We have an interesting DFS slate tonight this weekend, thanks to a pair of fight cancellations. Two of the cheapest fighters on the slate are now heavy favorites and are likely to be massively chalky. The optimal cash game build will be fairly obvious, but it’s an interesting slate to get contrarian for GPPs.
It’s still a 13-fight slate, though, with the prelims kicking off at 6:00 p.m. Eastern time.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Kai Kara-France ($8,200) vs. Amir Albazi ($8,000)
Saturday’s main event is a good one, with a fun fight between flyweight contenders Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi. The DraftKings salaries and betting lines are both extremely tight, with this one as roughly a pick’em throughout the week.
Kara-France is a veteran of the flyweight top five. The one-time title challenger has three UFC losses, two to current champion Brandon Moreno and one to Brandon Royval. Outside of those fights, he’s 7-0 with two knockouts. If this one makes it to the championship rounds, it will be the first time he sees them since his interim title fight with Moreno ended in the third.
Albazi has just four UFC fights to his name, with a perfect 4-0 record. He has two submissions and a knockout, albeit against significantly lighter competition. That makes this a hard fight to handicap since we haven’t seen Albazi in there with the top dogs yet — though it doesn’t mean he can’t do it.
On paper, this is mostly a striker (Kara-France) vs. grappler (Albazi) matchup. However, Albazi has shown huge improvements to his striking, especially in his last fight. On the flip side, Kara-France has an excellent 87% takedown defense in the UFC and excelled in a similar matchup against Askar Askarov.
I’m leaning slightly towards Kara-France in this one due to the five-round nature of the fight. Grappling over an extended period is more taxing than striking, especially against someone as challenging to take down as Kara-France. Both fighters have tremendous upside, though, Kara-France with his high volume and high power striking, and Albazi via takedowns.
I’ll have one of the pair in all of my GPP lineups and certainly will stack them both for cash games.
The Easy Chalk
Karine Silva ($9,300)
Silva is one of the hottest female prospects in a long time, picking up consecutive stoppages on the Contender Series and in her UFC debut. She’s one of the heaviest favorites on the slate at -230 and has a ton of upside via finishes and takedowns.
Her opponent is Ketlen Souza ($6,900), a fellow Brazilian who is making her UFC debut. Souza is a solid prospect in her own right, winning the Invicta flyweight championship in her last bout. However, Silva seems to be on another level.
Normally I’d be happy to fade Silva at her current price since I think the markets are being a bit unfair to Souza. However, Silva is still a rightful favorite, and with all of the salary that has opened up on this slate, she’ll be hard to get away from.
Daniel Santos ($9,200)
All things considered, the thesis on Santos is similar to the one on Silva. He’s (rightly) favored at -225, even though the betting line and DFS salary feel a bit long in my opinion. That’s a situation I’d shy away from under normal circumstances, but given the salary flexibility this week, he’s easy to afford.
He has a fan (and DFS)-friendly style, with a high-volume striking attack punctuated with spinning and flying techniques. He’s also a high-level jiu-jitsu player in the style of his teammate at Chute Boxe Charles Oliveira. He’s arguably a far better wrestler than “Do Bronx,” as well, giving him a solid out if the striking exchanges get dicey.
While he’s overpriced in an absolute sense, he’s very affordable in the context of this weekend’s slate. He’s also likely to be massively owned, so I’d consider making a rule not to play both Santos and Silva together using our DFS optimizer.
The Value Plays
Jamie Mullarkey ($6,700)
Mullarkey was originally slated to fight Guram Kutateladze on Saturday’s card and was the biggest underdog on the slate. Now with Kutateladze out, Mullarkey has swung to being the heaviest favorite on the slate — while keeping the same price tag.
He’s fighting UFC newcomer Muhammad Naimov ($6,500), a natural featherweight who’s coming up to lightweight on short notice for this fight. That’s a big challenge in and of itself, but Naimov looks less than UFC caliber even under the best of circumstances.
He lost his first shot at the Octagon in a Contender Series bout to Collin Anglin — who’s since gone 0-4 and been cut by the UFC. Naimov’s other wins are against less-than-impressive competition as well.
None of that really matters, though. The key is that we’re getting the slate’s biggest favorite at (nearly) the cheapest salary. Mullarkey is a must-play in all contest types, and I think he ends this one early, as I talked about on our Action Network UFC betting Podcast:
Jim Miller ($7,100)
We have two fighters on the card who’ve flipped from underdogs to solid favorites, with Miller being the other. The swing isn’t quite as drastic with Miller, who’s now “only” a -245 favorite. Still, he’s priced as the +200 underdog he was, and he’s a slightly heavier favorite than either Silva or Souza.
His replacement opponent Jesse Butler ($6,600) took this bout on two days’ notice and, like Naimov, is coming up in weight for a shot at a UFC contract. Butler is the better UFC prospect here, but that’s still a lot to overcome against a tough veteran like Miller.
For cash games, I see no reason to fade either Miller or Mullarkey. However, I’d consider coming off of Miller — and possibly onto Butler — in GPPs, since both underpriced favorites will be massively chalky.
The Contrarian Choice
Daniel Pineda ($7,300)
To be honest, I don’t love a ton of the underdog options on Saturday’s slate. This is convenient since we don’t actually need to play any given the two cheap favorites. Still, we need to go off the board a bit in GPPs, and Pineda is a reasonable option.
He’s fighting in the co-main event against long-time UFC veteran Alex Caceres ($8,900). Caceres — better known as “Bruce Leeroy,” has been “just a guy” for the bulk of his UFC career, with a 15-11 record following his loss in the semifinals of The Ultimate Fighter 12 lightweight tournament.
However, Caceres has turned it around lately, winning six of his last seven. Pineda is the more dynamic fighter, though, with an aggressive submission game and bigger power. Pineda is a threat to end this one early, though I expect Caceres to take over late. (Sean Zerillo did an excellent job breaking down the case for Pineda in the podcast linked above.)
That’s enough to take a swing or two in GPPs since an early win would obviously give him a solid score. It’s a bit thin, but we have to reach to make unique lineups this weekend.
The Swing Fight
Tim Elliot ($9,000) vs. Victor Altamirano ($7,200)
The other flyweight fight on the card has a very strong “people’s main event” feel to it, with two wild strikers squaring off. Both Elliot and Altamirano have extremely unorthodox striking styles. Elliot keeps his hands down while winging heavy shots from awkward angles, while Altamirano is a tae kwon doe stylist who mixes in plenty of spinning and leaping strikes.
The real appeal for DFS is both men’s takedown ability, though. Both transition from striking to shooting for takedowns seamlessly, and they average more than 6.5 takedowns per 15 minutes combined. They also both have excellent get-up games, which is ideal for DFS. You can’t land another takedown without your opponent getting back up.
This is likely to be a closer fight than the DFS salaries would suggest, with enough volume from both fighters to result in very strong DFS scores. Were it not for the other cheap options on the slate, Altamirano would be a near lock for cash games, as both men have tremendous floor projections.
As it stands, Altamirano is a solid contrarian choice for GPPs, and Elliot could also fly a bit under the radar since the salary to go up to Silva or Dos Santos is easy to find. I’ll be rostering one of the pair in most of my GPP lineups, and possibly even both.
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