UFC Vegas 72 goes down at the Apex Center in Las Vegas, with a makeshift main event featuring top-ten bantamweights Song Yadong and Ricky Simon. A rash of cancellations has this card down to just 11 fights, with DFS lineups locking at 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly, to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Ricky Simon ($8,400) vs. Song Yadong ($7,800)
This should be a fairly close fight, with Simon opening as a slightly larger favorite but quickly getting bet down to about -120. These two were originally slated to meet as the co-main event on last week’s card, but the loss of the original headliners for UFC Vegas 72 saw them rescheduled as the main event here.
That’s significant since it switches this fight to five rounds instead of three. The combination of Simon’s persistent grappling — 6.55 per 15 minutes — and the extra rounds has made him the highest-projected fighter on the board. Yadong is close behind him, though, with the second-best Pts/Sal projection.
To an extent, this is a striker (Yadong) vs. grappler matchup, with Yadong having above-average volume and power for the division. Both men are solid all-around fighters, though, so winning on the other’s turf, so to speak, isn’t out of the question.
For GPPs, I actually prefer Yadong a bit here. He has the power to end this one at any point, while Simon will likely need to win minutes while avoiding big shots. Both fighters have shown strong cardio to this point in their career, though Yadong is the only one to have a UFC fight make it to the championship rounds.
Simon’s wrestling-heavy style also burns a lot more energy, so Yadong gets a slight boost from this being five rounds. However, stacking both together could be a sneaky GPP play. Getting contrarian on an 11-fight card is difficult, and these two have the work rates to put up a solid score even in a loss.
The Easy Chalk
Caio Borralho ($9,500)
Borralho has been slotted into the main event spot in three of his four UFC fights, including his booking on UFC Vegas 72 against Michal Oleksiejczuk ($6,700). This is the heaviest he’s been favored in his young career, though, with his -365 odds being the best on the slate as well.
That makes him a near-lock for cash games since finding a surplus of salary is fairly easy here. However, GPPs are a bit more of a question mark. Borralho has yet to top 80 DraftKings points in any of his UFC fights, all of which ended by decision.
He almost certainly needs a finish to pay off his massive salary this time, though on such a small card, the optimal lineup is likely to score much lower than usual. He’s -135 to pull off a stoppage, with a submission being the likelier method of victory.
As Sean Zerillo pointed out, he has a habit of seeming content to not finish submissions and control fights from dominant positions:
On a larger card, he would almost certainly be a fade for me — submissions tend not to produce as many points as knockouts, with the lack of accompanying knockdown points and additional strikes. This time there isn’t much else to spend the salary on, though, so I’m likely to have him in most of my lineups.
The Value Play
Journey Newson ($7,400)
It’s been a while since we’ve had this specific scenario play out — a fighter who’s listed as an underdog when salaries are released but becomes a favorite with a change of opponent. We saw the inverse situation recently, but DraftKings has tried to update fighters’ salaries when possible.
That’s Newson’s situation, with Brian Kelleher being replaced by UFC newcomer Marcus McGhee ($7,200). This is a make-or-break fight for Newson, who’s just 1-3 in the UFC. A short-notice replacement fighter who lacks high-level experience is about as good of a matchup as exists for him.
Newson’s moneyline odds would generally place him in the upper $8,000s, making him a steal at his old price. He’ll be massively chalky, though, making a fade interesting for GPPs. If you go that route, consider rostering McGhee. McGhee will be highly contrarian, and the winner of this one is almost guaranteed a spot in the optimal thanks to their very low combined salaries.
Similarly, this is the rare three-round fight where stacking both fighters makes a lot of sense in cash games. You’re buying a guaranteed win for just $14,600, freeing up your salary for more expensive fighters/heavy favorites.
Cody Durden ($7,500)
I’m pretty low on Durden as a fighter, but the betting markets are hard to ignore here. His line has moved about 20 cents — from -140 to -120 — since salaries were released, making him a good value relative to his odds. This bout also has the longest stoppage odds on the slate at +140, giving him a reasonably solid floor.
Durden’s grappling-heavy style is ideal for DFS, with a career mark of 4.17 takedowns per 15 minutes. It should serve him well against Charles Johnson ($8,700), whose 60% takedown defense in the UFC is a bit lacking. Flyweight’s inability to stay on the canvas is a feature, not a bug, here as well. Since Johnson is likely to be able to scramble back to his feet, that creates more opportunities for takedowns from Durden.
I’m torn on rostering Durden here since we don’t really need to save salary on this slate. The combination of the value on Newson (or his opponent) and the lack of huge favorites means things are fairly loose.
However, if he racks up a handful of takedowns en route to a decision win, he could be the best Pts/Sal option on the slate.
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The Contrarian Choice
Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($7,600)
This isn’t a card where I feel great about any underdogs, but I can make a case for Cortes-Acosta. He’s 2-0 in the UFC with two fairly disappointing performances (from a fantasy standpoint) against the bottom of the UFC heavyweight barrel.
However, at 31, he’s still fairly young for a heavyweight, and he made his professional MMA debut less than five years ago. He’s a former starting pitcher in the Reds organization who switched to fighting later in life, making him far from a finished product.
His opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($8,700), is 37 and was on The Ultimate Fighter Brazil before Cortes-Acosta ever even had an amateur fight. We’ve likely seen his best days in the Octagon already, and he’s never been a top heavyweight in the organization.
This pick takes a bit of a leap of faith, as it relies on Cortes-Acosta progressing from his last fight and de Lima slowing down a bit. Crazier things have happened, though, and we’ll need to take some chances on an 11-fight card. Cortes-Acosta has the athletic advantage and power to overwhelm his veteran opponent here and put up a big score.
The Upside Play
Rodolfo Vieira ($9,100)
Vieira’s likeliest win condition is in the first round, with +180 odds to get this done in five minutes or less. Based on his moneyline odds, betting markets are saying about half of his wins come in the opening frame. With the first-round win bonus being so valuable, that is clearly great news for DFS.
He’s one of the most credentialed grapplers on the roster, with four IBJJF world titles and one ADCC championship. While that doesn’t always translate perfectly to MMA fights, he has an ideal matchup against Cody Brundage ($7,100) on tap for UFC Vegas 72.
Brundage is also primarily a grappler, though he’s many levels below Vieira. He was a Division II college wrestler and holds a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Vieira’s nickname is “The Black Belt Hunter.” The point is, this is Vieira’s fight if it hits the ground, and it’s very likely to end up there at some point
Even if it remains standing, Vieira has a decent shot, with Brundage coming off a bad knockout loss in his last fight. Neither man is great on the feet, and at worst, it’s fairly close in either direction. Vieira has a sky-high ceiling this time around, with a reasonably strong floor case as well.
The Swing Fight
Josh Quinlan ($8,500) vs. Trey Waters ($7,700)
This is another fight featuring a late replacement, as Waters is stepping in on about a week’s notice. Quinlan was originally set to fight Ange Loosa as a slight underdog. This one came together in time to fix the salary on Quinlan, though.
Crucially, this pairing has stoppage odds of -400, easily the longest line on the slate. That should mean a solid score for whoever ends up winning that one, and both men have reasonable salaries.
Quinlan is officially 6-0 as a professional, with four knockouts and two submissions. He also picked up a knockout on the Contender Series that was later overturned due to a positive PED test. Normally I look to fade fighters who test positive for PEDs, but he followed that up with a big win (presumably while clean) in his next performance.
Waters is 7-1 as a professional, with his lone loss coming to Gabriel Bonfim in the Contender Series. Bonfim had a dominant UFC debut after that fight, though, so the loss has aged well. He’s finished six of his seven career victories, with an even mix of submissions and knockouts.
Were he given a full training camp, I’d be leaning slightly toward Waters here. I’m not sold on Quinlan as a prospect, and a win over Jason Witt in his debut doesn’t prove much. However, the short notice nature makes it tough to pick Waters — though he’s a possible contrarian option for GPPs.
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