses to current champion Islam Makhachev and Mateusz Gamrot. The Makhachev loss was Tsarukyan’s debut and an extremely close fight, while I thought he should’ve got the nod against Gamrot.
He’s fighting Joaquin Silva ($6,400), who has recent losses against Ricky Glenn and Nasrat Hapqarast — if you aren’t familiar with either of them, that’s the point.
Tsarukyan is a must-play in cash games and will be the foundation in probably 80% of my GPP lineups this weekend.
The Value Play
Denys Bondar ($7,900)
The fight between Bondar and Carlos Hernandez ($8,400) isn’t one I’ve spent a ton of time analyzing this week. Neither fighter seems likely to ever be a top contender, nor do they bring especially interesting styles to the table. However, it’s an excellent DFS matchup.
That’s because Bondar is simply mispriced on DraftKings. This fight would likely have been the $8,000/$8,200 fight this week were the main event not so evenly lined, with Bondar opening as a slight underdog. However, he’s since been pretty heavily bet, moving his moneyline to around -130. That means he “should” cost around $500 more this week.
The line movement makes sense as well. Bondar dropped his UFC debut due to a freak arm injury but was riding a ten-fight win streak in regional fights, all stoppages. Hernandez made it to the UFC via a highly contested split decision win over Daniel Barez, then won his debut with another split decision before being submitted in the first round of his last fight.
Hernandez has been incredibly lucky so far in his UFC tenure, but his luck is bound to run out.
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The Upside Play
Manuel Torres ($8,900)
This is another fight I haven’t spent a ton of time breaking down but stands out for DFS. That’s thanks to the ridiculous -450 odds that this one ends early, with most of that value on the favored Torres.
Torres ended both his DWCS bout and UFC debut with impressive first-round knockouts. His only career losses have both been via (somewhat unorthodox) submissions, one by heel hook and one via kneebar.
Nick Motta ($7,300) isn’t much of a threat in that department, having never won a fight via tap out. He’s 1-1 in the UFC, with that loss coming via knockout to 38-year-old Jim Miller. Torres is a much greater threat and is pretty likely to pick up a finish (and the corresponding DFS bonus) on Saturday.
Ronnie Lawrence ($8,700)
The two biggest drivers of high DFS scores in MMA are quick finishes and takedowns. Torres is an example of the former, while Lawrence is a prime example of the latter.
He’s averaged a ridiculous 7.03 takedowns per 15 minutes in his UFC tenure, or more than two per round. While that says as much about his skills on the ground — he can’t hold anyone down — as it does his wrestling ability, that’s an ideal setup for DFS.
Control time scores relatively poorly on DraftKings, so we prefer fighters who get takedowns but then allow their opponents back to the feet. If a finish happens instead, that’s fine too, but “The Heat” will relentlessly pursue takedowns until he gets a finish or runs out of time.
He’s fighting Dan Argueta ($7,500), who has relatively poor takedown defense at 50% and was taken down twice by a lesser grappler in Damon Jackson. This sets up perfectly for Lawrence, who has at least six takedowns in three of his four UFC fights.
The Contrarian Choice
Nicolas Dalby ($7,000)
Dalby has a fun matchup against a fellow veteran of the sport Muslim Salikhov ($9,200). Both men are nearing 40, with traditional martial arts backgrounds that lead to fun, if not always successful, fighting styles.
They differ in some ways, though, with Salikhov at his best when given the time and space to launch his spinning and leaping attacks, like his trademark spinning wheel kick. Dalby is more of a pressure fighter, marching forward with a high volume of strikes while keeping things at a tight range.
The grappling matchup is also interesting here, with Salikhov having the better takedowns thanks to his background in combat Sanda — a sport that mixes strikes with takedowns but doesn’t have any groundwork. However, Dalby is an accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioner and should be better if it does hit the canvas.
Those factors should cancel out or even benefit Dalby if Salikhov wrestles himself into trouble. If it’s a standup affair, I prefer the volume and pace of Dalby over the high-impact strikes from Salikhov. For more on the technical (and betting) elements at play here, check out my preview at the Action Network.
While Dalby’s style doesn’t lend itself to massive scores, it doesn’t need to at his salary this week. A decision win would be more than enough to pay off his price tag, which is exactly what Dann Stupp predicted when he joined me on the latest edition of our Action Network UFC betting Podcast:
The Swing Fight
Alessandro Costa ($9,400) vs. Jimmy Flick ($6,800)
The wide line on this fight makes it an unusual choice for a “swing fight” since Costa is a nearly favorite throughout the industry this week. However, the -360 odds to end inside the distance make it worth paying attention to from both sides.
Costa is the clear A side here. While he’s 0-1 in the UFC, his debut came against top contender Amir Albazi, and Costa gave him a solid challenge. He’s a solid submission grappler, with half of his victories coming via tap out, and has big power for the division with three career knockouts.
Flick is essentially a one-trick pony — but it’s a pretty awesome trick. He’s won via submission in 14 of his 16 professional victories, including a highlight-reel flying triangle in his UFC debut. It’s tap or bust, though, as his standup game leaves much to be desired.
Flick’s style should lead to a big score here for either himself or Costa. If Flick can turn this into a grappling match, a quick submission is entirely possible. However, by going for flash submissions, Flick exposes himself to a ton of danger on the ground — to say nothing of the peril he’s in whenever a fight is standing.
Costa is a solid choice here, but I’ll sprinkle in a bit of Flick as well, given his low salary and likely minuscule ownership on Saturday.
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