This weekend’s UFC features a makeshift main event between ranked strawweight Mackenzie Dern and Angela Hill. They were originally slated to fight last week before being bumped back a week to help fill out a somewhat thin 12-fight card. Prelims start at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Mackenzie Dern ($9,100) vs. Angela Hill ($7,100)
The strawweight fight between Dern and Hill was originally slated for three rounds last week before being bumped to the main event of UFV Vegas 73. That means a five-round fight, which makes this contest much more appealing from a DFS standpoint than it would’ve been otherwise.
Dern is an old-school jiu-jitsu stylist with world-class submissions but very limited striking (negative 1.37 per-minute striking differential) and wrestling (11% takedown accuracy.) She’s a problem if it hits the canvas, though, with four career UFC submissions — all in the first round.
That makes her an extremely boom-or-bust option, as a quick submission should pay off her salary, but any other outcome disappoints.
Hill is almost the complete opposite, with a muay thai background and solid defensive wrestling but limited finishing ability. She’s the better minute-winner here, though, especially if she’s able to stifle Dern’s takedowns. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Dern pull guard, allowing Hill to bank control time and rounds on the scorecards.
Given their salaries, I’m leaning towards Hill for GPPs. She’s a higher floor option, and even a low-output win probably justifies her salary. It’s worth mixing in some Dern as well, though, since a quick submission should propel her into the optimal lineup.
Sean Zerillo and I broke this one down on the latest edition of our Action Network UFC Betting Podcast:
The Easy Chalk
Rodrigo Nascimento ($9,000)
This feels like a better card for underdogs than heavy favorites, but I do like Nascimento at his price tag. He’s taking on Ilir Latifi ($7,200), a 40-year-old who’s clearly on the downswing of his career.
Nascimento is a baby by heavyweight standards at just 30, with a 2-1-1 UFC record that would be 3-1 if not for a no-contest due to ADHD medication (Nascimento has since been cleared of wrongdoing, though the fight stands officially as a no-contest.)
Both men are grapplers with negative striking differentials, but Nascimento is the more aggressive submission hunter and probably has the better combination of chin and power at this stage in their careers. He also has a five-inch reach advantage and should be the larger fighter on fight night.
Mostly though, I’m banking on some progression from Nascimento and regression from Latifi. They both have eerily similar split decision wins over Tanner Boser in recent memory, but Nascimento is likely to have made improvements since then, while Latifi is slowing down.
The Value Play
Vanessa Demopolous ($7,700)
We’re going with the classic salary-saving option this week. A female fighter with the longest stoppage odds (+180) on the slate, who’s also seen the moneyline move in her favor.
Demopolous has a pretty limited ceiling here, but she’s highly likely to get all 15 minutes to work against Karolina Kowalkiewicz ($8,500). on Saturday. In her lone career decision loss, Demopolous scored a respectable 35 DraftKings points.
I also think she’s a reasonably live underdog on Saturday, thanks to her opponent’s advanced age. Kowalkiewicz is 37 and made her UFC debut in 2015. She had lost five in a row before a pair of matchups against even older fighters in her last two bouts.
Contrast that with Demopolous, who isn’t much younger but is considerably newer to the sport. She turned pro more than two years after her opponent’s UFC debut and seems to be improving with each fight. Since losing her UFC debut, she’s won three straight bouts. Including a first-round finish of Silvana Gomez-Juarez — a fighter who took Kowalkiewicz to a decision.
Really though, any win would just be a bonus from Demopolous. What we’re looking for is a reasonable floor for cash games, and she certainly provides it.
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The Contrarian Choice
Edmen Shahbazyan ($6,800)
I was shocked to see the lines early in the week on Shahbazyan vs. Anthony Hernandez ($9,400). Hernandez was -260 on DraftKings on Monday — roughly at the time of DFS salaries being released.
Since then, things have tightened up, With Hernandez only a -210 or so favorite. That’s a good sign about Shahbazyan’s prospects, especially relative to his near-minimum DraftKings price.
Shahbazyan was once the UFC’s next big thing, making his octagon debut at just 21 years old. He won four straight fights — with three first-round stoppages — before getting a major step up in competition. That led to a three-fight losing streak, but all against ranked opponents and all before his 24th birthday.
He was able to right the ship his last time out, though, and has shown considerable improvements in his game. That makes Hernandez a bit of a step down in terms of opponent quality, at least relative to the fights he’s lost.
Additionally, Shahbazyan is a quick finisher, with nine of his 11 professional wins in the opening frame. That gives him a massive ceiling (relative to his price tag) on Saturday.
He’ll be a major part of my GPP builds.
The Upside Play
Themba Gorimbo ($8,000)
Themba Gorimbo and Takashi Sato ($8,200) are one of the lowest-level UFC fights in recent memory. Neither man appears to have what we’d traditionally consider “UFC level” skills — but somebody has to win their fight on Saturday.
I’m leaning toward Gorimbo, who has flipped to a slight favorite after opening as the underdog. That’s a crucial data point in a fight with -250 stoppage odds, tied for best on the slate. Lower-level fights tend to lead to more (and quicker) finishes, so it’s fairly likely the winner of this one posts a big score.
Rather than try to handicap this one myself, I’m fine with trusting the betting markets to point me in the right direction. This one is far too volatile for cash games, but he’s an excellent GPP play.
The Swing Fight
Orion Cosce ($8,400) vs. Gilbert Urbina ($7,800)
Orion Cosce and Gilbert Urbina is another lower-level fight. Urbina is a TUF 29 veteran who lost in the second round of the reality show, then dropped his UFC debut by a second-round submission. Cosce has a dominant regional scene record but is 1-1 in the UFC, with his only win coming against Blood Diamond, an extremely one-dimensional kickboxer who shouldn’t be in the Octagon.
That makes for another highly volatile fight, with -190 odds to end inside the distance. The betting markets have swung slightly towards Urbina throughout the week, but Cosce is still a -120 or so favorite as of Friday.
I’m not super excited to click either fighter, but I trust Cosce’s skill set and resume slightly more. He’s also likely to garner far lower ownership since he’s now overpriced relative to his betting odds. Still, the combination of line movement and cheaper salary on Urbina is appealing as well, so I’ll sprinkle him into some of my lineups.
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